The Canadian government isn’t exactly planning for a v-shaped employment recovery. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO), who gives non-partisan financial forecasts to parliament, updated their forecasts. While the focus of the forecast is how the federal government’s finances will look, there’s some interesting assumptions that are important from a macro perspective. The government is planning […]
An already slowing global economy is seeing more downward revisions to forecasts, due to the pandemic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the latest organization to lower Canada’s 2020 GDP forecast. The organization sees the economy making the biggest contraction seen in generations. On the upside, they see a return to growth next year. Next […]
Canadians knew they were in for a whopper of an employment report, but most didn’t expect these numbers. The Statistics Canada (Stat Can) Labour Force Survey shows a historic drop of employment in March. Job losses for the country came in at roughly double what analysts were expecting. Digging deeper into the data, we also […]
Toronto’s busy streets are suddenly deserted due to the pandemic, and criminals are taking advantage. Anecdotally, officers say they’ve been busier with break and enters this year. A quick dive into Toronto Police Services (TPS) data supports the gut feeling, with Q1 showing a bump in break and enter reports. The rise in crime is […]
Canada’s central bank is flooding the credit market, and hoping nothing sinks. The Bank of Canada (BoC) made an unscheduled rate decision today, dropping the policy rate to just 0.25%. The decision is the third cut just this month, and marks a return to the lowest policy rate Canada has ever seen. Policy Interest Rate […]
Canada’s economy was sputtering before COVID-19, but last week’s job losses are unprecedented. The Federal government now estimates 960,000 jobless claims were made just last week. The number of claims for the week is higher than any monthly tally in Canadian history. The weekly bump is around 5% of the workforce making the unemployment rate […]
Are falling interest rates going to push Canadian real estate prices even higher? That’s not exactly what’s happening right now. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has been rapidly lowering the overnight target for interest rates in response to COVID-19 economic slowdowns. Concerns about this overheating the market are starting to bubble up (no pun intended). […]
Canadian restaurants were already getting crushed by soaring real estate prices, and now they’re facing pandemic fallout. Data from Open Table shows the big drop off in traffic for restaurants in Canada’s largest cities. Cities like Toronto were already facing weak traffic growth. However, this was capitulated after COVID-19 cases began to rise. Montreal had […]
Canadian bank regulators are jumping into action to contain economic risk. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) made emergency changes last week in response to COVID-19. These changes include dropping the update to the mortgage stress test, lowering domestic stability buffers, and asking banks to halt share buybacks and dividend hikes. Mortgage […]
Cracks in the Canadian economy are appearing, and it started last year. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows gross domestic product (GDP) per capita fell in Q4 2019. The decline is the second consecutive quarterly drop, and is now back to where it was two years ago. GDP Per Capita Gross domestic product (GDP) and […]
