Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadians Flee In Record Volumes—A Warning Seen Only Twice Before
Canadians are heading for the exit in the highest volumes on record. Emigration, the act of citizens or permanent residents leaving the country, hit 120.4k people in the 12 months ending in Q3 2025, the largest outflow in history. It represents an unusual trend in a country better known for its ability to attract immigrants than its outflow of citizens. There have been only two periods in history where this type of surge has been observed before—both in the wake of misallocated capital following real estate bubbles.
Canada’s Worker Shortage Is Now A Surplus: Job Vacancies Hit 7 Year Low
Canada went from a worker shortage to a surplus in less than 5 years. Employers only had 492.5k vacant jobs in Q3 2025, with the vacancy rate (2.8%) hitting a 7-year low. Canada now has just 28 vacant jobs for every 1,000 members of its labour force. The shift from a market dominated by workers to one run by employers is already evident with wage growth falling to a 4-year low.
Canadian Job Vacancies: Ontario Hiring Slump Drags National Rate
Hiring across Canada has pulled back in every province, but one province is disproportionately dragging down the national average. The Canadian job vacancy rate fell to 2.8% in Q3 2025, the lowest in eight years with 492.5k vacant jobs—roughly half the volume just a few years ago. Seven provinces met or exceeded the national average, but Ontario (2.5%) was a big exception. The province holds just 34.9% of the country’s vacant jobs but 44.2% of its unemployed population. While hiring has slowed across the country, Ontario’s skew makes the national picture seem worse than it is.
Canadian Population Growth Plunges To Record Low
Canada’s population did something it hasn’t done, well, ever—it shrank. Population estimates reveal a decline of 76.1k people (-0.2%) in Q3 2025, with annual growth adding just 81.5k people (+0.2%). This represents the slowest growth on record, as the country attempts to reverse its experiment with using non-permanent residents to induce economic growth.
Canada’s Inflation Problem Shifts As Shelter Slows, Grocery Rips: BMO
A Big Six bank is warning inflation problems aren’t fading; they’re simply rotating. CPI ex-gasoline came in at 2.6% in November, with cooling shelter price growth among the highlights. BMO economists warn that while shelter is finally slowing, food inflation is back with a vengeance—jumping 1.9% in November alone. Since food and shelter are non-discretionary bills, they have a disproportionate influence on inflation expectations, a problem the Bank of Canada is unlikely to be thrilled about.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Accelerate Declines Into Winter
Canadian home prices fell 0.9% in November to $664,900, marking the largest monthly drop in four months. The acceleration of declines comes after prices have fallen 21% from the peak, with sales coming in 10% lower than last year. Winter months are volatile, so the importance of these data points over the short-term is debatable. However, the real concern is elevated inventory that continues to build into the winter, setting the stage for supply in the spring.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto New Home Sales Hit A New Low, Prices Down 24% From Peak
Greater Toronto new home sales continue to grind lower. Developers sold just 510 new homes in November, down 32% from last year and 90% lower than just four years prior. Prices fell sharply as the month’s second-highest inventory on record collided with its weakest sales.
The problem here isno oneever knows when the bottom for prices has hit. The claim, clearly because rbc is a bank, that prices are going to stabalize, is wishful thinking.
As noted, prices remain much higher than 10ys ago. The massive systemic injection of dumb policies and regulation are still a major factor. If investors are squeezed, as they were in the 90s, we are still on tge way down, not stabalizing.
Having livef through that correctiob, we have a lot more troubke to come.