One of the “Big Three” credit agencies warned they expect a big jump for insolvencies. TransUnion gave the industry a look at recent macroeconomic and consumer credit activity this week. During the presentation, the firm’s analysts highlighted various deteriorating macro events. They warned lenders to expect a rising wave of defaults, as a “severe” risk […]
Canadian homeowners on insured mortgage deferrals are starting to feel the heat. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) updated the federal government on the state of housing last week. During this update, they warned first-time homebuyers to be extra careful purchasing. To highlight this, they ran through a scenario on how a small downturn […]
Canadian households are facing a problem they didn’t think was possible a few weeks ago – falling consumer prices. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the consumer price index (CPI) fell in April. The deflationary move is the first seen in Canada, in over a decade. A month isn’t a trend, but if it continues, […]
Canada’s national housing agency wants to remind people there’s a limit to what they can do. Evan Siddall, CEO of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) updated Canada’s standing committee on finance. In the update, he explained how the CMHC is using tens of billions in capital to support real estate markets. Even so, […]
Just how much did Canada lean on household debt to grow the economy over the past few decades? A lot. Bank of Canada (BoC) crunched the numbers, and they show household debt accelerated faster than any other segment of debt. The distribution of debt makes Canadian households one of the most vulnerable of the advanced […]
Canada’s mortgage apocalypse isn’t going to be fun, but it could have been a lot worse. The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its model on mortgages in arrears this week. Through a combination of monetary policy and bank generosity, mortgages in arrears are still expected to rise to record highs. However, without the policies implemented, […]
How does an irrational market respond to deteriorating fundamentals? We sifted through dozens of pages of Canadian real estate price forecasts to find out. All forecasts recognized this is the largest employment shock the country has ever seen. However, the impact on real estate prices ranged from “it’s bullish”, to “how do prices rise when […]
Another global risk agency is warning wealthy investors that Canadian real estate prices will drop. DBRS, the ratings division of Morningstar, released its forecast for mortgage and price performance in Canada. The firm warns investors to expect climbing arrears, and double digit real estate price drops across Canada. Forecasting Scenarios Institutional research provides a range […]
Canadian households are asking banks if they can skip a few payments, and banks are (mostly) saying yes. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) data shows hundreds of thousands of payments are being deferred. The number, as big as it is, represents select member banks – meaning there’s many more deferrals. Even just using this data, it […]
One of the world’s largest risk advisory firms says Canadian real estate won’t be spared. Moody’s Analytics released their Canadian Q2 forecast, showing how COVID-19 will impact the Canadian economy. The firm advised their institutional clients that real estate will be impacted, with even an optimistic scenario showing price declines. Risk Assumptions and Baselines First, […]
