New home sales across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) went into a deep freeze ahead of winter. Greater Toronto new home prices slipped even further in November, according to data from Altus Group and BILD GTA. The decline was driven by the second-highest inventory for the month meeting with its weakest sales on record. November isn’t known as a busy time for sales but the region is seeing nearly a tenth of the volume recorded just 4 years ago.
Toronto New Home Prices Have Plunged Up To 24% and Continue To Head Lower
The Altus Group benchmark price for a new home across Greater Toronto.
Source: Altus Group; BILD GTA.
Greater Toronto new home prices continue to grind lower as expectations reset. The Altus benchmark price for single-family homes fell 1.2% (-$17.8k) in November to $1.42 million. Prices are now down 9.0% (-$140.0k) from last year and 24.4% (-$472.0k) from the peak. These substantial declines only take prices back to roughly early 2021 levels, emphasizing how sharp the climb has been.
Condo apartments have held up better, but cracks are surfacing under the pressure. The benchmark price slipped 0.9% (-$8.8k) in November to $1.02 million, up 0.5% (+$5.1k) from last year and 17.9% (-$224.0k) lower than peak. A monthly move much bigger than the annual rate implies a shift for the market that seemed relatively sticky after shedding nearly a fifth of value.
Toronto New Home Sales Plunge To A Record Low
Greater Toronto New Home Sales: November.
Source: Altus Group; BILD GTA; Better Dwelling.
Behind the downward pressure on new home prices is a complete lack of demand. There were just 510 Greater Toronto new home sales in November, down 32% from last year and setting an all-time low for the month. New home sales aren’t particularly strong this time of year normally, but just 4 years ago the volume was nearly 10x higher.
Both segments took a big dive from last year: Single-family sales represented 345 units (-32% y/y), while condos represented 165 sales (-40%). Condos typically outpace low-rise units, with the flip being largely a reflection of the weak sales in the City of Toronto—simultaneously the high-rise construction capital of the world, where just 46 condo apartments sold.
Toronto New Home Inventory Remains 2nd Highest On Record
Greater Toronto New Home Inventory: November.
Source: Altus Group; BILD GTA; Better Dwelling.
Inventory eased slightly in November but remains historically elevated, with the composition telling an important story. Greater Toronto new home inventory stood at 21,105 units, down 3.9% from last year’s record but still the second-highest November on record.
Buyers and the real estate industry should take note of the split. Single-family inventory represented 5,713 of those units, climbing 18.9% from last year, while condo inventory fell 10.3% to 15,392 units. Weak condo demand has pushed developers to pause or delay projects until conditions improve. At the same time, relatively stronger demand for single-family homes has redirected builder focus—adding another layer of downward pressure on prices.
Last month’s market reflects a broader trend seen across the country. It’s easy to dismiss weak November sales as it’s one of the slower months. But inventory remains elevated and isn’t clearing as quickly as demand is falling. If this imbalance persists through the winter, it risks leaving the market with a heavy inventory overhang heading into the much busier spring season.
Sweet jebus. How did single-family home prices fall over $400k and are still $1.4 million? Canadian real estate isn’t just a bubble but its at the point of complete and utter absurdity. This is how Hong Kong killed its economy too.
I thought prices were crazy in Montreal. No offense, but why do people live in Toronto? It’s expensive and boring.
Toronto is boring-ish, but the misconception here is the cost of living.
Most of the people claiming it’s “world class,” and “still cheap” nonsense are either selling real estate or have the undisclosed secret—they aren’t paying anything close to what everyone else is.
People who bought their condo for $200k and detached house for $400k in 2015 are now telling everyone that everything should cost a million dollars. It’s going to be a real kick in the teeth when they stop using 2016 data for property taxes.
Or the other secret: No one pays the price developers advertise. They’re being used to help inflate the assessment so the deals can close, but buy those same units on the resale market and we’re suddenly 30% cheaper.
LOL!
‘Down’ to 1 & 1.4 million.
Gonna have to come down 50% of this new price
There is the problem ! You better dwelling are talking about the financial swing in prices ! That is all really anyone is concerned about ! That is the sickness and the only reason ! You cannot have a bubble without greed ,even the idea of making money off real estate is flawed to some degree the news as of lately has put Canada on an over grown equity pedestal . Canadians who are over extended financially in my opinion have similarities to having a margin call that needs to be paid after you failed to understand the nature of the game.
Think about it ? When you buy a stock through your broker or what ever trading house you use at times and if you have a margin account you may borrow against your equity but if the stock drops you get the call from the bank or they sell you out. On a financial side of home ownership, if you cannot pay they will take your house.
It is really interesting how bad this might possible get? Personally at the moment, I look at Canadian real estate as the biggest depreciating asset class in the world . This is how I look at it ! That is just me but if I was to try and detail my position a little clearer the reason I mention margin calls based on stock holdings is due to the fact that HELOC lines of credit seem to have similarities . All Canadians that have borrowed against their equity in their house are at serious risk of having it taken away because it is about nothing more within reason.
“Wish I may, wish I might wish upon this star tonight”
This might be your only option ? Or pray to the Gods of banking that some way you might be spared this terrible fate .
LOL. What in the drunken Boomer non-sense is this?
I don’t know if they can afford a home or not, but my guess is since the host on their youtube is a real estate broker that specializes in development finance, and they’re interviewing the Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve, they seem like they can probably afford something kids half their age could.
and before you assume I’m just jealous that I can’t afford a home like you, I run low rise for one of the GTA’s Big Five developers. It’s comical that you think this is offensive when it’s an UNDERSTATEMENT of price declines as Altus uses asking prices and doesn’t factor concessions, size, or quality.
-24% is still unaffordable to people who make a normal level of income. Everyone I know who is buying houses or condos at this point is buying them as “investments.” They all own multiple homes. “Home prices have dropped 24%; time to buy a house and rent it out!” They’re not buying them to live in them. The gov’t can end speculation by taxing speculators. This practice of people “living in” the condos they are buying and flipping is such a scam.