Immigration To Canada’s Largest Real Estate Markets Is Down Over 60%

Canada’s largest real estate markets have seen a dramatic slowdown since the onset of the pandemic. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shows the number of permanent residents made a sharp decline in May. While Toronto and Vancouver can attribute this trend to the pandemic, it’s been a more long-term issue for Montreal.

Toronto Immigration Drops Over 69%

The number of permanent residents admitted to settle in Greater Toronto is down for a third month now. There 3,630 permanent residents admitted in May, down 69.6% from a year before. This is an improvement from the 84.2% drop experienced in April, but is still less than half the admissions we saw last year. The decline can almost exclusively be attributed to the pandemic, having started in March of this year.

New Canadian Permanent Residents By Market

The monthly number of permanent residents admitted to Canada, by intended market to reside.

Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Immigration Drops Over 63%

Permanent residents to the Greater Vancouver region are still dropping, for a third consecutive month. There were 1,430 permanent residents admitted in May, down 63.8% from last year. This is an improvement from the 91.1% decline the month before, but is also still down by more than half. Vancouver’s decline also lines up with the pandemic, having started in March.

New Canadian Permanent Residents By Market Change

The percent change of permanent residents admitted to Canada per month, by intended market to reside.

Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Immigration Drops Over 63%

Permanent residents to Greater Montreal made a sharp drop, but this has been a much more long-term trend. There were 1,215 permanent residents admitted in May, down 63.2% from a year before. An improvement over the 93.9% a month before, but year over declines for the region have been relatively consistent since 2016.

The decline in migration is likely temporary, especially in cities like Toronto and Vancouver that line up with the pandemic declaration. That said, immigraiton typically lines up with the business cycle, rising during global peaks and falling during global downturns. Considering forecasts are expecting the global economy to be in a recessionary environment until at least next year, this could put a damper on a quick recovery.

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  • Vince 4 years ago

    Immigrants will just come later and form a larger group from pent up demand. Not an issue, but it means prices will skyrocket soon.

    • Jason Chau 4 years ago

      If immigration recovers before unemployment, you can expect the next government to have an extremely anti-immigration stance. That’s always how economic downturns go.

    • Tom Wolfe 4 years ago

      I’m no emigration lawyer specializing in the human rights of the Chinese population, nor am I an expert on moving vast sums of capital out of China to it’s best friend Canada, but I think that’s a long shot.

    • Jupiter 4 years ago

      No, there will be no high skill immigrants if there are no jobs. If the bad immigrants start coming house prices will only go down. Kinda like when a bunch of horrible degenerates start moving into a good neighborhood.

  • Mitch 4 years ago

    The rentals are piling up, and it’s becoming really obvious. A friend that’s visiting from China said they’re going to try and do school by remote.

    • Gabriele Di Bernardo 4 years ago

      Couldn’t agree more with your comment about rentals piling up. Units that went for 2500 before the shut down (February 2020) are now being offered for 1900.

  • Old Nick 4 years ago

    If Universities go digital for the next year or two, you can kiss the high rental prices goodbye. Vacancy rates in my opinion are going to Sky-Rocket!

  • Scott M 4 years ago

    With few flights and many borders closed its not surprise…

  • zalzon 4 years ago

    Textbook definition of a pyramid scheme.

  • Mark 4 years ago

    Zalzon, you are spot on. I call it the biggest Ponzi scheme. But this is legal because it has been created by the elitists who ” lobby” (a nice way word to mean corruption in government) .

    The stats are not accurate because most rich immigrants who buy there way to obtain a PR and come to Canada under the Quebec investment visa. They land in Montreal and they catch a flight to either Toronto or Vancouver. I know quite a few folks who did that, so this is fact not conjecture.

    Immigration will continue no matter which government gets in power. They will not change the status quo. UNLESS the local population makes it’s voices loud and clear for the politicians to hear our concerns and struggles of the pain we face to keep a roof over our heads and raise a family, while the house prices and taxes keep going up.

    Unless, the government is able to build new housing, hospitals, schools and create new high paying jobs for every new immigrant arriving in the country. Things will only get worse as the recession bites hard.

    This time they shut down the entire economy, so don’t expect the business cycle to pick up in a year’s time. It could take several years!

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