Halifax real estate prices may have slipped last month, but the province went the other direction. Nova Scotia Association of Realtors (NSAR) data shows home prices surged in June, making the second-largest monthly jump on record. Fewer sales and more listings have pushed the province’s demand balance to its weakest June since at least 2019. However, that didn’t stop buyers from paying more—a lot more.
Nova Scotia Home Prices Just Made The 2nd Biggest Jump On Record
The price of a typical home across Nova Scotia, according to the CREA benchmark composite.
Source: NSAR; CREA; Better Dwelling.
Nova Scotia home prices just printed a new record high with a near-record climb. The price of a typical home in the province surged 5.2% (+$23k) to $463,430 in June, 6.2% (+$27k) higher than last year. To put that into context, last month’s abrupt jump accounted for 85% of the annual move. The only larger increase occurred in January 2021. Seven months after that jump, prices recorded the sharpest monthly decline in the province’s history, but that’s a discussion for another day.
Most Canadian markets entered a mini-correction after the initial rate-hike shock in 2022. Nova Scotia was no exception, but like the majority of provinces, it has since hit new highs. From the previous peak of April 2022, prices fell 16% (-$68.8k) by December 2022 before rebounding 29% (+$104.3k) from that low to last month’s record. Prices have roughly doubled from January 2020, adding 98% (+$229.9k), potentially making it Canada’s best-performing province since 2020.
Don’t blame Halifax, the region’s largest (and slightly frothy) housing market. The region’s board reported prices actually plunged 2.0% (-$11.4k) to $561,300 in June, putting annual growth in negative territory. This suggests the provincial increase was driven by markets outside of the province’s most expensive and only CMA.
Nova Scotia Home Sales Cool, Down 19% From Peak
Nova Scotia MLS existing-home sales in June.
Source: NSAR; CREA; Better Dwelling.
Home sales aren’t behind this upward pressure either. There were just 1,190 homes sold in June, down 2.5% from last year. It was the weakest June in two years, and 19.4% below the June record set in 2021. Also potentially relevant—Halifax-Dartmouth represented 48.7% of provincial sales, down from more than half in recent Junes. In other words, the provincial price increase occurred while a smaller share of sales came from its most expensive region.
Nova Scotia New Listings of Homes For Sale Hit A 4-Year High
Nova Scotia MLS new listings in June.
Source: NSAR; CREA; Better Dwelling.
A shortage of new listings wasn’t behind the price move either. There were 2,040 new listings on the MLS in June, up 5.4% from last year, setting a 4-year high for the month. Only two Junes have recorded more new listings since at least 2019. The difference this time is that demand was much stronger relative to the flow of new listings in those years.
Nova Scotia Real Estate Demand Balance Weakest Since At Least 2019
Nova Scotia sales-to-new listings ratio in June.
Source: NSAR; CREA; Better Dwelling.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) is CREA’s preferred measure of demand balance. Last month’s SNLR fell to 58.4%, 4.8 percentage points lower than last year and 27.9 points lower than the June 2021 market peak. It marks the weakest June since at least 2019, though the market remains in balanced territory. In other words, it’s another data point that deepens the mystery of the near-record price jump.
Nova Scotia’s real estate market is cooling, but sales volumes are still healthy. There’s little clarity on what produced such a sudden price increase, but near-record monthly gains rarely last when accompanied by fewer sales and more new listings.
