The recession indicator “that has a perfect record” in the US is now flashing red alert in Canada. Canada’s 10-2 treasury yield spread officially inverted in July. The spread has been flattening since 2017, but finally turned negative last month. The yield curve inversion indicates investor expectations for the future are spiraling lower. We know, […]
The Canadian real estate slowdown is putting a drag on GDP numbers. Statistics Canada (StatCan) numbers show residential investment fell for a fifth consecutive quarter in Q1 2019. Historically, a decline in residential investment in countries with high levels of ownership are a recession flag. Residential Investment and Why You Care Residential investment (a.k.a. residential […]
Canadian bank regulators are getting ready for you to hit your breaking point. Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced it is raising the domestic stability buffers. The increase goes into effect this fall, just a few months after being hiked this past spring. An increase in the buffer provides further protection to […]
A lot of gems in last week’s BC money laundering report, but the biggest one wasn’t about the province. The report’s numbers suggest one of Canada’s fastest growing industries is washing money. In an advanced economy with low but stable gross domestic product (GDP) growth, this is a big issue. The numbers show laundering cash […]
Canadian real estate is a giant washing machine, confirms the British Columbia government. The province’s Attorney General office released a new report yesterday. The report estimates the amount of laundered cash in the real estate market to be in the billions last year. Considering last year was slower than usual, it represents a good chunk […]
Money laundering in Canadian real estate is a widely accepted fact of life these days, but the impact isn’t. Government and academics are still debating how much money is needed to distort a market. The truth is, not a whole lot is required to distort any asset market. This is a problem the stock market […]
Looking to launder some cash? You might want to head over to Toronto, and use the real estate. A new Transparency International Canada (TI Canada) report studies the corporate ownership of Greater Toronto residential real estate. The organization took a dive through over 50,000 corporate purchases made from 2008 to 2018. Turns out at least […]
The Government of Canada is using taxpayer money to invest in real estate at near peak valuations. The Department of Finance revealed the 2019 Budget yesterday, including new housing measures. Most notable is the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, which allows the CMHC, Canada’s national housing agency, to become an investor in your real estate. On […]
Toronto and Vancouver real estate is seeing default rates climb from recent lows. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) numbers show the ratio of delinquencies is climbing in both cities as of Q3 2018. The increase is most notable for the largest mortgages, a potential sign that reduced liquidity is making an impact. Mortgage Delinquencies […]
The Government of Canada is mulling over how to increase household debt. Seriously. The Ministry of Finance is considering extending the maximum amortization for insured mortgages. The move would lower payments relative to 25 year amortizations, in exchange for paying more interest. The move helps in the short-term, but can cost households a lot more. […]
