Canadian policymakers created a bigger issue than the one they tried to solve with population growth. A new survey from Angus Reid found that 1 in 4 households are seriously considering leaving their province due to housing costs. Two key demographics are feeling the lion’s share of the pressure—young adults and recent immigrants. The problem is also spreading outside of major cities and into regions like Halifax and St Johns, traditionally more affordable but now slipping out of reach.
Over 1 In 4 Canadians Want To Ditch Their Province Due To Housing
Canadian real estate prices are pushing households to “seriously” consider leaving their province. The cost of shelter has over 1 in 4 (28%) households looking into leaving the province they reside. The share was higher in more expensive provinces like Ontario (39%), and British Columbia (36%).
Source: Angus Reid.
Provinces with more affordable shelter options are doing slightly better, such as Nova Scotia (25%), and Newfoundland (22%). Though that’s still roughly a quarter of each respective province feeling pressure to leave due to their housing costs.
The Issue Is Amplified In Cities, Especially Big Real Estate Markets
Being an issue of affordability, few would be surprised to hear the issue is worse in cities. The share ready to leave their province due to shelter was highest in Toronto, where over 2 in 5 (44%) of people are weighing their options. The surrounding 905 suburbs also have the same rate of people looking to flee, providing insight into why these households want to leave the province, not just move to the burbs.
Source: Angus Reid.
The share drops sharply after Toronto, but still represents significant potential outflows. Behind Toronto is Vancouver, where a third (33%) of Vancouver is considering a new province. Rounding out the top 3 cities that make residents want to scream is a new entrant in the pricey real estate scene—Halifax, where 1 in 4 (26%) of residents are considering a new province.
On the flip side of that data are the more affordable markets, where people are in a less urgent rush out the door. The two cities with the smallest share of people ready to leave the city were Winnipeg (16% of people), and Regina (15%). Both cities had rates similar to their respective provinces, and while low in contrast to Toronto and Vancouver, that’s still 1 in 7 people. That’s a problem.
Nearly 2 In 5 Recent Immigrants Want To Leave The Province They Currently Reside
Canada’s recent immigrants may be starting to question if they were oversold on opportunity. Almost 2 in 5 (39%) immigrants that arrived within the past 10 years, are considering leaving their province due to housing costs. It’s much higher than the share of immigrants that arrived 10 or more years ago (30%), and people born in Canada (27%). Once again, the latter two may seem low in contrast but that’s still over 1 in 4 people.
Source: Angus Reid.
Over 2 In 5 Young Adults Are Considering Leaving Their Province
Canada wasn’t always an incredibly expensive place to live, especially in smaller towns. Consequently, overly stretched values impact young adults much more than older Canadians. It’s a trend that’s easily observed in the survey data.
Over 2 in 5 young adults (42%) aged 18 to 24 years old are currently planning their escape due home prices. Those ranging from 25 to 54 years old were fairly consistent, ranging from 32-35% considering moving. When we get those approaching retirement, there’s a big shift in recovery and timelines.
As Canadians reach their golden years, they’re less likely to want to leave their province. Just 1 in 4 people (25%) from 55 to 64 years old were considering a move during the survey. It falls to just 13% for those 65+. Older Canadians are the most likely to own their home and least likely looking for new career opportunities, making the relatively small share understandable.
Canada’s soaring home prices have produced very different outcomes for different groups. On one hand, older households have seen their property values surge over the past few years. Rising prices are good for those positioned to benefit. Having stable, affordable homeownership drastically reduces the pressures of suddenly soaring real estate prices.
However, that’s generally not the scenario young adults and recent immigrants are facing. As home prices climbed faster than wages, homeownership moved further out of reach. At the same time, policymakers chasing aggressive population growth have produced a surplus of labor, creating more job competition and applying downward pressure on wages. Not surprisingly, the unemployment rate is significantly higher for these demographics growing increasingly frustrated with shelter costs.
Going to be hilarious when the stragglers realize that Freeland’s capital gains tax changes mean she gets a bigger cut on the export tax anyone that leaves has to pay.
Also a little surprised by hearing the CRA is accusing people who left Canada before the closing date of their property, are being accused of holding an investment property, and trying to negotiate taxes on what should have been tax free. When they get down to greasy negotiations like this, things are going to get a lot worse, really fast.
Interesting, so if a person sells a principle residence, do they have to pay capital gains tax, if one just takes the cashes and uses it to purchase sometime else like gold or art?
I moved to Halifax about 10 years ago. It was $300k for my house. Neighbourhood is going for $1.2 million. I absolutely would not have moved here if the price was getting close to Toronto.
Seriously, people are nice and there’s lots of government employment (for now), but I don’t understand what people are paying for. These places aren’t selling fast either, but they take almost a year to move… still “hot” according to Realtors on the news. FML
Pierre’s going to tear through government employment. More than half the employment created in the past 4 years has been government, not private industry. It should be a frickin’ crime what they’re doing.
Pierre is promising to give PR to all the students currently set to get the boot.
He’s not the messiah, he’s just a dumber, meaner Trudeau.
Toronto has no soul. They not like us in the rest of Canada.
Seriously, big city but it’s like the Disneyland of cities—you can watch a baseball game, a Raptors game, the Leafs, or a Taylor Swift concert. Otherwise the rest of the city is just in sad state of restaurants perpetually turning over, because the commercial rents are so high no one can actually make a dime.
I love how neither Victoria nor even the rest of the Island never makes these lists. We are a country unto ourselves.
A mass influx anywhere will result in rising housing prices. Most people need to live near employment. If Halifax and St. John’s are “slipping out of reach” where will people go?
An international analysis where they reviewed why housing affordability significantly declined in many countries since the early 2000s, they concluded the primary cause is too much red tape. Cities limiting construction in suburbs that they weren’t doing in the 1980s kind of thing. They used Toronto as an example, housing affordability remained constant for 30 years then started getting worse when they blocked expansion.
The problem isn’t people wanting to leave, it’s where are they going to go. The cheap markets are cheap for a reason.
Interest rates should go to 10 per cent and get rid of all this excess debt . Let the banks take the hit.
Friends hire friends and relatives in the federal public sector. That’s where the majority of jobs are going towards helping the cliques.