Canadian immigration numbers have resumed massive drops, after briefly showing improvement in June. Government of Canada (GoC) data shows permanent resident arrivals made big declines in July. The previous month had briefly seen the declines shrink in size, providing optimism to real estate markets. However, the month proved to be an anomaly, with the latest data showing much larger drops in arrivals.
Canadian Permanent Resident Arrivals Drops Over 60%
Permanent residents arriving in Canada are back to making steep declines. There were 13,645 permanent residents admitted in July, down 62.73% from the same month a year before. Year-to-date the country has seen 220,500 people admitted, down 38.25% compared to the same period last year. June showed improvements in the trend, but those rolled back in the latest numbers.
Canadian Permanent Resident Arrivals
The 12-month percent change in permanent residents admitted to Canada.Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.
Ontario Sees Permanent Resident Arrivals Decline Over 63%
Ontario is the largest province for arrivals, and represented a big part of the declines. There were 5,780 permanent residents admitted in July, down 64.62% from the same month last year. Year-to-date the province had 102,715 permanent residents admitted, down 38.01% compared to the same period last year. July’s decline is over 50% larger than June, dumping that same bucket of water on a near-term recovery.
Canadian Permanent Resident Arrivals
The percent change in permanent residents admitted to Canada for the month of July, compared to last year.Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.
BC’s Permanent Resident Declines Accelerate, More Than Tripling
British Columbia saw one of the smallest declines in the country this past June. That all rolled back in July, as declines accelerated at a rapid pace. There were 1,580 permanent residents admitted in July, down 71.94% from the same month last year. Year-to-date the province admitted 35,975 permanent residents, down 29.03% compared to the same period last year. The decline in July was over 3x the one seen in June, and the largest of any province.
Quebec’s Permanent Resident Arrival Declines Are Smaller
Quebec is one of the few provinces to see smaller declines than the month before. There were 2,485 permanent residents admitted in July, down 35.79% from the same month last year. Year-to-date just 24,385 people were admitted in the province, down 45.32% from last year. The declines in July were nearly half of what they were just a month before. However, the province is still overrepresented compared to the national year-to-date numbers.
Alberta Sees Over 62% Decline In Permanent Resident Arrivals
Alberta’s declines are also getting much larger, but are in-line with the rest of the country. There were 1,635 permanent residents admitted in July, down 62.33% from the same month last year. Year-to-date 27,215 permanent residents arrived, down 60.41% from the year before. Like most provinces, the July decline was larger than the one seen in June. Both numbers saw declines just a few points off the national declines for arrivals.
Nova Scotia Sees Over 68% Decline In Permanent Resident Arrivals
Nova Scotia is seeing the decline in permanent resident arrivals get larger. There were just 240 permanent residents that arrived in July, down 76.59% from the same month last year. Year-to-date 4,350 permanent residents arrived, down 44.37% from the same period last year. The decline for July was almost double the drop from June, and was one of the biggest drops in the country.
June’s brief improvements appear to just be noise, as July made much sharper declines. The declines are largely attributed to the pandemic, shifting plans and causing processing delays. RBC forecasts weak immigration for at least a year, possibly longer. Previously this was considered to be the primary driver behind escalating real estate prices. However, volumes have nearly dropped in half, and people are still bidding up home prices.
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