RBC Forecasts Canadian Mortgage Defaults Will Start Rising Next Year

Canadian real estate markets aren’t yet in the clear, despite the surge in buying activity. RBC Capital Markets, in a note to institutional clients, is forecasting mortgage defaults won’t rise until the second half of 2021. Analysts authoring the report said a combination of payment deferrals and government support, “kicked the can down the road.”

Mortgage Deferrals Allowed Savings

Analysts from Canada’s largest bank believe deferrals and supports helped build savings. The surge in household savings rate to 28% in Q2 2020 is believed to be a result of CERB and mortgage deferrals. This combination allowed households to bank a few months of mortgage payments.

Savings are expected to provide a longer cushion, but it’s not permanent. Calculations from the analysts show an average deferred mortgages of $293,000. They assume at the average 5-year rate of 2.95%, with a 25 year amortization, works out to an average payment of $1,400/month. Significantly lower than current buyers may think it is. The savings cushion is expected to give a runway of 4 to 6 months.

Modified EI and Canada Recovery Benefit To Delay

So, we should see the defaults in four to six months? Not exactly. RBC thinks enhanced EI, and programs like the Canada Recovery Benefit, delay the trend. Currently those supports won’t end until March or April at the earliest. This has them estimating 4 to 6 months from then, in Q3 2021 or Q4. 

This assessment is very similar to those made by the BoC as well the CMHC, Canada’s state owned mortgage insurer. These organizations don’t expect the arrears rate to rise until next year. The BoC and CMHC have said this since the beginning of the pandemic. Despite this, Canadians have been urged by many players in the industry to proceed, because the coast is clear.

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  • Trader Jim 4 years ago

    The longer they government provides supports, the less relevant cities will become. It’s basically just providing runway to move to cheaper locations.

  • C.D.R. 4 years ago

    I guess I better list by Q2 2021 to give me some time to sell, and wait out for the eventual collapse.

  • Fight Back 4 years ago

    Let all political parties take note, NDP won BC because housing have become too unaffordable. Same thing will happen in Toronto. Liberals and conservatives will lose an entire generation of voters because thats who housing bubble screw young families.

    We are seeing these stupid corruption politicians digging their own political grave.

    • Gmmmmmm 4 years ago

      Liberals didn’t keep their promise to punish speculators and bring down home prices in Toronto. Instead housing cost doubled under them. In will never vote for these corrupt politicians again. Fuk them, they dont care about me, I dont care about them.

      • SH 4 years ago

        Remember in last year’s election when Trudeau promised to implement a nation wide foreign buyer tax? What happened to that? Don’t we need the money? Are the Liberals putting foreign speculator interests ahead of Canadians again? Crushing income taxes imposed on Canadian workers but heaven forbid foreign RE speculators be asked to pay anything.

        Very hard to be loyal to a country that isn’t loyal to its citizens.

    • george 4 years ago

      Politicians and diapers must be changed often for the same reason.
      – Mark Twain-

  • Theresa 4 years ago

    When the deferral/ defaults kick-in in the Spring, things should prove interesting as people discover income tax owed on their CERB/EI income.

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