One of the world’s largest risk advisory firms says Canadian real estate won’t be spared. Moody’s Analytics released their Canadian Q2 forecast, showing how COVID-19 will impact the Canadian economy. The firm advised their institutional clients that real estate will be impacted, with even an optimistic scenario showing price declines. Risk Assumptions and Baselines First, […]
Canada’s largest real estate markets should prepare for a very different economy over the next few years. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows unemployment in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal made big climbs in March. As bad as the loss is, it’s muted by a rapid decline in the participation rate. This means the loss of […]
Canadians got temporary price relief, but it could be a sign of more serious issues brewing. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) reported one of the largest declines in the history of the consumer price index (CPI) for March. The decline puts the index’ growth to one of the lowest levels in years. While low to no […]
The Canadian government isn’t exactly planning for a v-shaped employment recovery. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO), who gives non-partisan financial forecasts to parliament, updated their forecasts. While the focus of the forecast is how the federal government’s finances will look, there’s some interesting assumptions that are important from a macro perspective. The government is planning […]
An already slowing global economy is seeing more downward revisions to forecasts, due to the pandemic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the latest organization to lower Canada’s 2020 GDP forecast. The organization sees the economy making the biggest contraction seen in generations. On the upside, they see a return to growth next year. Next […]
Canadians knew they were in for a whopper of an employment report, but most didn’t expect these numbers. The Statistics Canada (Stat Can) Labour Force Survey shows a historic drop of employment in March. Job losses for the country came in at roughly double what analysts were expecting. Digging deeper into the data, we also […]
Toronto’s busy streets are suddenly deserted due to the pandemic, and criminals are taking advantage. Anecdotally, officers say they’ve been busier with break and enters this year. A quick dive into Toronto Police Services (TPS) data supports the gut feeling, with Q1 showing a bump in break and enter reports. The rise in crime is […]
Canada’s central bank is flooding the credit market, and hoping nothing sinks. The Bank of Canada (BoC) made an unscheduled rate decision today, dropping the policy rate to just 0.25%. The decision is the third cut just this month, and marks a return to the lowest policy rate Canada has ever seen. Policy Interest Rate […]
Canada’s economy was sputtering before COVID-19, but last week’s job losses are unprecedented. The Federal government now estimates 960,000 jobless claims were made just last week. The number of claims for the week is higher than any monthly tally in Canadian history. The weekly bump is around 5% of the workforce making the unemployment rate […]
Are falling interest rates going to push Canadian real estate prices even higher? That’s not exactly what’s happening right now. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has been rapidly lowering the overnight target for interest rates in response to COVID-19 economic slowdowns. Concerns about this overheating the market are starting to bubble up (no pun intended). […]
