Canadian Youth Unemployment Close To Financial Crisis-Style Surge: NBF

Priced out of housing and now facing an eroding labor market, Canada’s young adults can’t catch a break. A new report from National Bank of Canada (NBF) warns that unemployment is on the rise across the country, but it’s surging for  young adults (15 to 24 years old). The demographic is seeing unemployment rise much faster than anticipated—at a pace not seen outside of the financial crisis. It isn’t likely to improve in the short-term either, according to the typically bullish bank. 

Canada Has Seen An Unusually Sharp Rise In Youth Unemployment

Source: NBF. 

Canadian unemployment is generally rising, but young adults are carrying most of the burden. The general unemployment rate has climbed 1.6 points since hitting a record low in 2022, a substantial increase. However, young adults saw the rate advance more than double that, adding 4.2 points to hit a rate of 13.6% in June. About 1 in 7 young adults are unemployed and unable to find work, despite being “ready, willing, and able.” 

Canadian Youth Unemployment Hasn’t Increased This Sharply Outside of A Financial Crisis

Source: NBF. 

If the current youth unemployment rate seems like it made a sharp climb, that’s because it did. NBF economists modeled the rise based on the previous recessions, and the current trajectory is rising 2 points faster than expected. 

“In other words, the current rise in youth unemployment is disproportionate to historical norms…,” explains Matthieu Arseneau, deputy chief economist at NBF. 

He further implies the increase isn’t just unusually fast, but it’s never accelerated at such a rate outside of a crisis. “The total increase is beginning to approach the cumulative rise recorded during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the speed of increase in recent months is similar to that of past recessions,” he explains. 

The problem is broadly seen across the provinces, but amplified in Ontario. NBF explains this is due to the concentration of young immigrants arriving in the province. Since they compete for similar experience-building roles, the decline in vacancies and “oversupply” of labor is amplifying concerns in the province. The bank estimates more than half of youth unemployment is located in the province.

Canadian Youth Unemployment Unlikely To Improve Soon, Job Vacancies Contract

Economies tend to run in cycles, and periods of prosperity are routinely followed by downturns. With virtually every policymaker boasting of the economic strength in the country, this has got to be a temporary issue that will subside in the next few employment reports, right? 

NBF isn’t so optimistic. They cite rising vacancies, explaining the “…vast majority of sectors are overstaffed.” Declining per capita output indicates people are producing less and less, and that is most likely to lead to layoffs. Once again, a burden that tends to fall on younger adults and less experienced workers. 

“Unfortunately, we are not confident that hiring prospects will improve any time soon.” explains Arseneau. 

Falling rates aren’t expected to bring enough stimulus to soften the blow in the near term either. 

The NBF report further reinforces earlier data that suggests headwinds are approaching. Earlier this year, the Bank of Canada (BoC) warned that unemployment is expected to rise, and most of the increase will be felt by young adults. Young adults can’t win these days, eh? 

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  • STEVE STRUTHERS 4 months ago

    Housing crisis. Cost-of-living crisis. And now young people can’t get jobs. Gotta wonder how far away we are from a revolution. At this rate, can’t be far. This country is collapsing, and fast.

  • Mark Bayly 4 months ago

    Trudeau will flood the country with millions more people and tens of billions more in debt before he gets dismissed He could careless about youth unemployment and the youth voted for him .

  • Appa 4 months ago

    The government can redefine recession, poverty, and inflation all it wants. That doesn’t change the reality people feel, it only prolongs the problem since people don’t where to find it.

  • Ian Brown 4 months ago

    Good thing young people and immigrants are just canon fodder in Canada. What was it they said? We can just get new ones if the others are driven out? LOL.

  • Jaspreet 4 months ago

    The immigrants get blamed but the government and schools keep telling people abroad that there’s guaranteed jobs when you graduate with the government. It should be criminal what they do.

    What do they expect people to do after they put them in debt and then leave them stranded? Same story, ask the Uber and DoorDash drivers.

  • Craig 4 months ago

    The final phase of Colonializm: colonize your own population.

    • JayJay 4 months ago

      More like cannibalize, literal futures of the youth being sold for pennies on the dollar when considering the worth of CAD vs basket of goods. With no income and opportunities to earn experience, what’s left to do except become civil disobedience rioters?

  • Lisa D 4 months ago

    Parents, grandparents, help your children however you can, or they might not make it.
    Intergenerational wealth transfer may be their only hope for financial security.

  • Willy 4 months ago

    Good, isn’t Younger voted Trudue, no pity for them, looking for free stuff this is the results , NDP give free stuff they will vote , younger ruined our Canada cause they voted Trudue.

  • Lolek 4 months ago

    I spoke to a neighbor in her mid 20’s who just finished a year of study in environmental science. She complained about the lack of summer employment and blamed immigration which I was surprised about because it was always considered taboo to blame immigration. I told her that she should consider voting for the CPC next election as the obvious choice to address her employment and immigration concerns. She rebuffed this option because the CPC has no plan to address the environment and even claimed that for her, the environment is more important than whether she has employment. She thought the carbon tax was not high enough and it also was successful in curbing fossil fuel usage. She added that she hoped to be employed by the government in the area of environmental science after graduation. I clenched my teeth and ended the conversation thinking there is something wrong with the thinking of young people today and I worry about the future of this country.

  • TBee 4 months ago

    I think this is part of the demographic that our fearless leader appealed to. Fancy socks, social media etc. Hopefully, they learn that there aren’t always ‘sunny ways’ and the country’s budget doesn’t balance itself.

  • Bob Sinclair 4 months ago

    I only hire temporary foreign workers

  • Chris M 4 months ago

    It baffles me that people will still support this administration in the next election after the absolute mess they have made of so many promising lives. And all the lies, the navel gazing, the self-importance and smugness, the non-answers to every question. The complete inability critically evaluate the results of their policies. No, I am not excited about the alternatives, but I don’t think my body would physically let me check the box next to LPC. I would collapse on the floor from internal conflict and wake up hours later.

  • blackwaggingdog 4 months ago

    I wonder what this crisis has to do with the hundreds of thousands of unskilled youth who have arrived in Canada in the last couple of years on study permits. Since they aren’t residents, they can’t claim benefits, and they aren’t allowed to work full time, so they probably aren’t counted in employment statistics. But still…

    And I should emphasize that, historically, most international students were extremely high-achieving and skilled, because they pretty much *had* to be to get admitted to Canadian universities. I taught lots of international students who’ve gone on to make important contributions to the Canadian economy and their communities.

    However, now that Canadian (and UK, and Australian, etc.) universities depend on foreign students to make up the revenue that federal and provincial governments no longer provide, they have incentives to accept anyone with money and a pulse — and lots of small colleges I’d never heard of are suddenly accepting thousands of international students.

    I currently teach students in on a campus in a major city where there is not a single domestic student, and 95% of the students come from a single region of one country. Most have no technical skills, can barely operate basic software, can’t follow basic directions, and don’t speak any of Canada’s official languages. The institution must know these kids can’t succeed in “real” university, so they create whole programs and campuses that are basically segregated ghettos, to keep them from discovering how badly they’re getting ripped off.

    The curriculum they’re paying $25K/year to learn so basic an ordinary Grade 6 student could ace it without difficulty, but then an ordinary Grade 6 student doesn’t need 45 minutes to create a blank file in MS Word. Shady recruiters promised them $50/hour jobs that don’t exist, and they are desperate for work, but almost completely unemployable. To many of them the “study permit” represents a de facto work permit. I don’t think they present a serious threat to the careers of young Canadians, although some of them are illegally employed humping boxes at warehouses and grocery stores for less than $10/hr.

    Nevertheless: real youth unemployment must be much higher than the official stats suggest, and they might not be counted in those figures but obviously they gotta live *somewhere,* which must be contributing significantly to housing/cost-of-living issues. They bring a lot of money into the country, but it’s all going to landlords and for-profit “university” programs that do very little to contribute new knowledge and innovation to the country.

  • Frank 4 months ago

    The globalists have this all well planned. All G7 countries are experiencing the same colonization and issues. The youngers rightfully so ahould be angry, the portion of their inheritances is being gobbled up by the greedy too 1% . Fight back all you want, there’s no stopping this from the apex that is now in plain sight. Remember “You’ll own nothing and be happy” is becoming a reality for many.

  • Arnold 4 months ago

    About 20 or 25 year ago, you can afford to buy a house, not a condo, in GTA if you have a job as lawnmower, plumber, hairdresser, tailor, etc. or even simply a general labour, but today buying a house around GTA is a daydream.

  • Shine 4 months ago

    “Trudeau’s temporary resident cap could hurt the economy, business groups warn” – Yahoo News.

    That group has written to three Canadian government ministers crying that it is critical for Canada to have a big labor “reserve”.
    Obviously, the Canadian businesses have always relied on profiting on cheap labour rather than investing in productivity. They would fill the streets with desperate job seekers. They would receive thousands of resumes for each job opening.

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