Canada

Canadian Immigration Slows Further, As New Permanent Residents Drop Over 44%

One of the driving forces behind Canadian real estate prices is on hold – immigration. Government of Canada (GoC) data shows the number of newly admitted permanent residents to Canada is still making sharp declines in June. The decline was mostly consistent around the country, except in BC and Quebec. The former is seeing a smaller than average decline, and the latter a larger than average.

Permanent Residents To Canada Down Over 44%

The number of new permanent residents arriving in Canada is on the decline. There were just 19,175 people admitted in June, down 44.2% from the same month last year. Year-to-date (YTD), this is now just 103,420 admitted people, down 35.5% from last year. The annual decline is softened by large growth in the first two months of this year. Even with that increase, we’re still seeing a lag in growth.

Canadian Permanent Resident Change – June

The percent change in permanent residents admitted to Canada for the month of June, compared to last year.

Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.

New Permanent Residents To Ontario Drops Over 41%

Ontario is where almost half of the total permanent residents admitted moved. The province represents 9,145 permanent residents admitted in June, down 41.8% from last year. Year-to-date (YTD) there were 48,455 people admitted, down 35.1% compared to last year. For the province, this would be the lowest rate of admittance in at least half a decade, but likely much longer. A larger monthly decline than YTD implies declines are getting larger.

New Permanent Residents To BC Drops Over 20%

British Columbia (B.C.) is the second largest province for permanent resident arrivals. The province saw 3,990 permanent residents admitted in June, down 20.7% from the same month last year. Year-to-date there were 17,205 people admitted, down 23.64% from the same period last year. B.C. is actually the province seeing the smallest declines of any province in Canada. The smaller monthly decline than YTD implies the declines are improving.

New Permanent Residents To Quebec Drops Over 64%

Quebec has been seeing a steady slide in the number of permanent residents admitted for a few years now. The province only saw 1,365 permanent residents admitted in June, down 64.7% from last year. Year-to-date (YTD) there were 10,950 people, down 39.9% compared to the same period last year. This one isn’t entirely due to the pandemic though, since permanent residents arriving in Quebec peaked in 2017 for the month of June.

The decline in permanent residents is almost entirely due to the pandemic. We’re likely to see these numbers rise as global restrictions ease into next year. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of people expected to create housing demand aren’t coming, or won’t be coming for a while.

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10 Comments

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  • JT 2 months ago

    Prices are rising because of high employment growth!

    I meant, prices are rising because of rapid population growth!

    I meant, prices are rising because of no logical reason.

    • Ahmed 2 months ago

      Prices are rising mostly to the sales mix. People are living to the suburbs because they’re interested in more space since they can WFH.

      Downtown prices are slowing in growth, and even dipping in sales in some region. Fraser Valley prices are moving higher for a reason, while city condos are just tiny torture chambers.

  • Jason Chau 2 months ago

    Global recession is typically tied to lower levels of immigration. Well studied phenomenon.

    If you’re moving to a country in a recessionary environment, you’re also likely to find it more difficult than locals to find a job, and more likely to return home.

    https://inequality.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/Immigration_fact_sheet.pdf

    • Laurel 2 months ago

      Conversely, they continue immigration and a more non-immigrant political party is elected. Case in point, the UK.

      Boris Johnson didn’t make a direct change, but switched more to a point based system. The point based system means only wealthy or high skill immigrants can move there.

      Which brings up a whole new issue when you import wealthy high skilled people. Which is once again America’s issue, and why locals are even more hostile to immigration trends.

  • Ahmed 2 months ago

    What happens to immigration if Biden wins, and America is no longer anti-China?

    That’s something more people need to ask. Prior to 2016, Canada was a second choice for the rich.

    • zalzon 2 months ago

      US vs China is going to be the central theme of the first half of the 21st century.
      The latter is trying to displace the former as the world’s foremost economic and military power.

      Which side wins this contest will decide who controls the majority of wealth & power in the world – and in turn your living standards.

      China wants Trump gone, no doubt.

      “Chyna, Chyna, Chyna”

  • alvi 2 months ago

    They both need each other, the bluster is just for domestic puposes

  • straw walker 2 months ago

    Finally some good news

  • Fight Back 2 months ago

    There is no increase in demand, no limit of supply. Infact we are over supplied in housing right now. What other excuses are they going to come up with next to prop up this bubble.

    This is a crime against young people.

    • SH 2 months ago

      Highest immigration rate pre-Covid in the Western world (except perhaps Australia and NZ), 3x the rate of the US, and you think that demand increase isn’t significant?

      The Trudeau government has worked hard to suppress the wages of young Canadians AND inflate housing prices. But the young overwhelmingly vote Liberal. Why are they voting against their own interests?

      The Boomer generation has a lot to answer for but the current situation in Canada is mostly on Millennial voters.

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