Top Stories

This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Real Estate Didn’t Make A “Soft Landing,” and Credit Growth Problems Surface Across The Country

Time for your weekly cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories.

Canadian Real Estate

Canada’s Largest Real Estate Developer Declared A Soft Landing. They’re Wrong
Canada’s largest real estate developer has declared the country has officially made a soft landing. There’s just a few problems with that. First, it’s way too early to call, considering the median correction took 7 years to play out. Second, not one of the indicators required to declare a soft landing has stabilized. Here’s the data behind our lack of soft landing, showing it’s way too early to call… even if the guy who wants to sell you the most homes say it happened.
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Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Falls To One Of The Lowest Levels In History
Canadian mortgage credit growth fell to one of the lowest levels in history, and it could get a lot worse. The balance of outstanding mortgage credit reached $1.53 trillion in October, up 3.2% from last year. Over the past 30 years, the rate of growth has only fallen below this level, in 2001 for just two months. Worth remember that in 2001, rates were 80% higher than they are today. That means growth was much harder to do back in the day, and we’re still falling to that level.
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Canadian Household Debt Growth Has Never Fallen This Low Outside Of Recession
Think the mortgage stress test is the reason things are slowing down? It really isn’t. The annual growth rate of household debt, including consumer debt, fell to just 3.5%. The decline is so low, we last saw it this low in 1982. That’s right, we’ve never seen a number this low outside of a recession.
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Canada’s Money Supply Points To An Economic Slowdown Around The Corner
Canada’s M1+, a narrow measure of the money supply, growth is slowing down dramatically. The M1+ annual pace of growth fell to 4.2%, down 46.83% from the same time last year. We’re now significantly below the median pace of growth as well. The M1+ is often used to gauge the future level of productivity in the economy, and it’s not looking bullish. For the near term at least.
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Toronto Real Estate

Toronto Real Estate Sees Fewest November Sales In 6 Years
Toronto real estate prices are just above inflation, with sales at multi-year lows. The price of a typical home reached $764,600 in November, up 2.73% from the same month last year. There were 6,251v sales, down 15.22% compared to the same month last year. Considering CPI just came in at 2.4%, and that’s the fewest November sales since 2012, it wasn’t all that good of a report.
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Vancouver Real Estate

Greater Vancouver Real Estate Prices Go Negative For The First Time Since 2013
Greater Vancouver real estate has officially turned upside down. The price of a typical home fell to $1,042,100 in November, down 1.4% from the same month last year. Prices have been down in the City of Vancouver for a few months now, so that’s huge news. The big news is this is the first time the whole region has seen negative annual growth since 2013.
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