Toronto

Toronto Real Estate Sees Fewest November Sales In 6 Years

Toronto real estate buyers may be paying slightly more than last year, but there’s a lot less of them. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show November at a multi-year low for sales. Toronto’s sales low came with higher than average inventory, but prices still moved higher due to a condo apartments.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Rise Nearly 3%

The price of a typical home fell month-over-month, but is still higher than last year. TREB reported the price of a typical home hit $763,600 in November, up 2.73% compared to the same month last year. The City of Toronto benchmark hit $844,600, up 6.72% from last year. The vast majority of gains were due to a rise in condo apartments.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price

The price of a “typical” composite home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Bother the city and the suburbs experienced price growth acceleration. The 2.73% annual gain in TREB is higher than last  month, but prices are still 6.46% lower than last year. National Bank of Canada noted last month that due to the sharp drop last year, this year’s seasonal gain looks large. However, it’s just not falling as quickly, printing a small gain. We know, your agent said the benchmark decline is seasonal. Feel free to ask them if they know the benchmark is already seasonally adjusted.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price Change

The annual percent change of TREB’s benchmark price for all home types.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Median Sale Price Rises Over 4%

The median sale price for Toronto real estate climbed as well. TREB reported a median sale price of $670,000 in November, up 4.68% from last year. The City of Toronto represented an increase of 6.34% from last year. The rise was due to sales of higher priced segments declining faster. Detached and townhome units experienced a larger drop than relatively “cheaper” condo apartments.

Toronto Real Estate Average Sale Price Rises Over 3%

The average sale price across Greater Toronto increased. TREB reported an average sale price of $788,345 in November, up 3.49% from last year. The City of Toronto hit $842,483 in November, up 5.01% from last year. Like the median, the increase was due to the segment shift, and a rise in the condo price floor.

Greater Toronto Average Sale Price Change

The annual percent change of the average sale price of all homes.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Sales Fall To Lowest Level In 6 Years

Sale of real estate fell across Greater Toronto, actually hitting a multi-year low. TREB reported 6,251 sales in November, down 15.22% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,563 of those sales, down 13.93% from last year. Remember, last November experienced a “rush” to buy ahead of new mortgage rules. Additionally, it was the fewest number of homes sold in November since 2012.

Greater Toronto Sales To New Listings

The number newly listed units per month, in contrast to sales.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Inventory Falls Over 9%

The number of new listings for home fell across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 10,534 new listings in November, down 26.58% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 3,892 of those new listings, down 20.26% from last year. Last year’s rush to buy a house was also met with a rush to sell homes, so this was largely expected.

Predictably, the number of active listings fell across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 16,420 active listings in November, down 9.76% from last year. The City of Toronto reported 4,949 of those listings, down 8.91% from last year. The number is still 4.7% higher than the 10 year median trend, and the third highest November in the past 10 years.

Greater Toronto Active Listings

The number of listings available for sale in May 2018, across Greater Toronto.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Following a period of boom, it’s kind of hard to get a good read on where the market is heading. Prices are higher than last year, but they continue to drop from peak. The trend of lower than normal sales and higher than average inventory isn’t a positive. Most likely we won’t get a major move in either direction until we see an economic boom or bust.

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34 Comments

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  • Reply
    KMoney 2 weeks ago

    Now why did some news channels choose to go with prices are up 2% (the rate of inflation), instead of sales are at a 6 year low for November? Hmmm…

    • Reply
      Michael Benoit 2 weeks ago

      Because they regurgitate the what the boards tell them. It’s rising like inflation, much impressive no? 😂

  • Reply
    Nikita 2 weeks ago

    I don’t understand what the big deal is about home prices. If you can’t afford it, just save until you can afford a house. There’s no point in complaining, it doesn’t get you a house any faster.

    • Reply
      Ian Schwartz 2 weeks ago

      The problem is people like you are giving terrible advice, trying to ruin the financial independence of a generation by training people to have no retirement cash like you Boomers.

      Here’s a financial professional’s actual explanation on non-recoverable housing costs in Toronto, and how it’s a terrible idea to own basically all of the time.

      http://findependencehub.com/is-renting-throwing-away-money/

      • Reply
        j 2 weeks ago

        ez solution.. rent for life…

        • Reply
          paco 1 week ago

          you are also renting until you pay your mortgage until last cent. try to default in your payments and you will see how costly was your rent for that house

    • Reply
      Trevor Hare 2 weeks ago

      It’s not that people are complaining about prices in particular, it’s that inflated real estate prices can crash the whole economy and ruin people’s finances.

      • Reply
        JJ 2 weeks ago

        This.

        Would I like to own a house? Yes (for lifestyle reasons, not financial).

        Am I complaining that I don’t? No.

        I can afford to buy but the reason I don’t is because I don’t want to get dragged down by 25 years of debt for an overpriced asset. Money spent servicing that debt could actually be spent consuming the things that make life wonderful and growing the economy in a meaningful way. Instead, my friends will be watching netflix at home and eating KD for the next 10 years… I mean I guess that doesn’t sound too horrible 😛

    • Reply
      someguy 2 weeks ago

      I struggle to comprehend how anyone would think this is a reasonable viewpoint, let alone post it out there for the world to see.

  • Reply
    Ethan Wu 2 weeks ago

    For the kiddies that drank the Kool-aid this morning, and still don’t see the trend.

    i.imgur.com/25Go1QWl.png

    • Reply
      vnm 2 weeks ago

      Chart looks exactly like a classic bubble peak, with dead cat bounce.

      The article is probably right in suggesting “we won’t get a major move in either direction until we see an economic boom or bust”.

      Although the definition of a “bust” is subjective … if you measure things based on the cost of living, with 95% of Torontonians unable to afford the the smallest, cheapest one-bedroom condo, that’s a market bust by any other name.

      Even in this environment of unfettered greed and delusion, the pyramid scheme is starting to self-destruct at a time when employment and the economy is still seemingly booming. That’s really scary.

  • Reply
    Im Therious 2 weeks ago

    For the last two graphs that are cyclical on a yearly basis, would it not be better to plot with:
    – x-axis as months
    – y-axis as years

  • Reply
    Asterix1 2 weeks ago

    Benchmark pricing is not the best (its completely RE controlled segment). Rather see Medium and Average price chart.

    Even then, these numbers come directly from RE industry, they mess the numbers up with their “seasonally adjusted” garbage. I highly doubt prices really went up 2-3%.

    Those mortgage pimps (aka: bank economists) who keep saying that prices have stabilized or a soft landed in GTA is incurring, should truly keep quiet. Yet the opposite happens, they are called “experts” and the Media industry keeps printing their lies for $.

  • Reply
    Bluetheimpala 2 weeks ago

    It will be interesting to see how the next 6 months play out with the stock market and corporate bonds potentially going kray kray. I’m surprised by the capitulation in house and that there is still so much money available. Inventory up one month, then down; same with sales and pricing. I don’t believe the fundamentals changed (full disclosure: I sold a 1+ year ago and bought in the past month, below list but still gonna feel the pain) but the looming ‘mass boomer extinction’ may be creating a support level for the current market which is not sustainable but worrying…instead of 10 year subset of a generation getting fleeced, continuing these inflated prices for another 5-10 years means a swath of us will be debt slaves. Wages seem to be somewhat strong in core urban and suburban markets but savings rates are in the toilet putting pressure on credit…I still believe further price reduction of 20-30% is still the reality with Vancouver straight up burning to the ground…i was just looking at a shit hold in richmond hill listed for $1.049M and it is a complete un-updated dump with blue carpets, yuck…shits weird. people are weird. Tick tock. BD4L.

    • Reply
      SCE 2 weeks ago

      You’ve been saying it will be interesting to see how things turn out in 6 months at least 12 months ago. Want a longer time frame?

      • Reply
        vnm 2 weeks ago

        Maybe force yourself to really look at the charts, if you don’t think the decline has started you are truly delusional.

      • Reply
        Bluetheimpala 2 weeks ago

        I’ve always mentioned a Q4 2018 being the beginning with some sort of recessionary event in 2019 tied to a debt squeeze. Could be Q1 2019. 1-2 years after peak, depending on when that is determined but it was approx April 2017, give or take. While everyone here would love to think Xelan, Grizz, Blue, Vnm and the rest of us losers can predict major economic events I can assure you, and I can only speak for myself, I would NOT be on this blog if I had this godly ability. I’d be off with Richy and Billy doing some crazy shit with our billions like hippo racing, cloning dinosaurs or making hamster pants ‘a thing’. Tick tock. BD4L.

    • Reply
      SCE 2 weeks ago

      Why would you buy a place if you think there is 20 to 30% downside? Scared of missing the rally??!?? LOL

      • Reply
        Bluetheimpala 2 weeks ago

        uggg…rally? You don’t get it. You seem like someone between 25-35 who made some duckets off of bitcoin and NVIDIA and think they’re a genius. Could be another trust fund baby who thinks they know better. Maybe some sort of an alpha male, zero sum guy who knows ‘how to get dollars’ and makes everyone around you know it. Maybe you made a bad decision and bought a condo a year ago. The fact that you refer to it as a rally suggests a)your lexicon is incorrect or you misunderstand how the term is used b)you view RE like a stock which reinfoces the age range I believe you fall into because that’s all you know c)there isn’t really a c) but ending after b) looks weird. Like periods in advertising headlines, yuck. I can assure you, I don’t need any convincing on where and how I invest…it seems like you’re looking for some reassurance. Didn’t you sell and buy two condos? Or was that LL? Come give blue a hug. Tick tock. BD4L.

        • Reply
          SCE 2 weeks ago

          You don’t get it. You come in here thinking you’re hot shit, some Nostradamus. Telling people they are idiots for not thinking a housing crash is imminent. You go on about a housing crash in the near future (that near future lees resetting every 6 months). Admit to selling your place a year ago, and repurchasing last month. Have no idea what you bought, but it was the same type of home, you basically lost agent fees for selling and paid a higher. If what you sold and repurchased was a 1+ condo, then you lost a lot of money.

          So anyways, I’m done with this biased site. You were the only guy I was after. Stop spewing your garbage about a 20% to 30% crash when you just bought a place. Either you are an idiot for buying when you could get something that much cheaper in 6 months or you are finally admitting you are wrong. Which on is it?

          TICK TOCK. BD4L!!!!!!

          SCE out…. though if there are more idiots who need to be called out, I will be back!

  • Reply
    SUMSKILLZ 2 weeks ago

    From a psychology perspective, personally speaking, I get more alarmed by charts that show “stuff aint sell’n” than “prices are down X-percent.”

    I guess if I can’t sell, if I wanted to, I’d really just be a feudal serf bound to a specific land, and that would be a terrible turn of events in what I thought was the land of freedom.

  • Reply
    SCE 2 weeks ago

    LOL. Stable to higher prices, lower inventory, dovish BOC. Shiver me timbers!

    Don’t want to say it, but told you so. Keep hanging out to those long term forecasts! We’ll go down some day.

    Tick Tock. BD4L!

    • Reply
      JJ 2 weeks ago

      I think the big questions are why is inventory low, and if its low, why aren’t we printing larger gains?

      My guess is inventory is low because people are waiting for prices to rise, and prices aren’t rising because demand is limited at the current levels. Curious to see what happens when inventory makes its seasonal bounce in April.

      • Reply
        @xelan_gta 2 weeks ago

        Actually 2.5 months in the average inventory for TO for the last 10 years.
        So for TO it’s “normal” inventory now.

    • Reply
      SMH 2 weeks ago

      “Stable to higher prices, lower inventory, dovish BOC” Seriously SCE, if you can’t see the writings on the wall yet you’re a real estate troll, developer troll, mortgage broker troll, an average Joe who bought 5 properties with your HELOC as a down payment,take your pick.

      There’s no other explanation for you to be so blind and committed, I mean do you even believe the lies you tell? You must be typing in between your bouts of tears. In the face of everything that’s happening to continue to prattle on and on is such nonsense, you must have a lot of skin the game otherwise why would you care to pursue these outrageously and obviously unsubstantial views. You won’t even consider these warning signs, you’re full steam ahead! Or at least you pretend to be…

      Continuing to poke the bears won’t save you from bankruptcy honey. Good luck.

    • Reply
      Professional Landlord 2 weeks ago

      How delusional do you have to be to things are looking good when the rate of appreciation falls below the typical mortgage rate? 🤦‍♂️

  • Reply
    DB 2 weeks ago

    Thanks Ian Schwartz for the link it was a good read and one worth saving for future reading… A recommended read..not that I would agree entirely to a lifetime of no home ownership; if you can make it happen without suffering financially and its a great time to buy go for it. We all have to live somewhere and depending on the size of your family or families with grandparents who might be living there with you, it might be the best decision of your lives.
    But be careful when you buy there is a long way to go before this roller coaster ride hits bottom.

  • Reply
    @xelan_gta 2 weeks ago

    For those who haven’t seen yet here are the Maclean’s charts for 2019.
    Some data like corporate sector debts reliance on RE or US stocks exposure are quite scary.
    https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-most-important-charts-to-watch-in-2019/
    Many factors are pointing to a recession and not just a regular one but “once-in-a-generation recession.” (Stephen Punwasi)
    You’ve been warned.

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 2 weeks ago

      yuppers. I’ve taken to eating squirrels. Tastes like rabbit. Tick tock. BD4L.

  • Reply
    Gear74 2 weeks ago

    Oh Blue Bear I am in shock! You actually purchased a house recently? As SCE was asking you – something is not right here : you are telling everyone on this site that shit is gonna hit the fan soon and all of us investors would cry crocodile tears from making bad decisions and then you go and buy? Doesn’t make sense. Isn’t it we are heading for total collapse from your words? This is hilarious! 🙂 Tick Tock!

  • Reply
    DB 2 weeks ago

    Did you know blue impala’s are going to be a thing of the past. Yep they no longer will make those in 2019. The model has become old and outdated and people just are not buying them anymore.

    • Reply
      vnm 1 week ago

      omg, that is so lame and lacking in wit it’s positively embarrassing.

  • Reply
    DB 1 week ago

    omg your right it was lame….it took all of a couple of seconds to wright so no wit involved here. As for embarrassing…you obviously have no clue who I am and to what depths I am capable of descending.. not quite as low as some on here though..I’ve been reading this forum for many months now and when I read that this guy eats garbage for breakfast I realized from the crap flowing from his mouth he eats more than garbage…take a hint eat a mint or two because your mouth is full of $#I7 .
    I initially thought this guy knew what he was talking about and I’m sure he does know a little.. I enjoyed his opinions and looked forward to more but now I only see how toxic he’s become..and how less enjoyable I find this site. In the spirit of respectful relations which I’m sure everyone including this forum can appreciate…he is not.

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