Canadian inflation is officially “too high,” putting the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) credibility into jeopardy for the second time in five years. April inflation data breached the central bank’s upper tolerance band—just weeks after it dismissed accelerating price growth and cut rates, effectively adding inflationary stimulus. BMO had a blunt warning to investors this week: […]
The latest survey from Canada’s state-owned mortgage insurer reveals that the kids are not alright. CMHC data shows first-time purchasers increasingly depend on non-traditional funding such as non-mortgage debt, gifted down payments, and co-ownership with non-occupying residents. First-time buyers are showing more signs of being overextended despite increased leverage. Young adults are finding themselves in […]
Canadian households hoping for cheaper mortgages just got bad news. Hotter-than-expected inflation data has sent Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields soaring, wiping out any progress made in 2025. The move means higher fixed-rate mortgages are on the way, and they’ll climb further if yields continue to rise. Government Borrowing & Your Mortgage Rate Credit […]
Canadian inflation slowed last month, though most people are unlikely to have noticed much savings (if any). Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed in April. It was a result of last month’s removal of the consumer carbon tax, leading to an abrupt but temporary decline. However, a look […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Household Debt Grew 2x Faster Than 2019, Driven By Mortgages Canadian households may have trade jitters, but that isn’t stopping them from borrowing. Household debt climbed 0.2% (+$6.2 billion) to reach $3.04 trillion in February—double 2019’s growth rate. Mortgage credit drove […]
Canada’s central bank has been slashing rates to get households to borrow, and mission accomplished. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows household debt climbed aggressively in February. Growth may seem slow relative to the recent low rate frenzy, but debt is being racked up at twice the rate seen in 2019. Despite weak home sales, […]
Weak demand for Canadian real estate continues to push prices lower. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the price of a composite benchmark (typical) home made a sharp downtick in April. The medium-term trend also reveals this is a more complicated issue than just trade war jitters. Over the past few years, buyers have […]
Canadian real estate sales may be slow, but the few people buying are paying more. Brookfield’s Real Property Solutions (RPS) released its House Price Index (HPI) for April, showing annual growth continuing to decelerate. However, the 12-month change fails to capture a potential shift in sentiment—last month prices made the biggest jump in 9-months. The […]
The Canadian and US labor markets tend to make very similar moves, and rarely diverge. This is one of those rare divergences, according to a new analysis from BMO Capital Markets. The bank’s chief economist is warning that Canadian employment is showing the worst divergence in nearly 25 years. It’s rare to see this kind […]
Canada’s central bank is just realizing the mortgage rate renewal cliff is much smaller than thought. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Financial Stability Report (FSR) shows the average mortgage payment will rise much less than anticipated on renewal. Economists from BMO Capital Markets told investors the improvements are mostly already reflected in the market. Those […]
