Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Real Estate Is The Fastest Falling In The G7, Remains Frothy
Canadian real (inflation-adjusted) home prices fell 2.1% in Q4 2025, bringing the decline from their 2022 peak to 28.4%. The correction is the sharpest among G7 countries, after Canada led the group for growth and prices nearly doubled between 2010 and the peak. Yet even after a correction heard ‘round the world, Canadian home prices retain the second-largest gain in the G7 since 2010. The bubble is losing air, but it’s far from collapsing, and prices likely have a long way to go before returning to historically healthier levels.
Canadian Mortgage Arrears Hit Recession Levels, Reality Is Likely Worse
Canada’s banks continue to see mortgage credit erode. The CBA reports its member banks’ arrears rate climbed to 0.29% in May, more than double its 2022 low and the highest in nearly a decade. The number of mortgages in arrears rose to 14,061, up 27.1% from last year—a pace of growth rarely seen outside a recession. With new originations also failing to replace outgoing loans, banks are facing a rare combination of shrinking mortgage books and rising delinquencies.
Nova Scotia Home Prices Make Near-Record Jump Despite Falling Demand
The price of a typical home in Nova Scotia jumped 5.2% (+$23k) to $463,430 in June, marking the second-largest monthly increase on record. What was behind the sudden surge? It wasn’t demand, with sales falling 2.5% y/y and sitting 19.4% below their June 2021 peak. It wasn’t supply either, with new listings rising 5.4% y/y to a four-year high. The province’s demand balance was the weakest for June since 2019, while Halifax—its largest market—actually saw prices fall. Nova Scotia home prices appear to be rising on little more than the perception of a tight market, a narrative that buyers seem willing to entertain.
Canada’s Real Estate Industry Is Slashing Sales & Price Forecasts Again
Canada’s housing industry is lowering its expectations for 2026. In July, both CMHC and CREA cut their forecasts for home sales and price growth. Each began the year expecting a significant rebound following sluggish sales since 2022. However, not even a faint sign of that recovery has materialized, triggering another round of downward revisions—the second in less than a year.
Canadian Population Underreported, Artificially Improving Job Data: CIBC
Canada reported its sharpest population decline in generations—but it may not have happened. Statistics Canada’s latest estimates show the population shrinking by roughly 234,600 people since July 2025, though the agency warned that an unusually large revision is coming in September. CIBC economists believe the estimates undercounted people who legally remained in the country, and project that the population didn’t contract at all. That may sound like a positive growth surprise, but the bank suggests the opposite. An understated population artificially improved per-capita GDP and the employment rate, meaning any upward revision would reveal weaker performance than previously reported.
