Canada’s mortgage apocalypse isn’t going to be fun, but it could have been a lot worse. The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its model on mortgages in arrears this week. Through a combination of monetary policy and bank generosity, mortgages in arrears are still expected to rise to record highs. However, without the policies implemented, […]
How does an irrational market respond to deteriorating fundamentals? We sifted through dozens of pages of Canadian real estate price forecasts to find out. All forecasts recognized this is the largest employment shock the country has ever seen. However, the impact on real estate prices ranged from “it’s bullish”, to “how do prices rise when […]
Another global risk agency is warning wealthy investors that Canadian real estate prices will drop. DBRS, the ratings division of Morningstar, released its forecast for mortgage and price performance in Canada. The firm warns investors to expect climbing arrears, and double digit real estate price drops across Canada. Forecasting Scenarios Institutional research provides a range […]
Canadian households are asking banks if they can skip a few payments, and banks are (mostly) saying yes. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) data shows hundreds of thousands of payments are being deferred. The number, as big as it is, represents select member banks – meaning there’s many more deferrals. Even just using this data, it […]
One of the world’s largest risk advisory firms says Canadian real estate won’t be spared. Moody’s Analytics released their Canadian Q2 forecast, showing how COVID-19 will impact the Canadian economy. The firm advised their institutional clients that real estate will be impacted, with even an optimistic scenario showing price declines. Risk Assumptions and Baselines First, […]
Canada’s largest real estate markets should prepare for a very different economy over the next few years. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows unemployment in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal made big climbs in March. As bad as the loss is, it’s muted by a rapid decline in the participation rate. This means the loss of […]
Canadians got temporary price relief, but it could be a sign of more serious issues brewing. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) reported one of the largest declines in the history of the consumer price index (CPI) for March. The decline puts the index’ growth to one of the lowest levels in years. While low to no […]
The Canadian government isn’t exactly planning for a v-shaped employment recovery. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO), who gives non-partisan financial forecasts to parliament, updated their forecasts. While the focus of the forecast is how the federal government’s finances will look, there’s some interesting assumptions that are important from a macro perspective. The government is planning […]
An already slowing global economy is seeing more downward revisions to forecasts, due to the pandemic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the latest organization to lower Canada’s 2020 GDP forecast. The organization sees the economy making the biggest contraction seen in generations. On the upside, they see a return to growth next year. Next […]
Canadians knew they were in for a whopper of an employment report, but most didn’t expect these numbers. The Statistics Canada (Stat Can) Labour Force Survey shows a historic drop of employment in March. Job losses for the country came in at roughly double what analysts were expecting. Digging deeper into the data, we also […]
