Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Real Estate Prices To Fall Even Further: Oxford Economics
The Canadian housing crash is already the largest on record, and it may not be over. Oxford Economics is forecasting prices and sales falling further through early 2027. Higher rates, elevated energy prices, and weak job growth threaten a recovery. The housing market is seen improving next year, though the firm warns the risk is still to the downside.
Canadian Mortgage Growth Slumps As Rate Hikes Threaten More Pressure
Canadian mortgage credit is slowly growing, and BMO warns it can slow further. Mortgage debt grew 0.3% in August, the second-slowest growth for the month on record. Annual growth was also the weakest since the early 2000s, excluding the recent correction. With roughly 30% of originations in Q2 2026 opting for variable rates, BMO cautions the Bank of Canada (BoC). Hiking too fast can hit a growing share of borrowers and throttle mortgage demand.
Canadian Real Estate Needs More Immigration, Foreign Buyers: National Bank
A whole generation of young adults want to buy a home but can’t afford it. They were pitched on the idea that more supply can fix that, but it turns out that’s not the case. Over 28% of completed new homes remain unsold, the highest level since the 90s. Unfortunately, prices are still out of reach for buyers, and National Bank says the show must go on. They’re urging policymakers to increase immigration and permit foreign buyers to boost demand.
Canada’s Borrowing 2.2x Deficit, Payments To Hit 1 in 7 Dollars of Revenue: PBO
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) warns the country’s debt demand is rising. Canada’s 5-year deficit is projected to hit $333 billion, but it needs $733 billion new borrowing—2.2x the deficit. It’s the result of a “growing stock of debt,” not rising interest rates, according to the PBO. Debt servicing is now the fastest-growing federal expense, with payments soon to consume 1 in 7 dollars of revenue.
Canadian Inflation Accelerates, Only 2 Provinces Below National CPI
Energy and shelter costs are helping to drive the Consumer Price Index (CPI) higher. Annual growth of CPI accelerated to 3.1% in September, surpassing the 3.0% upper bound used by the BoC. The headline is high, but just two provinces are lower than the national average. The rest are facing much higher CPI levels, especially in Atlantic Canada.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto New Home Sales Rise, But Remain Weak As Price Declines Accelerate
Toronto’s new home sales climb but remain weak. September’s new home sales came in 63.9% higher than last year, but they remain 52% below the 10-year average. Most of those sales were single-family homes, where prices plunged 12.7% (-$180.8k) over the past four months. Condos haven’t fallen as much, but sales were the lowest for September on record. Even with taxpayers providing billions in incentives, the market is still struggling.
Halifax Real Estate
Halifax Real Estate Prices Just Made The Second-Biggest Drop On Record
The Halifax-Dartmouth real estate market may have finally run out of luck. The price of a typical home in the region plunged 3.9% (-$22.1k) in September, marking the second-biggest monthly drop on record. Sales came in 4% hgiher than last year, but they remain well below pre-pandemic volumes. The region has so far avoided the turmoil seen in Toronto and Vancouver, but last month’s sharp drop shows the region isn’t in the clear.
