Permanent resident growth, previously a large driver of real estate demand, is still largely absent these days. Government of Canada (GoC) data shows permanent resident arrivals are still down sharply in Q3 2020. Toronto and Vancouver are seeing declines get even larger, from previously big drops. Montreal is seeing some improvements, but it’s mostly due to negative growth seen last year.
Toronto Permanent Resident Arrivals Drop Over 63%
Toronto’s permanent resident arrivals in the quarter have fallen even further. The city saw 12,775 permanent residents arrive in Q3 2020, virtually flat at 0.04% from the previous quarter. Compared to last year, this is a whopping 63.88% lower. The smidge of quarterly growth might seem encouraging, but rising arrivals are a seasonal thing. Quarterly growth was more than 115 times larger last year.
Canadian Permanent Resident Arrival By Market
The monthly number of permanent residents admitted to Canada, by intended market to reside.Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.
Vancouver Permanent Resident Arrivals Drop Over 69%
Vancouver’s permanent resident arrival declines have also become bigger. The city saw 3,870 in the quarter, down 0.21% from the previous quarter. Compared to last year, this number is 69.16% larger. The annual decline is much larger than the previous quarter, showing the inflow is worsening.
Canadian Permanent Resident Arrival By Market Change
The annual percent change of permanent residents admitted to Canada per month, by intended market to reside.Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.
Montreal Permanent Resident Arrivals Drop Over 38%
Montreal is one of the few major real estate markets to see permanent resident arrivals improve. The city saw 6,065 in the quarter, up 1.34% from the previous quarter. Compared to last year, this is a 38.64% decline. The decline is almost half the size of the previous year. This improvement is due in part to last year also having negative growth, preceding the pandemic.
The quarter showed small improvement, but remember it ended in September. At this time, things were improving across the country. Now with many countries entering the “second wave,” slow growth is likely to continue. Canada’s largest bank doesn’t forecast improvements until at least late next year, possibly longer.
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