Canada

Canadian Mortgage Quality Has “Deteriorated”: Bank of Canada

Canada used to be known for its conservative mortgage lending, but that’s no longer the case. The Bank of Canada (BoC) warned mortgage quality has “deteriorated” in 2020. The central bank found highly indebted households, those with a loan-to-income ratio higher than 450%, now represent a record share of new mortgage debt.

Highly indebted households used to be a small share of mortgage debt. The share surged in 2016/2017, during Toronto and Vancouver’s mini-bubble. Mortgage stress tests were rolled out to lower the share, and it appeared to work. For a while. Now they’re back with a vengeance, with over 1 in 5 new mortgages going to highly indebted households.

Highly Indebted Borrowers Now Behind 22% of  New Mortgage Debt In Canada

The share of newly issued mortgage debt going to highly indebted borrowers surged. These borrowers represent 21.7% of mortgages issued in Q4 2020, a new record high. It dwarfs the previous record set back in Q4 2016 when Toronto and Vancouver had a mini-bubble.

After the stress test, the share dropped to 12.3% of borrowers in Q2 2018. It did start to take off a few quarters before the pandemic. That explains why the pandemic stimulus was so effective in stimulating demand. It was already surging, and they gave borrowers cheaper mortgage debt anyway.

No, you’re not having deja vu. We discussed similar data (down to the same quarter), a few months ago. That was when the industry was examining the issue brewing, and now the BoC is discussing it with the public. They also gave the number of highly indebted insured mortgage borrowers though. So that’s a new data point.

Canadian Mortgage Originations To Highly Indebted Households

The share of mortgage originations to households with a loan to income ratio higher than 450 per cent.

Source: Bank of Canada; Better Dwelling.

Highly Indebted Borrowers Represent 23% of Newly Issued Uninsured Mortgages

Breaking the trend down, most of the deterioration is occurring with uninsured mortgages. Highly indebted borrowers represented 22.6% of newly issued mortgage debt in Q4 2020. This is a new record, crushing the previous high — when the share reached 19.8% in Q3 2017.

Post-stress test the share of these borrowers finds the bottom at 13.4% of new mortgages. Worth pointing out that even after the stress test, the share never falls back to 2014 levels. The new normal for risk?

Highly Indebted Borrowers Represent 17% of Newly Issued Insured Mortgage Debt

Insured mortgages going to highly indebted borrowers are climbing. These borrowers represent 16.6% of newly issued insured mortgage debt in Q4 2020. It’s an elevated level, but still under the 20.8% share seen in the Q3 2016 high. Almost triple the post-stress test low of 5.6% in Q2 2019 though.

The drop (and now surge) of highly indebted mortgage borrowers shows it isn’t just the stress test. It’s an issue of sentiment, and the stress test had a big psychological impact, not a technical one. Back in 2017/2018, Toronto and Vancouver detached homes prices took a nosedive. Fewer people want a big loan if they think there’s a chance of losing money. They can see the risk. 

When the pandemic struck, the government didn’t just save the real estate market — they sent it soaring. Homeowners didn’t need to pay their mortgage, interest rates were cut, and QE used to make mortgages even cheaper. The government even outright said it would be unacceptable for home prices to fall. Why would the average person think otherwise? 

The moral hazard created now makes it difficult to find a Canadian that thinks home prices can fall. That set off a wave of buyers that no longer see a risk of overpaying, since “prices don’t go down.” They don’t see the risk of overextending themselves, because they think it will always pay off. The only risk they can see is paying more later. After all, the government will try to stop any decline in home prices. Whether they can do so is a totally different story.

Like this post? Like us on Facebook for the next one in your feed.

13 Comments

COMMENT POLICY:
We encourage you to have a civil discussion. Note that reads "civil," which means don't act like jerks to each other. Still unclear? No name-calling, racism, or hate speech. Seriously, you're adults – act like it.

Any comments that violates these simple rules, will be removed promptly – along with your full comment history. Oh yeah, you'll also lose further commenting privileges. So if your comments disappear, it's not because the illuminati is screening you because they hate the truth, it's because you violated our simple rules.

  • Trader Jim 2 months ago

    and that would be why they stopped buying mortgage bonds, and began tapering QE right when they would have known about the data, and when it became public, respectively.

    Just because it sounds like they have no clue what they’re doing, doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing. What they do just may not be in the best interests of the public.

    • Whiskey Foxtrot 2 months ago

      The public may be the stakeholder at the Bank of Canada and OSFI, but the mandate is to protect the cash flow of the banks. A country can always find more people, and new debt payers. It can’t re-establish a convertible currency people trust.

  • Kevin Logan 2 months ago

    The Bank of Canada said it like it has no role in the issue. haha.

    • Ethan Wu 2 months ago

      You say it like it’s a joke, but they basically blamed people for taking out too much cheap debt. Apparently, everyone wasn’t supposed to take out more, as they wanted.

  • Jason Chau 2 months ago

    not enough popcorn gifs when they all start blaming each other. The Bank of Canada knows this isn’t possible without their mortgage bond program which launched in 2019, and helped to stimulate mortgage growth before the pandemic?

    “it’s just regular balance sheet stuff.”

    You were injecting money into the mortgage market to push rates lower as a routine operation? haha. Good one.

  • Tom Wolfe 2 months ago

    There should be an Instagram page like drunkpeopledoingthings for all the idiots signing mortgages in Canada.

    Include all the ig profiles that have $185K income and $1M mortgage on a previously $2M dollar house; the BoC; RBC; TD; BMO; Scotia; and CIBC. Imagine them all drooling and signing documents then walking into traffic; falling on their faces; slugging it out with the girlfriends.

    It’s some funny sh*t I tell ya.

  • Ashley 2 months ago

    Mortgage quality deterioration is just collateral damage to keep economy afloat and make economy look good until the next elections. I wonder what BoC will come up with next, handover loans to buy bitcoins like investment property and rent them out 🙂

  • Canaduh 2 months ago

    That sound of a large tree branch breaking in the distance.

  • R. Willis 2 months ago

    22% of mortgages in the big 5.

    Now – what about the credit unions and shadow lenders?

  • AllinBi 2 months ago

    The sentiment is the banks are covered no matter what and the banks should have a stress test too for accountability in the making as a moral point advisor it doesn’t matter to them they don’t loose you do. Them they are insured no matter what and that is the iceberg that we will all hit economically.

  • AL 2 months ago

    IT IS TIME FOR A TAXPAYER STRIKE IN CANADA!!! I DON’T WANT ANY OF MY TAXPAYER DOLLARS TO BE USED TO BAIL OUT THE BANKS OR REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY WHEN THE CANADIAN HOUSING BUBBLE INEVITABLY BURSTS!!! DO YOU??? SOMEBODY PLEASE START A MOVEMENT/PETITION TO STOP CANADIAN POLITICIANS FROM CONTINUING THIS INSANE STUPIDITY!!!

Comments are closed.