Maybe Canada’s peak opportunity for young adults really was in the 70s and 80s? Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows the median income didn’t budge at all in 2024 after inflation. Since peaking in 2021, the median income hasn’t made much progress after inflation—except for older Canadians. While older demographics continue to see their real (inflation-adjusted) incomes hit new highs, younger ones saw their incomes peak nearly half a century ago. Seriously.
Canadian Median Incomes Stagnated
The change in income for the median Canadian in 2024, by age group, inflation-adjusted to 2024 constant dollars.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
The median worker in Canada earned $46,300 in 2024, unchanged in real terms from a year before. Hopefully those inflation numbers are right, eh? While the median worker didn’t see their income erode over this period, age made a big difference.
Canada’s younger workers actually saw a regression. Those 15 to 24-year-olds saw their income fall 1.9% in real terms in 2024, failing to meet inflation. It was an even worse year for those 25 to 34-year-olds (-2.4%), which is somewhat surprising. Not to sound like a broken record, keep in mind this excludes those who made zero. This is a data skew called statistical survivorship: Higher unemployment boosts the numbers, as lower-wage earners drop to zero and are removed from the pool.
There was no rollback for the other half. Workers aged 35 to 44 (+0.8%) beat inflation slightly, but posted less than half the gains of those 45 to 54-year-olds (+2.0%), 55 to 64-year-olds (+1.9%), and 65+ (+1.8%).
Median Canadian Income Peaked In 2021—Unless You’re Older
The percent change in the median real income of a Canadian worker since the 2021 peak, by age group, using 2024 constant dollars.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Since 2021, the median income of everyone (15+) has slipped 1.3%, failing to meet inflation. That would be a dream for young adults, considering 15 to 24-year-olds (-16.5%) and 25 to 34-year-olds (-6.9%) saw much bigger contractions. Heck, even those 35 to 44-year-olds (-2.0%) were slightly worse off since 2021.
Declines were the norm, just not for older Canadians. The biggest winners since 2021 were workers aged 45 to 54 (+4.6%), who more than tripled the gains of those 55 to 64 (+1.3%). Their only challenger was, um, those 65+ (+3.7%) who were really just being held back by their peak earning years, apparently.
If you’re sensing a long-term trend, you’re onto something. But you’re still going to be shocked.
Canadian Seniors Have Seen Incomes Grow 15x Faster Than Average
The percent change in the median real income of a Canadian worker between 1976 and 2024, by age group, using 2024 constant dollars.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Since 1976, the first year available, the median Canadian 15 years and older has seen their income rise a modest 9.2% after inflation. That works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.18% over the 48 years. Again, hopefully they hit those inflation numbers with 100% precision. It doesn’t take a lot to roll those numbers back entirely, meaning reality is worse.
Canada’s young adults may find that hard to believe. Over those 48 years, real incomes have failed to keep up for 15 to 24-year-olds (-24%), who saw their incomes peak in 1977. It was a little better for those 25 to 34-year-olds (-7%), but it probably hasn’t been the same since their incomes peaked in 1976—the first year of the data.
Considering how wide this span has been, even the positive data points seem paltry for 35 to 44-year-olds (+5%). Even 45 to 54-year-olds (+19%) only beat inflation by a fraction of a point per year on average. Those 55 to 64-year-olds (+27%) did much better, but they saw just a fifth of the growth of those 65+ (+135%). That’s right, Canada’s golden class saw their income grow 15x more than the median worker.
Now the lesson here isn’t that older Canadians have seen their incomes explode. Honestly, it should be good news. The problem is the other end of the data, where young adults are actually poorer than they were 50 years ago. This issue compounds along with the credit expansion to amplify not just a housing crisis, but a demographic crisis. Housing was cheap when first-time buyers were making more. Now the same age group is making less, and today’s buyers are forced to wait until their mid-life peak earning years just to get a start.
That graph by age group with constant 2024 dollars requires people to consider that only Gen X was alive for the entire graph (likely). Those 15-24 today were not around prior to 2000 so these are points in time. That being said the data lacks comparison to the earlier graph that has the old filling up there pockets compared to the young. The presentation of the data may not have been intended to skew a perspective but I think it may have.