Canadian real estate is in for a long winter if last month was a preview of things to come. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows home prices fell further in November, after a small drop in new listings was met with a much bigger drop in sales. Prices haven’t just rolled back to the lowest level in nearly five years—the monthly declines are once again getting larger.
Canadian Home Prices Have Shed More Than $176k Since Peak
Canadian Real Estate Prices: The price of a typical home across Canada.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Canadian home prices aren’t just falling—losses are accelerating again. The benchmark price dropped 0.9% (-$5,900) to $664,900 in November, the biggest monthly drop in four months. Prices are down 3.7% (-$25,600) from last year and have shed 21.0% (-$176,900) from the peak, returning to February 2021 levels—and still falling.
Canadian Real Estate Sales Pullback Below Historic Norms
Canadian real estate sales for the month of November.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Canadian real estate sales pulled back last month. There were 33,895 sales in November, down 10.7% from last year. While better than the initial 2022 and 2023 slump, it’s not much better—it was still 8.9% below November 2019. The minor improvements seen last year have evaporated.
Canadian Real Estate Listings Remain Robust
Canadian real estate new listings for the month of November.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Despite being a relatively slow time of year, sellers haven’t pulled back nearly as much as usual. There were 55,361 new listings reported in November, down 2.0% from last year. This remains 16.0% above November 2019 and the third highest for the month over the past decade—only slightly behind last year, and November 2015.
The unadjusted sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) fell to 61.2% in November, down 6 points from last year. While that’s technically a sellers’ market, this is a seasonal data skew. The seasonally adjusted SNLR was close to 53%, firmly in balanced territory.
However, it’s important to understand that the SNLR isn’t particularly helpful as an indicator this time of year. The unadjusted SNLR was the second-lowest in the past decade, only behind 2023. We aren’t seeing a series of rare sellers’ markets where prices plunge; we’re seeing a seasonal skew that persists even with generous seasonal adjustments.
Data from November to February tends to be volatile and less reliable, with seasonal lulls skewing both sales and prices. What matters this year is inventory—especially in cities like Toronto and Vancouver, where levels are building up. Elevated winter inventory without a matching rise in sales risks compounding downward pressure on prices if the spring inflow remains healthy.
Toronto and Vancouver problems. Halifax is undervalued, and considering it has everything those cities have plus ocean views—it has the fundamentals to become a more valuable market.
Pretty sure Vancouver has that ocean thing going for it. Plus low taxes and proximity to silicon valley.
Isn’t Halifax a government hub? Isn’t rising prices in a region where gov is the primary industry, often a red flag that tends to occur in developing countries?
the economy of NS probably has more in common with developing countries than Toronto or Van
Halifax is not undervalued from a regular person’s perspective. Perhaps to people who suck the blood out of economies might think more blood can be taken, but I hope reality is a 2×4 across their heads this spring.
Fact of the matter is this is a very reasonable price for a home, but the excess paid due to the stimulus means prices will have to overcorrect. You cannot pull forward demand to send prices 20% higher in a year and then have a gap where things return to normal. Those buyers that were pulled forward will be missing from this cohort and that will create excess supply.
This is a good point. It was 250,000 pulled forward buyers, so we’re looking at maybe 25% reduction for 5 or so years. Though I don’t know how that factors when we consider stimulus pulled buyers forward since 2015, and investors were the buyers—not young adults stepping up to the market.
Good insights. Add to that the problem of purpose built rental units. How does that impact the general market?
One would think lower prices would be an issue, but the point of this stimulus and “multi-generational infrastructure investment” is to bolster prices and prevent a GDP rollback. Not to mention the securitization value.
really what we’re looking at is the gov is preferring 10-15 years of no buying to ensure prices stay at a point that’s just out of demand’s reach.
It’s surprising that the floodgates weren’t open to lure gullible immigrants to living in a post-national state. More immigrants mean more artificial demand for Canadian housing.