Canada

Everything Canadians Know About Inflation Is Wrong, Here’s Why

Everything Canadians Know About Inflation Is Wrong, Here’s Why

Everyone’s talking inflation, but how many Canadians know what it means? When the majority of people (including government officials) mention inflation, they actually mean Consumer Price Index. While the Consumer Price Index is a measure of price change over time, the number grossly underestimates the rise of true inflation. If you’ve heard the government mention “inflation” and quote a number that’s much lower than you’re experiencing, here’s why.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The most commonly quoted measure of inflation in Canada is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The only problem is it doesn’t measure inflation, it measures consumer spending behaviour. It’s used by the Bank of Canada (BoC), and the Canadian government to help set policy, and determine pensions. Naturally, it skews much lower and more conservative than reality. Officially, CPI was only 1.6% in the year ending April 2017 – which has many journalists and politicians incorrectly claiming that inflation was only 1.6%. If you’ve been suspicious that inflation is higher, you’re probably right.

Basket Structure

CPI in Canada is determined by Statistics Canada, using a weighted basket of goods and services. 600 goods and services are tracked and broken down into 8 categories that are weighted. The largest category is shelter, weighted at 27.15% currently. Apparently,  Statistics Canada thinks Canadians devoted a higher percentage of their income to shelter in 2009 than in 2015. A breakdown of the other categories are below, and you can see that this weighting is nowhere near your reality.

Note the basket weight for shelter is only 27.15% in 2015. A survey from trillion dollar fund Blackrock found that the average Canadian spends 43% of their income on shelter. Source: Statistics Canada.

Basket Substitution

One of the bigger issues traders and economists have with the CPI is substitution bias. When measuring products for the basket, they’ll substitute what they call “comparable items” for the cheapest one. StatsCan uses the example of coffee and tea. If coffee is cheaper, they’ll use coffee. If tea is cheaper, they’ll use tea. Unfortunately, reality doesn’t work that way. Your millennial ass that’s powered by coffee isn’t going to switch to tea because it’s cheaper. Tracking prices and assuming consumers will always switch to the cheaper product isn’t an accurate way to gauge how the cost of living changes.

Finding Real Inflation

US Economist David Ranson once described CPI as “an official government-massaged measure” and said it doesn’t “detect the onset of inflation as quickly as financial markets.” He believes commodities are a more accurate predictor of inflation, more specifically gold. In his paper Applied Supply-Side Economics, he argues that since gold is the only money that cannot be debased, it becomes the most reliable benchmark of currency. Debased is a fancy word for reduced in value, like when a government spikes the money supply.

Using gold is a much more primitive measure of inflation, but it doesn’t mean it’s less accurate. Price of gold in a local currency goes up, inflationary forces are at work. Price of gold goes down, disinflationary forces are at work. He argues it’s been able to capture inflation up to 6 years faster than CPI.

Now I wouldn’t throw away the use of CPI and strictly start using gold as the single measure of inflation. There’s no single measure that can capture how the cost of living moves. So ask yourself what you’re hoping to understand when you look at inflation. If you’re looking to pay government pensioners a minimal increase, sure CPI works. If you’re looking to save for a house, that 2% inflation number likely isn’t going to be helpful. Instead, use a variety of indicators to help understand the context of the economy.

Over the next few months we’ll be rolling out some new indexes to give more of a variety when trying to gauge inflation. Some will be light hearted and simple, some will be the aggregate of tens of thousands of data points only machines could analyze.

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15 Comments

  • Reply
    Skeptical Citizen 1 year ago

    Good thing the Canadian government liquidated all of the gold in their reserves, right before the dollar went to crap. Now they don’t have to be the ones that tell you how much they weakened the currency.

  • Reply
    Dave C 1 year ago

    Is the government trying to pull a fast one with everything all of a sudden, or are they just getting worse at hiding it?

  • Reply
    Micheal 1 year ago

    Many people I speak to spend at least 50% on shelter. So yeah, that Blackrock statistic sounds more in line than the government’s weight of shelter for the average family.

    • Reply
      Owen 1 year ago

      How much people choose to spend on their investment is not the same thing as a change in the cost of living.

      • Reply
        Alistair McLaughlin 1 year ago

        Shelter is a cost of living, not an “investment”, despite what your realtor, mortgage broker, or parents might tell you.

        • Reply
          Owen 1 year ago

          I mostly agree but have to insist that only the interest, taxes, and other expenses are a cost of living. Equity in your home is savings even if it doesn’t earn a good rate of return.

          • Bay Street Guy 1 year ago

            Equity in your home isn’t savings, it’s equity. The difference between rich people and middle class millionaires are rich people understand that a home isn’t an investment, it’s an asset on your book that has no value unless liquidated.

  • Reply
    dana 1 year ago

    in the current months, GTA properties went up YoY by over 30%… we all know, as consumers, how we spend money… 1.6% inflation seems extremely off!!

  • Reply
    Secret 1 year ago

    Hey I just really wanted to thank you guys. You nailed it with this article. I’ve always known that CPI is bullshit but couldn’t figure it out. It’s they weigh the different categories. There’s no way Canadians only spend 27% on shelter. It is way more than that and that would skew the entire CPI. Great job and I look forward to more on this topic.

  • Reply
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    Richard Leblanc 4 months ago

    Maybe we should just use the term overall cost of living. I’ll start the bidding at OCL. Put that in a book some where in one of our learning institutions. After a few debates between professors and indebted students someone will carry it with them into Goldman Sachs or Berkshire. Next crash will produce a new generation of ideas and through attrition the sanctimonious religiously applied terminology will be absent from finals. Unfortunately brokers will have to refrain from using the new taboo in their endless crusade to make the holy 10% rich. My favorite is “what goes down will eventually come back up so it’s always a safe investment.” I will immediately double the price said the struggling merchant.

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