Canadian households just demonstrated debt is more complicated than bank economists think. Statistics Canada numbers, adjusted by former Maclean’s business editor Jason Kirby, show Canada’s debt to income ratio made a huge jump in Q3 2018. Canadian debt to income levels are now back above the US pre-Great Recession peak. That level, which is notoriously […]
Break out the champagne for the next open house, because it’s all clear sailing from here. That’s according to the CEO of one of Canada’s largest real estate developers, who declared Canadian real estate achieved a soft landing. The situation is not unlike the US being declared a soft landing in 2006, but just like […]
Canadian mortgage credit growth is falling, but how bad is it in real terms? People are comparing today’s low growth numbers to the mid-1990s. While there are some parallels, it more accurately resembles the early 1980s. Mortgage credit growth, when adjusted for inflation, is heading towards negative numbers. We haven’t actually experienced negative real growth […]
After years of doing mostly nothing, Canadian regulators are springing into action. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), after successfully rolling out B-20 Guidelines, are turning their focus to equity lending. Mortgages issued this way allow lenders to gloss over income, and rely mostly on equity in the home. 1 in 5 […]
There’s a lot of factors that impact real estate prices, but they all ultimately depend on liquidity. Liquidity is just a way of saying there needs to be people that want to buy your home, and have enough money to buy it. The money used to come from income and savings, but in the late […]
The Toronto real estate sold data drama continues, after less than a month of being published. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) notified members that there have been reports of false sold data being submitted to the MLS. Agents looking to “protect” consumer privacy have submitted false sold information, to obfuscate how much was really paid […]
No, we won’t call Toronto real estate a bubble today. Usually we shy away from using the B-word entirely. Canadians tend to look at you like you’ve insulted their mother when you say it. Instead we’re going to discuss the phases of a real estate bubble, and let you make a decision for yourself. Understanding […]
A few weeks ago, Bay Street’s top strategist invited me to breakfast, to talk kittens and rainbows. Kidding, we obviously talked about Canadian real estate. Most of the conversation was just a rehash of data we post here, but he did say something that stuck with me. Towards the end of breakfast he goes, “an […]
Canadian real estate owners with a mortgage are doing “very good” with their payments. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), using Equifax data, is observing credit score improvements across the country. The average credit score of Canadian mortgage holders is improving. This may come as a surprise to some, but it doesn’t mean what […]
Peak Canadian real estate investment is behind us, according to another indicator. Statistics Canada (StatCan) numbers show residential investment as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is moving lower. Taking a dive through unadjusted data, we can see this trend is primed to head much lower soon. What Is Residential Investment? Residential investment is […]
