Canada

Canadian Real Estate Sales Have Dropped The Most Since The Great Recession

Canadian Real Estate Sales Have Dropped The Most Since The Great Recession

Canadian real estate has been on a tear, in almost every market… for almost a decade. Numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) indicate those days are coming to an end. Real estate is seeing price growth and sales numbers fall across the country, for the first time in years. The substantial tapering of these trends, likely indicates the beginning of a national down cycle.

National Real Estate Trends Influence Local Markets

If I had a dime for every time a real estate agent said there’s no Canadian real estate market, I would have a downpayment on a nice weekend property in Point Grey. The truth is, these agents are poorly informed. There are a number of national factors that impact real estate markets across the country, including mortgage availability, interest rates, the national economy, and consumer confidence. Those with experience in different asset markets, would view these as broad market trends. These impact the general market, and that’s why we have organizations like CREA. Yes, even the official real estate industry understands national trends are important.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Think of broad market trends as a large environmental factor. That is, it’s easier to see growth when the environment is right. If everyone across the country has cheap and easy credit, and consumer confidence is high, it’ll be easier to convince people to spend more on homes. If all of those factors are in the s**ter, it’s a little more difficult. It’s often helpful to see how the broad market is doing, to see if your local market is fighting an uphill battle.

Real Estate Prices Are In A Down Cycle

Canadian real estate prices are seeing price growth taper. National price growth tapered to 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, from a peak of 16.18% achieved in Q2 of that year. This is the first time we’re seeing price growth taper for two consecutive quarters since 2012. Now that’s still huge growth, but it’s on the tapering end of a long uptrend. The median growth over the past 46 years is only 2.6%. Negative price growth on the national level is a reasonable expectation.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Largest Drop In Real Estate Sales Since The Great Recession

Canadian real estate sales declined last year. CREA logged 516,257 sales in 2017, a 4.53% decline compared to the year before. This is the first sales decline since 2012, and the largest decline since 2008. A decline after a record year isn’t a huge deal. The largest decline since the Great Recession? Now that’s interesting. The government had to install new liquidity measures to preserve prices back then. Fun fact, financial innovation is always a factor in the bubbling of asset markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Down cycles in real estate are natural, and the healthy way to balance demand. They were first observed over a 100 years ago, and no healthy market sees an asset price continually rise. If prices and sales did continually rise, we would have bigger concerns about the value of the Canadian dollar, and the natural balance of sales. Although there should still be some questions about the value of Canadian money.

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96 Comments

  • Reply
    rippinmachines 3 months ago

    What do you think of Doug Ford dropping the foreign buyers tax?

    • Reply
      Trader Jim 3 months ago

      Doesn’t matter. I believe Stephen is the only person to have actually written about why foreign buyers are in Canada. They’re yield chasing, because of the anemic returns on fixed instruments. When interest rates rise, they go to fixed instruments. When interest rates are lowered, those with higher amounts of money go to real estate. Canada is now at the point where it can’t raise rates sustainably, and they’ve had to choke off the money supply for mortgages.

      The banking system is forcing lower home prices, to prevent systemic failure. Foreign buyers won’t buy homes that are dropping in price, and they won’t engage in capital flows that would raise the loonie in a traditional way.

      I would expect negative yields before I expect foreign buyers to flood this market. They’re trying to make money, they don’t want the shitty homes in a third tier city. The real estate industry did a great job tricking people into thinking that this was about demand for quality housing. Foreign buying was about demand for a share of the credit expansion homebuyers were taking out.

      • Reply
        MH 3 months ago

        It does matter. You are right, it’s not going to save this bubble from bursting but it clearly tells you who he is aiming to serve – RE industry. Apparently any hopes to fix this mess would not materialize if he is elected.

        The only reason for me commenting on politics is because the news is so related to the topic of this site.

        • Reply
          Realtard Pro 3 months ago

          Conservatives are always on the side of the real estate industry. Hudak even went to run OREA after his failed attempt at leadership.

        • Reply
          Lisa Graham 3 months ago

          Doug Ford wants as many RE transactions to take place as possible because of the huge proceeds of the Toronto Land Transfer Tax. He does not care who is buying foreign or domestic as long as those huge taxes keep rolling in. While the second Toronto LTT brought in by David Miller fills the city’s coffers, it makes moving, moving up or buying at all not affordable for so many local buyers. Getting rid of Foreign Buyers Tax or buildng new affordable house outside the core will NOT help or impress the RE industry. I hope measures to improve affordability where people in Toronto actually want to live like the Foreign Buyers Tax will continue for any positive impact for local buyers, though small, that they may have.

      • Reply
        Realtard Pro 3 months ago

        The one where they explain this is actually one of my favorite articles. The title didn’t make it clear that’s what they were writing about though.

        https://betterdwelling.com/urban-land-banking-101-supervillains-guide-ruining-local-real-estate-markets/

      • Reply
        Justin Thyme 3 months ago

        No, they are money laundering. Yield has nothing to do with it. The exchange rate had a bigger impact than the yield rate.

      • Reply
        Ben Samson 3 months ago

        Speaking from a Vancouver perspective, the “yield chasing” theory does not hold much clout for most transactions I am seeing.

        All single family/condo purchases have negative real yield. Almost always not even close to penciling. Multifamily CAPs (2.5-3%) and IRR (3-4%) are barely incentive to transition from a fix yield monetary instrument into multifamily.

        However I completely agree with your observation on fiscal policy. 2009-2012, while the train was already at full clip, our guys in Ottawa were shovelling coal as fast as they could to match rates with the US. However our economy was healthy-ish. Makes no sense to me? Now with this s-storm brewing, where do they plan on sending rates? Already a few pips from the bottom. Cannot divide by zero. Print and devalue.

    • Reply
      Justin Thyme 3 months ago

      He has to get elected first.

      The decision on this proposal will be a 100% political one, not an economic one.

      How many Ontario voters are in favor of it, how many oppose it?

      Foreign voters don’t have a vote.

      • Reply
        Mmr 3 months ago

        Conservatives are way ahead to lose. Almost 50 percent compare to liberals 20 percent. Liberals screw up the province for 15 years. With high carbon tax and hydro bills billions in debt making ontario almost bankrupt. I can’t wait liberals are gone for good.

        • Reply
          Justin Thyme 3 months ago

          So you are saying that Ontario voters will vote for allowing free market access to drug dealers ? Not bloody likely. Look to the results in Pennsylvania. A twenty point lead demolished in just months.

          • Mmr 3 months ago

            Are you kidding? Liberals will lose because they screw up everything. Jobs are moving south because of hydro bills so high increasing minimum wage making small business hard to survive…billions in debt…manufacturing jobs are all start to gone…people are fed up….you only want them for real estate tax other then that librals suck! I hope Doug don’t remove foreign tax but he has lot of good agenda for free market and make ontario competitive again…

          • Mmr 3 months ago

            Wayne approval is 18 percent….it will need a miracle for her to come back from the mess she and her corrupt politicians buddies created….

          • Justin Thyme 3 months ago

            Mmr, yadda yadda yadda.

            All right wing hyperbole.

            The only place jobs are going is China.

            A middle class bigger than all the people in America and Canada combined.

            Americans better start learning how to speak Chinese. Soon, America will be a branch plant economy to Chinese owners.

  • Reply
    Sammy 3 months ago

    Feels like this time around we’re going to do a 1970’s style decline, where we see anemic price growth for 2-3 years, before the bottom drops out. Would be interested to hear what you think?

  • Reply
    Todd 3 months ago

    Real estate markets don’t all move at the same time. A decline in Calgary, will not be a decline in Vancouver. It’s absurd to say otherwise.

    • Reply
      Justin Thyme 3 months ago

      So you are saying a recession only affects one part of the country and not the rest? Income tax rates? The prime rate? Federal central bank monetary policy? Federal government fiscal policy?

      • Reply
        Bluetheimpala 3 months ago

        He’s a troll… Go get’em JT!

        • Reply
          Justin Thyme 3 months ago

          Not sure if the correct term is ‘troll’ or just ‘stupid’. Hard to tell, around here. Trolls stand out in these blogs BECAUSE of their stupidity. Does that make ‘stupidity’ look like ‘troll’?

          • Bluetheimpala 3 months ago

            Lol… Ok. Same comment and structure. Classic cut and paste troll. Subversive and follows all the flags. Try again. Glad you’ve got his back.

          • Justin Thyme 3 months ago

            Blue, got his back, or got you back?

            The real art of trolling is to use a troll for your own objective.

            Trolls are so easy to set up.

            Most, anyway, They are so predictable. Stupidity usually is.

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 3 months ago

      Yu, is that you? Same exact comment from a few days ago but now you’ve gentrified. Wanna talk hockey, camping and best riding games mowers? If this is really Todd, my friend you are playing with fire… Look around BD… You’ve been warned. BD4L

    • Reply
      Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

      They all went up at the same time for years on end.

  • Reply
    Trader Jim 3 months ago

    “financial innovation is always a factor in the bubbling of asset markets.”

    Best point in the article. Even interest rates this low are considered a “financial innovation.” Listed to Mark Carney, the former BOC head. He often mentions the consequences of low interest rates haven’t been studied, because there’s never been a time in history where rates are this low.

    Considering he’s saying that England should get used to rates this low, it’s fair to assume when he dropped rates in Canada, he expected them to be low.

  • Reply
    GP 3 months ago

    I have seen close to 12 listing in Brampton listed at 499,900 and they were all sold for 10-15% high. What does this mean is people are not at all bothered about B-20 or rise in interest rate. The bidding war continues and people like me has no choice but to move out of GTA.

    • Reply
      Realtard Pro 3 months ago

      1. B-20 impacted almost none of the buyers for the past two months, because they were pre-approved before that. Almost everyone has been saying that you need to wait until at least the end of this month to see the impact.

      2. Brampton has a median sale price of $650,000. *IF* you saw 12 listings for houses at that price, then they were listed under value to trick people like you that think it’s “hot.” That’s actually a 12% decline in prices. Brampton agents do that to pad their over ask sales, like most of the turds in Toronto.

      3. Brampton is a less sophisticated market. I imagine the homeowners there are still wearing hammer pants, and listening to Vanilla Ice.

      4. You must be a new reader, because the rest of us have been watching this dumpster fire and realize that agents are pulling stuff like this.

      The last point reminds me, can you guys write something about over/under GTA pricing? Thanks!

      • Reply
        Bluetheimpala 3 months ago

        Mic drop. Shit son…nice job closing this sucka down

      • Reply
        GP 3 months ago

        Yes, I’m first time home buyer still learning all the tricks the market is playing. So far I have seen listing in Milton, Brampton, Malton, Mississauga, Toronto, Pickering & Ajax and all the listing are selling more than the listing price (10-15% high).

        Personally I have no interest in bidding war and staying out of it. I understand real estate is hot but not a stupid to buy at premium price.

        • Reply
          John 3 months ago

          In fact real estate is anything but hot right now. Look at sales-to-new-listings rations.

          Further, I micromonitor the Durham Region listings and sales. There are few listings that hit the market below value and sell within days at over asking. Almost everything sells below asking by 5 to 15 thousand.

        • Reply
          Functioning Brain 3 months ago

          See GP I feel sorry for you! I don’t think you are dumb, you stating you would not buy at premium prices is evidence of that, BUT you are the type of buyer the Re-Industry is fucking with. $499K for a house anywhere almost in ontario atm is a 3 year anomaly and that price is put in place to try to revive bidding wars to make this shit look like it still has steam, it is a dishonest tactic. If they sold for 15% over 500K they sold for $575K which is literally about 200K lower than this time last year, everything is falling apart WAIT my friend. That $500K could be anywhere from $180K-$350K in a few years when the dust settles. Don’t let them play you!

    • Reply
      Joe 3 months ago

      It’s called real estate agents listing a property well under it’s actual value in order to claim “we sold X% above asking”… yeah that’s generally what happens when you price something 25% lower than the estimated value.

      • Reply
        Justin Thyme 3 months ago

        Yes, but how about an article on it? The impact on sales? The psychological impact? The impact on exuberance? What is the data to predict its usefulness, its hazards?

        Seems to me when prices are on their way DOWN, it has the danger of leading the race to the bottom. Why, in a buyers’ market, would anyone pay MORE than asking?

        • Reply
          Bluetheimpala 3 months ago

          FOMO. Anyone with rate extension feels this is their last chance in the next 5 years to get in. Bad agents. I have a buddy who is not that well off who is trying to buy because he thinks it is a deal. I couldn’t tell him what to do other than wait and watch but don’t try to flip, live in it for 10 years. I fear he will be underwater next year.

        • Reply
          Grizzly Gus 3 months ago

          Heres an article from today about Brampton. Sales down, prices down,
          https://www.bramptonguardian.com/news-story/8325872-average-real-estate-price-in-brampton-posts-1st-monthly-year-over-year-decline-in-more-than-5-years/

          Says that the average price is $678,000. Listing at 499,000, getting multiple bids and selling for 550-575k as GP implied above doesnt sound like a hot market to me. But at its least gets your property off the market faster if you need to close. There are still buyers out there that think today is a fantastic time to buy…….. available listings can still be spun to imply that its a “balanced market”

          Look at the Real Estate section of the Globe and Mail (all free articles paid for by their sponsors of course)
          90% of the articles are about homes that sold for XXXXXX! above asking and had multiple bids. In every instance they leave out that the list price was well bellow todays expected value.

          Last RE agents are not your friend. They are sales people who make money on sales and the less work they have to put into a sale the more they make for their time. If i was an agent I would be recommending to all of my clients to list below expected value, hope for multiple bids and to get out of the market as quick as possible. (if you need to sell that is)

      • Reply
        Justin Thyme 3 months ago

        How on earth does a real estate agent convince a seller to list so far below the expected value? FOMO works both ways – sellers are now afraid of missing out on the higher prices of a few months ago. Having to admit that their house is now worth far below market just has to be a ‘hard sell’ for an RE agent. Kudos to them if they can do it, but not sure how many sellers there are that will go for it.

        You have to be really, really stupid to list for so far under. You just might be stuck at that price.

        • Reply
          Grizzly Gus 3 months ago

          If you list at 499k and thats the best offer you receive, you do not have to take it. There were tons of stories from the summer and fall of last year about sellers who did just that and then would relist.

          And I don’t know about stupid………If multiple people are doing it (GP has seen at least 10) well eventually those sales at a price of $575 k are going to set the new price for the region as a whole………. If i was someone who bought decades ago for around 100k and have started to think that my house was going to provide me a much better retirement because last year I saw prices selling for close to 750-800K. Now i see them going for 650-700K……… i might be willing to sell for a bit less before the market takes another turn for the worse

          • Justin Thyme 3 months ago

            If someone offers $499, and you make a firm, no condition acceptance for the same, they are obliged to sell. If they do not, you have a case in tort. They offered, you accepted, contract made.

            If a seller lists for $499, and you offer $499, there is no contract until the seller accepts. It is true that listing is not usually considered an offering for sale.

            But can there be a claim for false advertising?

            Is Real Estate entirely an offer to buy, and never an offer to sell? I would never trust a RE agent on this one. I would rely on a lawyer’s advice.

          • Justin Thyme 3 months ago

            Yes, it is stupid. If you have a garage sale, and someone asks ‘how much for this?’ You do not say ‘$5 or $6’. You KNOW the buyer is going to offer the $5. You have already said you would accept it.

            There is absolutely no reason to accept your property to be listed significantly under value except desperation. It is a red flag to the buyer, that you are desperate to sell. The only reason an agent would use $499k is to use it as a place holder, and hope for the best. It clearly states ‘I have no idea what it should sell for. Make an offer.’ It is a race to the bottom. It is an open invitation for the buyer to start as low as possible. It is an admission of defeat.

            Smart money always starts high.

            Letting an agent talk you into starting low is just stupid. No intelligent person barters the seller UP in price.

            ‘You want $5 for that? I will give you $10 instead.’

        • Reply
          Joshua McIntyre 3 months ago

          JT, What you are referring to is called and Invitation to Treat. In contract law, advertising your real estate for sale, and receiving an offer to purchase at your asking price, does not automatically mean you must accept and be bound by law. By advertising your price, you are inviting people to make offers, but are not bound to anything just yet. Unless you expressly state it…
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invitation_to_treat

    • Reply
      Justin Thyme 3 months ago

      Is ‘seven’ close to ‘twelve’? Is ‘twenty’ close to ‘twelve’? ‘Close to 12’ is as nonsensical a data point as one can imagine. It depends on the spread you are comparing it to. Closer than zero? Closer than 100? Closer than 11? Closer than 13? Useless, in fact.

      • Reply
        Bluetheimpala 3 months ago

        No this is observational. Your comment is nonsense and bordering on subversive. I expect more than you my Asian friend. Let’s continue to be friends.

        • Reply
          Justin Thyme 3 months ago

          Sorry, but I want something more definitive than ‘close to’. Like an exact number. As in ‘I saw 10 houses listed at …’, instead of ‘close to’. Any seller agreeing to list for so far below expected value just has to be naive. Or were all of these houses owned by the same speculator, either bailing or hoping to play the market?

          ‘Close to’ is very hard to track a trend. If it is ‘ten’ today and ‘twelve’ next month, that is an increase of 20% month over month. If it is ‘twelve’ today and ‘ten’ next month, that is a decrease of over 20%. Both numbers are ‘close to’ 12.

          • Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

            You are becoming increasingly fussy about increasingly small details. You should probably take a brake for a while. If I told you I lost “about a dozen teeth” in a hockey game, would you try to pin me down and say, Well, how many exactly? 11 teeth? 13? 12? What does “about a dozen” mean? Because that’s what your doing here.

            The original commenter was not posting “data”. Most people don’t talk and think in terms of data. He was posting an observation he made. He said “close to twelve”. Most of us would have said “about a dozen”. That small difference in wording seems to have thrown you for a loop. That’s why I’m suggesting some time away from commenting. You need to get your head straight. Chasing your tail is never productive, and it looks really silly when you do it in writing in a comments section.

          • Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

            Two grammar corrections:

            I meant ‘break’, not ‘brake, and ‘you’re’, not ‘your.

            That shouldn’t matter, but, you know, I want to avoid misleading those who tend to take things literally. 🙂

          • Bluetheimpala 3 months ago

            Ok. See you tomorrow.

          • Justin Thyme 3 months ago

            Allistair, if you said you lost about a dozen teeth in a hockey game, I would remark at how stupid you were to play hockey without using a mouth guard.

            Really, stupid starts at loosing one tooth. Loosing ‘about twelve’ only adds to the stupidity,

            People use the term ‘about x number’ to exaggerate their claim. They use the term ‘at least x number’ to support a legitimate argument. In this case, an actual confirmed number is far more useful than an unconfirmed ‘about’ number. It adds credence and legitimacy to the claim. Exaggerating isn’t useful data.

            What is more useful, would be data that indicates if it is just one agent, one RE office, or a general trend. Or maybe the same incident amplified several times.

            Are they just using the figure $499,999 as a place holder for an unknown price, since there is no real way to predict an expected price in a declining market? Is it a case of admitting that the market is so unpredictable that it is a matter of arbitrarily listing a price and hoping for the best?

      • Reply
        Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

        He could have said “about a dozen”. Does that help?

    • Reply
      Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

      They sold over asking, but at what price compared to last year? Or the April peak? That’s the key measure.

  • Reply
    professor of real estate 3 months ago

    Just sold 4 properties around Toronto over the last 2 months. Bought for 2.2M between 7 and 9 years ago. Sold for 5.3M . I make money I don’t make excuses. Still keeping 3 other properties that are strictly rental multi-units. Advertised on Kijiji for rental 2 bedroom with no photos. got 86 responses. 34 visitors. rented for 12% higher all in 4 days! From the comments I can tell nobody here has any real money and hanging on for dear life. What’s the point people. Get out there and hussle instead of bickering who is smarter. Mindset: Canadians – they follow the rules. Americans – they innovate to get around the rules. So damn happy I lived in the states for 20 years and interacted/learned with crazy aggressive capitalists. Coming back to Canada is like taking candy from a baby.

    • Reply
      Grizzly Gus 3 months ago

      So happy you didn’t learn anything from their bubble ten years ago. You holding your properties until start of this year, helped a lot of other people get out at a higher price last summer and fall. Probably could have gotten 6 million last spring.

      Home prices will fall a while before rents do. Why? because people still need somewhere to live. As more people sell their homes and choose to wait (me) or others decide to delay purchasing all together, it will create more demand for rental market. Rents are more tied to local incomes. Rents will fall when a recession kicks in and there is less demand from people moving into the city, immigrants along with increased evictions as people lose their jobs. Recession will kick in when house prices stagnate or fall for an extended period, as alot of our economy earns their living from, mortgage loans, the frequency of sales, sales price, and construction I think we are getting close

      • Reply
        professor of real estate 3 months ago

        Grizz, sad post. I buy properties in strategic areas. You criticizing a guy who just made 4M? Keep up with all your psuedo-babble analysis while we action folks make real money because we take real risks. I’m already up 3M in value on my rental properties with net $22K/month cash flow. Folks should take advice from you? Real People line-up to talk to me about real estate – which is just a side-hobby for me. Hey. I’ve made money and I’ve lost money but I have had a great run in real estate these last several years. I hope you are better than me and time the market perfectly.

        • Reply
          Grizzly Gus 3 months ago

          Feel sorry for those people who line up just to talk to you……… If they came here they could get your advice for free!

          I am actually a bit confused right now about how that HUGE brain of yours sees the market going. A few weeks back your posts were about how now is a good time to buy. If you dont take risks, no rewards, yada yada yada…… everyone who says otherwise is broke…… yada yada……

          Now it looks like you are somewhat deleveraging? Or are you going to buy more properties ? (I dont actually believe that you have a cent or property to your name FYI)

          And even if your post were true, it didn’t take a genius to make money on RE over the last decade……… Leverage yourself to the max to get in……. watch as prices go up……YAY! Everyone who owned made money. Including me….. I just got out last April instead of this January………..

          • professor of real estate 3 months ago

            Grizz, I’m out of real estate (detached homes) for the time being and concentrating on my rental properties. I am looking at opportunities with others to buy some commercial real estate. The value and rental market is exploding in commercial these days and I think it is going to skyrocket (my opinion). It is very expensive to get in but I am working with others on a commercial transaction for a plaza with office units above it. I tried to buy a gas station years ago and I regret that I stalled and someone else scooped it up. I learned my lesson. Unlike most – I actually do the research and then pull the trigger. If I make money – great. If I don’t then I sell and move on. I’ve never lost money in real estate but have lost in stocks.

          • Grizzly Gus 3 months ago

            Perfect something we can both attach our names too. I have been reading about how commercial did exceptionally well last year. It could continue to do so but I think it wall because i believe we will be in recession soon due to slow down in residential. Number of RE agents have trippled in the GTA in the last 10 years. Do any of them own homes? I expect (dont have any hard data on this) there was similar growth in RE lawyers, mortgage brokers, staging companies, appraisers, etc. Do any of them own property? I make this assumption because close to 20% of GDP comes from RE and related industries…………. Alot of these people get paid on transaction volume and price……… Volumes down close to 50% and price 5-20% depending on how you look at it. If any of these people have debts and are seeing a slowdown in their earnings do you think they will continue to consume other things at the same rate? Do higher rates hurt asset classes dependent on debt financing? Is commercial real estate financed with debt?

            I am hoping you can explain some of this to me to help me understand how I can be smart like you

          • professor of real estate 3 months ago

            I hear you. I think I got side tracked with residential RE and missed the play in commercial. I think it may be too late (expensive) for commercial – at least for me. I try to buy in strategic locations but there is not a lot of inventory out there in my range. It is funny but the plaza we are trying to buy is because the owner made too big a play as a developer in townhomes recently. He is leveraged up and we may get a very good deal on the property. Who knows. maybe the economy tanks and the plaza sits empty for years or it does not affect as the tenants are very good and it is in a great location. May be i should just invest in qualcomm as the US government made it a monopoly in the US. I don’t know man I got to figure it out and deal with the consequences of my investments.

        • Reply
          Alex 3 months ago

          $5.3 Million minus $2.2 million is $3.1 million.

          • professor of real estate 3 months ago

            Dude. I paid down the mortgages over the years. That is why it is 4M

          • Alex 3 months ago

            Then it would be even less than $3 million, considering the interest you paid over the years. You overestimate your profits by over a million. Would be hard to do if they were real.

          • professor of real estate 3 months ago

            Alex. I had them rented out. which covered the mortgage, tax and insurance. The number I gave was a straight equity play.

          • Alex 3 months ago

            When the spring break is over, ask your teacher to go over arithmetic with you again. When you buy something for $2.2 million and sell it for $5.3 million, your profit in “straight equity pay” is $3.1 million. Receiving rent for those properties over the years would not result in you “just having made” $4 million.
            Oh wait, you are a multi-millionaire chair professor of stem cell biology recruited by the Canadian government. You should know your arithmetic.

          • professor of real estate 3 months ago

            I put down 20%. my total mortgages were less than $600K on the properties after paying them down over 7-9 years when I sold them. I broke even or even made a little on the rent.. I made money what’s the big deal. why don’t you go out there and make some money too.

          • Alex 3 months ago

            It still doesn’t come even close to $4 million. If you made real profits, you would know the amount you made down to a penny and would not overstate them by a million.
            I am making money right now. This is just amusing.

          • professor of real estate 3 months ago

            Alex. Give us a snap shot of how you are making money in RE. I don’t know a single investor like myself who knows down to the penny how much money they made on multiple transactions. The folks I know make big money and round off in the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousandths when discussing deals and profits. We usually talk in percentages actually. Some advice: The guys who know how much money they make down to the dollar are the guys who made tiny profits or make money in stocks not RE.

        • Reply
          C 3 months ago

          Really. You made a cool 4 mill just to come and post on a blog about how rich you are….
          Highly doubtful. I would presume with your millions you should have much more important things to do with your time.

          It sounds more like youre a real estate agent with no buyers…..so to kill some time you post on this site hoping to draw in suckers…!!

          • professor of real estate 3 months ago

            Got you sucker!

          • Dennis 3 months ago

            Will the professor be at the REAL ESTATE AND WEALTH EXPO April 7th? I just got VIP tickets for 85% off on the site.

            I love Pitbull, from illegal immigrant to illegal immigrant with money, until he gets thrown back over the wall where is money will not matter. Oh well.

      • Reply
        Tommy 3 months ago

        When was the last time rents declined? They’ve been on a steady upward trend for 18 years. https://www.torontorentals.com/blog/average-rent-in-toronto-since-2000

        If rent is tied to inflation and local incomes, I suspect it will continue to climb at the rate of inflation. Just as every item you buy gets more expensive every year, seemingly regardless of what’s happening in the greater economy, so to will rent in Toronto.

        Rental demand can ebb and flow but even if vacancy rates doubled or tripled I wouldn’t expect substantial downward pressure on rental prices in the city.

    • Reply
      Mmr 3 months ago

      Best comment so far about most people in this forum. I have been reading what they wrote here for last two weeks and I can tell majority of them are exactly what you just commented. It’s brutal but truth.

      • Reply
        Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

        So you come here why exactly? What have we done to deserve the great honour of having you bless us with your holy presence? Since we’re all a bunch of penniless losers. Certainly you have better people to converse with?

        • Reply
          Mmr 3 months ago

          Same to you my friend. You seems not happy with cost of living in Toronto then why live there and complain about it. Just move to a nicer city and be happy 🙂.

    • Reply
      Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

      Pity you didn’t stay in the US a few years longer. You’d have learned the downside of a housing bubble. You’ll get your medicine yet. Or rather, you would get your medicine if you were telling the truth to begin with. Which you’re not.

      If you were half as wealthy as you say you are, you’d have neither the time nor the inclination to show up here and brag about it. Your kind shows up sooner or later in every discussion online about housing markets. You are an unemployed fraud living out his tycoon fantasies in the comments section of an obscure housing blog. Now get out there and hustle before your EI runs out.

      • Reply
        professor of real estate 3 months ago

        Alistair. Why so bitter? Unlike everyone on this site I was recruited back to Canada. The Canadian government thinks I am pretty good and that’s why they ponied up and brought me back as a chair professor. I studied in the states and was a professor there. I research stem cell biology. I tell my grad students and postdocs the same thing as I say on this site – too much analysis leads to paralysis – sometimes you just got to do the experiment.

        • Reply
          Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

          You needn’t have added the stem cell part. We knew you were full of $hit when you pretended to be a successful real estate investor. Instead you doubled down and combined the two most mutually exclusive personality types in existence (scholarly scientist + gun-slinging capitalist) into a single caricature and expected us to buy it.

          Pop quiz for the professor:

          Question: In the history of the Internet, how many genuine self-made multi-millionaires have felt compelled to seek validation from a bunch of skeptical and anonymous blog commenters?

          Answer: 0

          Stem cell biologist and aggressive capitalist all rolled into one. I bet your Ph D is hanging on the wall between your Olympic medal and your Nobel Prize for Literature, just above the Purple Heart, but below the Order of Canada citation.

          • professor of real estate 3 months ago

            wow. you are just angry. FYI. I have been nominated for the royal society of Canada and the order of Ontario. When I get in I’ll let you know. You make me laugh. I keep winning because I try and you keep losing because you complain. BTW Most top science profs have start-ups and are much more capitalist than you think. We know more private equity and VC guys even though Canada sucks ass on VC. I’m not in the liberal arts, I am in the hard sciences. You just don’t get it. FYI. I’m a pretty good prof – the reality is most people kiss my ass everyday and all day. That is just the respect I’ve earned. I’ve even been on TV a couple of times to discuss my research. I really never get challenged – this website is just funny to me as are the commenters. I don’t need validation from this website.

    • Reply
      Roger Troutman 3 months ago

      Amazing observation about the commenters here. It’s actually really sad because the negativity seems to be so entrenched in some peoples brains and even our society, but like a car accident it’s hard to look away.

      • Reply
        Mmr 3 months ago

        This forum is mostly negative news. Only focus all the bad news with our country and when our people will suffer from economic crash. And then brag about it that “I told you so”!

        • Reply
          carlton 3 months ago

          This forum is focused on Current Real Estate news.

          There is mostly negative news out of Canada as of late if you haven’t noticed. Equifax, BIS, S&P, BNN, Bloomberg, Moodys, all 5 major banks have warned of a downturn. we come here to discuss and comment on the current events in real estate and the economy.

          I know, it bothers you, how can this be? the papers that post positive real estate news said it would always go up…..
          unfortunately we are not here to comfort people who made bad purchases. I am sure there is articles from realtors that will make you feel better, just go some where else and you’ll probably feel better… even though its fantasy…

          Here is one only 6 days old enjoy, and feel better, good luck!

          http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2018/03/5-ontario-cities-poised-huge-housing-boom-next-years.html

          • Mmr 3 months ago

            . At least I will not brag and celebrate bad news. I do get anger frustration over high prices. Like any other society we are also divided. Those who benefited and those who suffering from this mess.

          • carlton 3 months ago

            To be honest it feels as if most people commenting are investors in waiting, not over leveraged home owners.

          • Mmr 3 months ago

            Yes people here are very savvy investors and that’s why they all missed invest in real estate 5 or 10 years ago when prices were one third and now waiting economy to crash . I am sure next year house in annex will be 100k 🙂. make sure you have 100k though savvy investor lol.

          • Grizzly Gus 3 months ago

            I think there are two groups of people when it comes negative views on high house prices.

            There are those that “complain” about them. Probably see the market the same way you do…. think prices can only go up and up and up. Feel bad for themselves that they didn’t get in when they could have, didnt get in sooner or think they will never be able to own a home.

            Then there are those that WARN about home prices. Those are people that think prices long overshot fundamentals and that a brutal crash is coming.

            The former group doesnt have the money, or else they would be getting into the market. The latter group may or may not have the money to buy (they would not even if they did), and may or may not have made money on the way up. Buy low sell high right? Or is it buy high and sell higher?

          • carlton 3 months ago

            Mmr I feel the same way you do:
            “I do get anger frustration over high prices.”

            I bought in 07 for 327k, original owner paid 227k in 06. I thought that was crazy, its now worth 719k . I now owe 23 months or 56k. The only thing I’ve missed out on is overpriced housing.
            Your right, I have a 100 or more to invest (non heloc), Thats why I come here to see how its going. I love better Dwelling and the commentators, its a classroom most of the time.

            To be honest after reading some of these articles I break out Dancing, I can hardly wait. What were these people thinking? how are you going to pay that mortgage off? some people who bought in the 90s still have a mortgage of over 200k. Most mortgage issued in last 5 years will never be paid off.
            listen ….. don’t stress just hold and pray.
            Read the article I posted you’ll feel better. Don’t jump!

            http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2018/03/5-ontario-cities-poised-huge-housing-boom-next-years.html

          • Mmr 3 months ago

            Carlton no need to brag. I bought two in Toronto in 2009 and it’s up by 200 percent now. Don’t worry about people paying mortgage as long as you pay yours and not homeless any time soon you should be happy. I doubt that thought.

          • Mmr 3 months ago

            Don’t worry about people paying mortgage as long as you pay yours and not homeless any time soon you should be happy. I doubt that thought.

        • Reply
          Sammy 3 months ago

          Were you complaining about the 30 years of positive news before this year?

          Live in a bubble, but understand that your labour is being devalued so you can convince yourself that you’re a millionaire… who probably can’t afford the taxes on their “investment.”

      • Reply
        Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

        Too true Roger. The housing debacle is going to be like a massive car wreck over the next few years – really sad, but hard to look away from.

        (Yah, I know that’s not how you meant it. 🙂 )

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 3 months ago

      Lol…this is so played out. You’ve been doing this shtick for so long it is ancient. And for what? I always laugh when the Prof drops some knowledge… Sounds like the guy who used to sell weed in high school talking about ‘making duckets’ and ‘getting dollars’, watch scarface every weekend… Lol.

    • Reply
      Justin Thyme 3 months ago

      If you are worth that much, why are you hanging around here? Methinks something is missing in the equation.

  • Reply
    Functioning Brain 3 months ago

    Prob shouldn’t but…

    It would appear there is literally no Chair of Biology with a research focus on stem cells anywhere in Canada or the USA atm who has been nominated for the Order or Canada, and who received a degree in Chicago, who taught at any university in Chicago and who grew up in the GTA.

    There are literally only a few handful of Chairs of Biology in all of North America and literally NONE of them fit this profile.

    Shocking!

  • Reply
    Functioning Brain 3 months ago

    Side-side note before I skulk away you can easily obtain this information because they ALL have full bios up on their University website profiles….

  • Reply
    Functioning Brain 3 months ago

    Here are all the Chairs in Ontario who deal with stem cell research

    http://www.chairs-chaires.gc.ca/chairholders-titulaires/index-eng.aspx

    Not ONE fits that profile.

    • Reply
      Alistair McLaughlin 3 months ago

      Professor of Real Estate is unavailable for comment. While he was wasting time here yesterday arguing with us plebs, 100s of people lined up outside his office to kiss his ass. (This is what happens every single day – he said so himself.) Needless to say, they camped out overnight. He is now generously giving each one of them a moment of his time, soaking up the immense respect and admiration owed to a man of his stature. This afternoon he’s leaving the office early for a fox hunt. Then it’s roast quail for dinner at the country club, followed by cigars and brandy by the fireplace. He can’t stay out too late however. He has a polo match first thing tomorrow morning.

  • Reply
    Loomis 3 months ago

    It’s obvious that Professor of Real Estate is a sad case of someone who seeks validation online by pretending to be what he could never aspire to in real life. He is neither clever or original, and his lies are a familiar refrain. I once outed a poster who claimed on his Youtube channel that he was “Retired at 31” and was a distinguished psychological researcher who lectured to PhD’s in his spare time. It turns out he was a career shelf stocker who had a BA in Psych. The guy used to refer to anyone who disagreed with him as “dirty faced plebes.” It was fun to humiliate him once the truth came out, he banned me from his page as a result.

    For The Professor of Real Estate to go so far as to claim he was nominated for the Royal Society of Canada and The Order of Ontario, it just shows what a pathetic creature he is. He doesn’t realize that his claims can easily be verified. I suspect he has a BA in Biology, hence the claim to be a renowned stem cell researcher. His kind usually takes a small grain of truth and builds upon it with several layers of lies and embellishment. No one who is comfortable in their own skin feels the need to go online and claim that “most people kiss my ass every day and all day.” It’s a futile attempt at inferring that he has the respect that he lacks and so craves in the real world. His reasoning for claiming to be a swaggering millionaire real estate capitalist is likely because he’s trying to eke out a living in the now faltering GTA RE market. Any suggestion that the housing market is in decline causes him to lash out.

    • Reply
      Functioning Brain 3 months ago

      I think he is under 24 lives in the west burbs with his parents and is in University atm hoping this will be his life and has family in the US who is doing better than his own middle to upper middle family here that he has visited and feels invested in in Chicago.

  • Reply
    Knotmi Reelnm 3 months ago

    With respect to foreign buyer’s tax, can an argument be made to keep or raise it and remove loopholes, while still permitting FDI into residential development or purpose-built ownership, just not individual residential real estate? The argument would be intended to show the effect on job creation is unaffected, but housing prices will decrease.

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