The real estate industry is lowering expectations as dreams of a recovery fade fast. This month, both the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and the CMHC revised their 2026 forecasts for existing-home sales and prices. Last year’s optimism over a market rebound is now meeting reality, with each organization having cut its 2026 forecasts a second time.
CMHC and CREA Cut 2026 Home Sales Forecasts for a Second Time
CMHC and CREA winter, spring, and summer forecasts for existing-home sales in 2026.
Source: CMHC; CREA; Better Dwelling.
The industry has been making sharp downward revisions to existing home resales in 2026. CMHC expects 457,200 sales in 2026, 2.8% below last year’s sales volumes. More importantly, this is a big downward revision—6.5% below its previous forecast for 2026, and 9.3% below what they had forecast for 2026 this time last year. Too bad there’s no December forecast. Then it would be super easy to outperform expectations!
CREA’s latest forecast remains slightly more optimistic, with sales falling 1.4% from last year to 463,336 homes in 2026. The latest forecast is 2.4% lower than the agency’s spring forecast for 2026, and has been cut by a total of 6.3% since its forecast at the start of the year. It may be more optimistic, but its outlook has steadily eroded as it meets reality.
CMHC and CREA Cut 2026 Home Price Forecasts Again… and Again
CMHC and CREA winter, spring, and summer forecasts for existing-home prices in 2026.
Source: CREA; CMHC; Better Dwelling.
Home prices are also getting sharp downward revisions after the bounce they expected failed to materialize. CMHC sees the average resale price at $675,200 in 2026, 0.6% lower than last year. The trade association cut its forecast earlier this year by 3.4%, and by 5.9% from the 2026 forecast it made this time last year. Those previous forecasts are now more like dreams than anything grounded in reality.
CREA is also lowering its expectations, though it still sees the average price advancing 1.1% from last year to $686,710 in 2026. That’s 1.7% lower than it forecast back in April, and 3.4% below the $698,881 it forecast at the end of last year. The organization’s lowered expectations still see prices higher than last year, but would still make 2026 the second-lowest year in the past half-decade.
Sales are expected to fall, and prices are relatively stagnant. After both organizations slashed expectations multiple times, these forecasts shifted from a recovery to partial stabilization—at best. Both organizations expect sales and prices to move higher next year, but it’s probably fair to expect downward revisions there, too.
