Canada’s first population decline is being blamed on temporary residents leaving, but that overlooks a deeper structural issue: a record outflow of citizens too. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows emigration, the act of citizens or permanent residents relocating abroad, surged in Q3 2025. The unusual record outflow over the past year has only seen anything like this twice in history. All three of these periods reveal the same issue—the misallocated capital that occurs during a real estate bubble.
Canadian Emigration: Why Outflows of Locals Is Really Bad News
Canadian emigration is when citizens or permanent residents leave for another country. People come and go—it happens. It turns into a problem if these outflows are elevated and persistent. Policymakers tend to shrug it off by focusing on net flows: losing one Canadian isn’t a problem if we can manufacture two new ones. However, this is a huge mistake.
Persistent emigration isn’t distributed randomly—it’s a sign a country is losing its edge. The people leaving tend to be prime-aged workers in highly coveted fields, the group Canada can least afford to lose. On paper, immigration may seem like a fix. In reality, the same conditions pushing talent out will eventually push those immigrants out as well.
Canadians Continue To Leave In Record Volumes
Canadian Emigration: Citizens and Permanent Residents Relocating Outside of Canada, Rolling 12-Month Sum.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Canada’s unusual emigration surge continued into the latest population estimates. The country recorded 41,203 emigrants in Q3 2025, up 0.9% from last year. Growth is stable, but stable at an elevated level that’s roughly 30% above pre-pandemic norms. Canada has only seen Q3 higher once, in 2017. Put a pin in that, we’ll circle back after annual data.
Canadians fleeing for greener pastures have climbed sharply in recent years. There have been 120,401 emigrants over the 12 months ending in Q3 2025, up 2.3% from last year. It’s now at the largest outflow on record, and not just for Q3, but for any 12 month period in Canadian history.
Emigration Has Only Been Close To This Level Twice Before
Canada rarely sees large outflows, as it’s better known for attracting immigrants, not losing citizens. Today’s surge only has two comparable periods on record: peaks in 1968 and 2017. Dig into newspaper archives from those years and the similarities to today are striking.
The 1968 peak is attributed to professionals fleeing to the US. That was the year that Canadians lost priority access to US jobs, as new immigration rules kicked in. It’s a period of “brain drain,” but the framing tends to present it as an issue of greed, with our talent looking for money. It was more about our greed, and the misallocation of resources that resulted from—drumroll—a real estate bubble.
In the 1960s, young professionals faced a clear choice: move to the US and join a technology and engineering boom or stay behind and stick it out with a housing bubble. We’ve previously highlighted that newspaper archives show a speculative land bubble in the 1960s. In fact, by 1967 there were calls for a vacant land tax to help curb the urban land hoarding. It’s not a coincidence that Ontario and Quebec accounted for most of that emigration.
Canada Loses Young Professionals During Real Estate Bubbles
Canadian Emigration: Citizens and Permanent Residents Relocating Outside of Canada, Rolling 12-Month Sum for BC, Ontario, and Quebec.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
The 2017 surge follows a similar path, coinciding with a regional real estate bubble. Roughly 80% of emigration at the Q2 2017 peak were from just three provinces—BC, Ontario, and Quebec. All three had just seen a sharp collapse in affordability, and this is right around when two of those provinces implemented non-resident speculation taxes to cool the speculative mindset. We call the outcome “brain drain,” but it wasn’t competition that pushed talent out—it was a housing bubble and the massive misallocation that follows.
The pattern is repeating today. Brain drain makes it sound like we’re losing a race, but Canada isn’t. It’s choosing to funnel resources to support short-term speculative values, and then asking professionals to accept falling a decade or two behind their global peers. These professionals aren’t fleeing, but choosing not to be exploited.
The point about people leaving with the most options goes hard, and is really the key that people don’t understand.
I graduated from medical school in the 80s in Ontario, and was around for the Brain Drain frenzy in the 90s, which apparently wasn’t as bad as today despite the way the media presented it back then.
I do fine and it was probably a cake walk compared to having to graduate today, but a lot of my peers left because the options were presented as “they’re not making anymore houses so pay a buttload for your condo and shut up,” or move.
That’s not an option, it’s a hostage negotiation. People think the problem resolved but this was literally the setup for how Ontario’s healthcare system went from the envy of the world to one where no one can even find a doctor.
I see it with residents today too, and they have a really hard time debating if they just spent the first three decades of their life to be saddled with debt for the next two decades while they rent a condo from someone that didn’t graduate from high school but was lucky enough to be born 30 years before.
C’est la vie. The French were here first, hence Quebec.
How did the English being in Delaware first work out? My history textbook is out of reach.
The Quebec example is more apt than you know. Treat the future with dignity, and they’ll consider it a meeting of equals. Treat them with hostility and predatory dominion, and things are great until they aren’t.
That guy who didn’t graduate and was lucky enough to be born 30 years ago probably brought his own lunch and coffee to work every day, rarely ate out, had no cell phone, no Spotify subscription and travelled to Florida by car, twice. While it’s true housing affordability isn’t the same, spending and savings habits aren’t the same either. I recall an older orthodontist telling me that in his day, “You didn’t really start making money until your 50s, because you were paying off your mortgage and everything else before then. Now everyone wants everything immediately, and they’re buying practices, big houses, and complaining. They want at age 30, what someone else has at age 45 or 50…” Many immigrant professionals have told me that there is more money to make outside of Canada, but Canada is a better place for their families. While I agree that we need to allow the working population to thrive here, we need to get the balance right, or we’ll end up like some other place.
This blog likes to challenge the government but when you challenge their slant on data they simply take your comment down. Kind of the the thugs running the US government right now…!
Nah, but I would be happy to explain. We use Automattic’s comment detection system which flagged your comment as spam for manual review.
I don’t know why they flag specific comments, but if I had to guess: this isn’t your first time leaving multiple comments with different names under the same residential IP address within a short-period? Since most high-traffic news sites share the same system, your IP is likely flagged.
Even “free speech” platforms like X and Reddit flag this kind of behavior, as a typical person doesn’t typically feel inspired to spend two hours commenting with different names under the same IP address. It’s a little odd. That said, we’re faster with comment approvals during business hours!
I hope this was helpful and Happy Holidays!
Calling Reddit a free speech platform is comical. I was banned from my local reddit sub for saying I don’t support abortion rights.
Reddit’s kind of a tiny dictatorship of communities, but the free speech position is on the side of the company.
Like X will let you say anything you want, but that doesn’t mean people can’t block you.
I had to leave Canada in 2010 to save any money. After 11 years abroad, we had saved enough for a down payment. Moves back in 2022, got the house in 2023, and now we have to move back overseas to pay for it. We have good jobs, but they pay better overseas. Ever time we come back to Canada, we feel punished and we’re not sure why we stay, except for our son.
Well if it is locals – what is meant by locals? Many of these locals are from India in the first place I would think as about 1 in 4 Canadian citizens are foreign born. I will bet anything that these are the locals Mr. Punjabi is referring to. Good riddance and don’t let door hit you on the way out.
wow, that’s the most racist comment I’ve read in a long time
No, boomer. It’s young people who can’t afford to live in the country you left us.
The immigration should prioritize candidates with post-graduation education who can help the workforce rather than handouts.
It has nothing to do with Indians though, I am one, relocated to Toronto 1995, several years later the company decided to move me to NYC, laid off several people and shut down the Canadian Subsidiary. In my experience higher education always get better opportunities.
While I don’t disagree that housing affordability is likely a large reason Canadians want to leave, why doesn’t the analysis mention the bubble in the 1980’s? Emigration is very low then – any thoughts?
I’ve been involved in real estate in the 70s 80s as a broker in the Vancouver area. There was no bubble in the ’80s for long just 1980 to 1981. You saw in 1982 22.5% mortgage rates for about 18 months from 1982 to 84. I saw a house prices drop in many areas in the lower mainland lose 2/3 of the value during the ’80s. I specialize in selling foreclosure properties and building homes.
Let’s not forget the other fact: both Prime Ministers were called Trudeau. Last time the separatists couldn’t afford to leave. This time, they can’t afford to stay…
100%
CANADIAN HOUSES, CONDOS AND FARMS WERE NEVER MORE EXPENSIVE THAN AMERICAN PROPERTY
REALTOR FEES FOR DECADES ON TOP OF PRICES MADE THEM OUTRAGEOUSLY PRICED
EVERYBODY IN CANADA WASTE THEIR MONEY ON REALTOR FEES NOT ACTUAL REAL ESTATE
CANADA = LAND OF DUMB
Realtor fees are not the reason that Cdn. real estate is over priced. The reasons are: overseas investors who didn’t care what they paid, money laundering, mom & pop investors and suburban builders who set the price according to their profit model.
Not really a great idea to call Canadians dumb.
Don’t forget the giant casino they called the presale condo market. The best money laundering scheme ever in history and the Chinese plus other foreign bad players took full advantage of this.
That’s what they’d like you to believe Sharon but the real reasons CDN real estate is price where it is today can be traced back to policy, namely: CDN mortgage debt as a % of GDP historically averaged 30-40%/GDP up until the year 2000 and for context the Feb 1 1999 benchmark home price in Canada was $163,000 Toronto $223,000 Vancouver = $249,000 & 5yr fixed = 7%. But going forward from 2000 mortgage debt as a % of GDP began to steadily increase reaching an astounding 100% of GDP in 2022 and to put this irresponsible, risky, and predominantly unproductive lending in context the catalyst for US 2007 GFC was 72% mortgage debt/GDP. Credit fuels demand and when demand exceeds/outstrips supply price bids up. So the questions to ask are: what we’re the financial systems (banks, BOC, CHMC) reasons for this historical divergence from previous lending practices? Why was an excess credit policy targeted to residential housing, fueling demand, inflating price, blowing past 2007 warning signs to an all in 100%/GDP housing house of cards economy? CDNs aren’t wealthier they’re more in debt and the rate of lending facilitated CDNs buying each others homes for more and more = got the same but paid more. There was no housing shortage there was excessive credit fueling demand. Policy can create infinite zeros overnight to stimulate demand/economy but producers cannot increase supply equally overnight. That said home builders know their market, build to meet demand and there was no shortage of supply until 2020 policy spiked immagration to 1million per year at the same time policy dropped rates to near zero in addition to QE asset purchases / gobbled up mortgages so banks could churn out mortgages to meet overwhelming demand = 146% the 10yr avg in 2020 and even more 2021. Why was housing targeted? Who were the buyers? Not your avg CDN, sent home on lockdown, no idea when returning to work yet decided emmasse “hey nows a great time to buy a house!” No way, I checked March 2020 listing spiked – that was your avg CDN sensing risk but then April saw the fueled demand, I’ll dub inside buyers, drive down supply from 6 months inventory to 1 months. This is no accident, its coordinated policy, beginning in 2000 UK, US, Canada, elsewhere I imagine housing was targeted. Now here’s the other side of the story: CDN trade = imports + exports consistently expanded from 1945 to the year 2000 reaching 83.3% of GDP. But from 2000 to 2008 CAD gained reaching parity with USD, diminishing trade and shrinking industry, in particular exports given the 25%+ greater exchange cost. Come 2008 trade had fallen to 58% / GDP then stagnated to today in real (GDP) terms, only inflated nominally in price/ nGDP. Thus, why did CAD gain when exports fell? And why was a domestic housing economy policy employed to mask over if not replace the fundametally sound, trade based real economy CDNs built from 1945-2000. From 2000 to today, 25years, did not happen accidentally – banks pumped mortgages, BOC lowered rates and juiced excessively 2020 then jacked rates 6% in 1yr come 2022 and CHMC has been writing risky policy in aggregate/ holding the bag – some $2T in 2022. This isn’t incompetence, its treason, its fraud and its their policy that rigged the economy to implode and tit for tat tariffs is the match and protects no one, no industry, inflates nothing because tariffs are deflationary because just because a price goes up does not mean that good sells and when all goods go up unless the money supply increases then demand will fall equal to the tariffed higher price increase. Supply increases, curtailing production, leading to layoffs, resulting in less demand and reduced price as the economic engine and standards of living begin to spiral down – we know this because US Smoot Hawley Tariffs tariffed the world and the world tariffed back in 1930 and global trade fell 66% over the next 4yrs as every nation, including the US imported and exported less. So everything you’ve seen this year is theatre. Scammy traitors are robbing generations and destroying nations in real time and from trade to trade war to war. That’s the direction of travel.
Surely you must agree that realtor fees are atrociously expensive. The services that they provide is practically null – putting your house as a listing, opening a couple of doors, turning on the lights…for ridiculous fees.
Average realtor fees per transaction, cost, (Stats CDN, Canadian RE revenues divide by total transactions) is ~$42,000. They rode the same commission on growing house dollars. Dollar fees per transaction, grew faster than inflation. No productivity gains either. A lot could be done to improve this; just as other sectors have made productivity gains.
And in the Greater Vancouver area as a large majority of the realtors are now Jeets. Fancy pants types in many cases making all the moola so they can import more of their friends and relatives. This will be a boon to the under the table construction trade for illegal basement suites and sleeping rooms. Also a huge benefit for the fast food industry and those Canadian corporations favouring low cost imported labour. This is today’s British Columbia economy.
I was a real estate salesman for about 16 years started in 1977 in the lower mainland at British Columbia. Apparently the average realtor sells only about five homes a year back in the day that was either a good week or possibly a weekend for me. Or a decent month. I agree real estate sales people are paid too much and there should be a lot fewer of them. Back in the day we really had to work for our commissions and got paid basically the same percentage but the homes were much much lower priced. Plus to make any real money at it you have to learn a bit about financing actually quite a bit not like these guys today they just send you to a broker. Yeah to know more about short sales dealing with cmhc all sorts of things. You even had to put up your own signs in most cases. Advertising was expensive in those days too now you got the internet that’s practically free. I don’t feel sorry for these characters today they don’t have to work at all basically compared to what we used to do.
I’ve read lots of these articles. Is is possible to mention where they are going to? 2017 all the best and brightest went to California and made their fortunes. However, some of these people are coming back. The US isn’t friendly for us any more.
Have to process the other side of the equation: find all visas in other countries granted to residents from Canada.
The US isn’t hostile to Canadians. Maybe the bot accounts on X, but in reality the US doesn’t even think about us unless they need to trigger a distraction.
Like the house I just sold 3 years ago the guy paid about $35,000 property purchase tax and the full Realtors commission was about 45,000 plus GST. Of course I saved that because I acted as a listening salesman and ground the commission down to 20,000. The 80,000 that went into this transaction with the property purchase tax and the real estate commission was more than the average house was in my heyday of selling real estate in the lower mainland a British Columbia. And most of the times we’re dealing with 10 to 12 to 13% interest rates on mortgages. The world has gone insane and I pity young people trying to buy their first home today it’s a joke. And I would say at least half of my business over my long career was helping first time buyers get into houses. That lower end of the market is now a lawyer married to a doctor or a CEO and his trophy wife who can barely squeak into a home.
Article distorts. Over 95% of the population reduction are temporary workers and temporary residents. Citizens leaving Canada are nothing, less than 5%.
It doesn’t, it literally addresses your point by saying people dismiss one Canadian leaving as long as we make two.
Young adults are leaving which is why everywhere Ontario and East feels like a friggin retirement village.
I noticed lately there’s a lot of white kids working to take outs at the fast food restaurants which I haven’t seen for quite a while. I wonder why?
I think a more illuminating graph would be emigration per capita population. The population (citizens and permanent residents) of Canada more than doubled in the interval shown in the graphs, so, it is more than reasonable that the emigration numbers doubled in the same interval.
Ironically, this is the point they addressed in explanation. “Losing 1 Canadian is fine if we can make two more! To reduce the problem with outflows we just need to increase the inflows!”
Same non-sense they keep pushing with net banking and accounting. If a person burns down a house and then builds one in another city, the net balance of houses destroyed is zero—so everything is fine, right?
This is like them using EBITA to address flawed net, then when that looks flawed use adjusted EBITA. Empirically, it’s a problem that’s only resolved in the context of the people who need the adjustments to solve the problem.
Maybe it’s got something to do with another major issue, Canada is on path to become a dictatorship country and not to mention that people are starting to realize how over taxed and over regulated we are.
Oh man, you got that right. Exit 2026 here we come!! Better a year (or three early) than a day too late. This place will be unrecognizable in 2-3 years. https://x.com/KarlDHarrison/status/2003138366129545555?s=20
I’ve read Better Dwelling since pre-Covid times, and appreciate the insights I’ve learned. I can finally return the favour.
ON, QC and BC have about 75% of the Canadian population, so we’d expect them to be be 70 to 80% of emigration whether times are good or bad, and whether province-specific policies have come into play.
Best holiday wishes for the B.D. team.
Not only are many Canadian citizens and residents emigrating out of Canada due to the insane cost of housing here, and the impacts from that on the cost of everything else we buy as well, but those who remain aren’t having babies due to the crappy housing situation here. No one will willingly have two or more kids in a 700sf condo!
Politicians who think we can just fix demographics by propping up house prices (no banks or boomers left behind!) and then bringing in more immigrants as soon as the backlash dies down are sorely mistaken – immigrants are smart people, and as word spreads internationally about our housing bubble, fewer will choose Canada, and those that come here anyway will find that life here sucks – having to live in a rented basement suite for a decade will put a crimp on any interest they had in helping grow our economy by buying stuff and having babies.
Cool. Maybe the supposed net mass exodus will help diminish housing demand leading to bring real estate prices down to be more attainable for all who are still hoping to own before retirement.
I agree with the many comments that real estate commissions are way too high given the high property prices today and for the relative amount of effort required by agents today. So why aren’t more sellers using the lower commission agencies OR negotiating for lower fees OR doing FSBO given the absurd traditional 5-6% commission model (on top of all the other transaction expenses)?