Canadians are packing up and leaving for good, and high home prices may be a major contributor. Last week we discussed Statistics Canada’s (Stat Can) emigration data showing 2025 saw one of the biggest Q1 outflows on record. Breaking that data down by province reveals the largest source of emigrants is Ontario. Combined with BC, the country’s two most expensive provinces are the source of more than 2 in 3 emigrants leaving Canada for good.
Canadians Are Leaving Permanently In Record Volumes
Emigration is when a citizen or permanent resident leaves the country for good, and Canada is seeing it scale up fast. As mentioned last week, Canada’s outflow hit 27.1k emigrants in Q1 2025, up 3% from last year. It was the second-largest Q1 outflow on record, only behind 2017. There’s been a distinct trend of emigration outflows rising since 2017, and the problem is only getting worse.
We won’t recap why emigration data is an important sentiment indicator. However, it’s worth mentioning that emigration requires notifying policymakers of the intention to permanently relocate outside of Canada. It’s probably fair to say a large volume of people are unaware they were supposed to declare their absence, and the government is just assuming they went on a long vacation.
This is the same problem that resulted in Canada significantly overestimating its population for roughly 40 years. But I digress, back to the provincial emigration data.
Most Canadians Leaving For Good Are From Ontario
Canadian Emigration By Province: The number of citizens or permanent residents in each province who relocated outside of Canada in Q1 2025.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
Virtually all provinces have seen emigration outflows rise, but most came from Ontario. The province represented 50.8% of total emigration in Q1 2025—similar to last year, but a share roughly 5 points higher than observed in the 2010s. Ontario represents 38.8% of Canada’s population but 50.8% of emigration, indicating it’s overrepresented for outflows by 12 percentage points. This should be a major concern for local policymakers.
Ontario saw 13.6k emigrants in the quarter, up 3.0% from last year. It was the largest Q1 outflow on record. The province’s inability to retain talent is only compounded by the interprovincial outflows.
Canadians Are Leaving In Record Volumes: 70% Are From BC and Ontario
Canadian Emigration: Ontario and BC emigrants in the first quarter.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
A distant second is British Columbia (BC), representing 1 in 5 (20.4%) emigrants last quarter. The province’s 5.5k emigrants in Q1 2025 was 3.0% higher than last year. BC’s Q1 outflow is the second-largest in history, only behind 2017.
Over 1 In 5 Leaving Canada Are From Alberta and Quebec
Alberta was the third-largest source of emigrants, representing 12.1% of the national outflow. The province saw 3.3k people leave the country for good in Q1 2025, up 3.1% from the previous year. This was the third-largest Q1 outflow on record, with 2018 and 2022 being slightly larger. The share is similar to its share of the total population, so it doesn’t stand out as an issue.
With Canada’s youngest population, Alberta sees higher mobility among young adults—who are also the most likely to move for opportunity. At the same time, Alberta is the only province attracting young adults from other regions. The province is at the center of a complex demographic shift, which needs a further dive later.
Quebec’s share of emigration (10.2%) was the fourth-largest and growing. The province saw 3.3k emigrants in Q1 2025, an increase of 3.0% from last year. It was also the fourth-largest Q1 since the 80s, only surpassed by 2017, 2018, and 2022. Substantial growth but still nothing quite like the province’s outflows pre-1980. It’s also underrepresented, since Quebec’s total population represents 22% of the country’s population but only 10.2% of the emigration.
The Prairies Are Losing Canadians, But Mostly Alberta
Canada’s Prairie provinces represented 16.6% of emigration, but just 4.5% when Alberta is excluded. Manitoba represented 748 emigrants in Q1 2025, up 3.0% from last year. Saskatchewan represented 467 emigrants, up 2.9% over the same period. Until the steady uptick in recent months, both provinces hadn’t seen significant outflows since the 1960s. The most recent Q1 outflows were Manitoba’s second-largest since then, and Saskatchewan’s largest.
More Atlantic Canadians Are Leaving But It’s A Tiny Demographic
Atlantic Canada might be the only region happy (for now)—it collectively represented just 2.4% of emigration. Nova Scotia, which accounted for 51% of the region’s total, was the source of 333 emigrants in Q1 2025, up 2.5% from last year. Like most of Atlantic Canada, the region hadn’t seen significant emigration since the 1980s. However, Nova Scotia just saw the second-largest Q1 outflow since then—only 2018 was larger.
Collectively, the remaining provinces in Atlantic Canada barely register at the national scale—but may serve as a warning shot for local policymakers. New Brunswick saw 3.1% annual growth to 201 emigrants in Q1 2025, while PEI reported 4.1% growth to 51 emigrants over the same period. Nothing like pre-1980s emigration in these provinces, but it was the second-largest Q1 outflow for both provinces since then.
Last but not least was Newfoundland, whose emigration is growing faster than the national average but remains insignificant. The province saw just 60 emigrants in Q1 2025, an increase of 3.5% from last year. Newfoundland is home to 1.5% of Canada’s total population, but represents just 0.2% of its emigrants. Though with Canada’s oldest median-aged population, the vast majority of households are likely more established and less vulnerable to short-term economic shocks.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Likely A Major Contributor To Those Leaving For Good
There are various reasons that people leave the country, but the origin of emigrants suggests real estate plays a role. It’s not a coincidence that 70% of Canada’s emigrants came from two provinces—Ontario and BC. High-skill, young adults are most likely to leave as the combination of in-demand talent makes it easier to move, while the cost of living is motivating. These two provinces are also the only ones seeing its total population shrink, and are also the largest source of interprovincial migration—those relocating to another province.
The emigration surge may also explain the sudden lack of homebuying in both BC and Ontario. If consumers are being told that prices will never come down and they have to get used to small homes, many will just move. For many, moving to another province is a similar amount of effort as moving to a new country.
What a crock of horse manure, For every 3 canadians leaving ,10 are arriving.
Found the person that didn’t read the linked article on why emigration is important.
For those who are equally research challenged, the issue for the economy is you can trick a person from the developing world to pile into Canada but you can’t trick a person who’s familiar with it right now into staying.
Replacing a doctor or a high skill banker isn’t the same as gaining 10 students. Eventually those students, once trained, will also leave.
The fact that people are leaving is clearly because while prices have risen 40-50% since 2014, wages in usd are pretty much the same as it was.
The big prpblem is most countries in the west are equally impaired, except the usa.
An interesting aside us most of the people leaving alberta are getting jobs in the oil and gas sector in the usa. So not only has the liberals foolish attempt to force green on us not helped anyone other than themselves, it is costing us our most valuable resources – young professionals. A doctor might be someone to keep, losing an entire generation of energy professionals is worse. If we lose our energy expertise, we will literall have nothing of value left.
They aren’t all going to the states. Many have accrued so much house wealth, especially in Ontario and BC, that they can sell, retire and live extremely well in many other countries, I highly doubt much of the exodus is to get a job in the US.
It would be better to see the stat by age and economic geographic. A lot of middle class Canadians have to choose …work for 5 more years or get out now while the getting is good !
The heavily taxed middle class have every right to want to retire early in Columbia, Nicaragua, Costa Rica. Etc…fyi you can still collect CPP and OAS ! So an income thet is upper middle class in a lit of Countries …
Probably true, except those leaving are the cream of the crop and those arriving are the bottom of the barrel. Also the bottom will stay forever, those with skills, education and future (not available in Canada) will leave.
This is nonsense. You are defined by the location of your BIRTHLAND. These emigrants are leaving to go where? They have arrived in Canada, become citizens and joined the VOTERS club. That does not make them CANADIANS!
lol sounds as if anyone in the world really wants to become Canadian
Agreed. Immigration is way up in the past few years. A percentage of immigrants leave. The number that might make sense is the ratio of emmigration to immigration. Also, more immigrants come to Ontario and BC than most other provinces. Sorry better dwelling, it’s not all about building more to lower housing prices.
It’s because Ontario’s unemployment rate is sky high. There’s no jobs for kids, so naturally they’re going to leave. People should try moving to province with a good job market and affordable housing like Nova Scotia. Tons of kids from Ontario have been moving here.
BC has the lowest unemployment rate in Canada. How do you explain that?
besides, the author’s point still stands: if you’re moving and bringing your own job, the difference between Nova Scotia and another country is basically the same.
Everyone wants Canadian talent. Canada wants cheap labour from India. So be it.
Bc is no longer able to attract any employable staff at all. With prices anywhere in the province out in space, high taxes and col, its not a good thing. If they raise min wage to 45/h maybe people would go there?
In calgary we have a massive in flow of hohsing refugees. A few are young, but mostly people cashing out and leaving.
Calgary is growing so fast that the services cant keep up. Unemployment is high here as well,but at least you can afford to have a house and food af the same time.
The reality is that the gta is basically a rust belt city that thinks its not. Chicago, detroit, cleaveland, pittburg, st louis and buffalo are all losing people too.
People are.moving south yo florida, georgia, texas, and so on. Even if canada can maks a deal to save some of the auto sector, the fact that its all moving south and wezt means that the idiotic plans to make ont the centre of a sc for evs was always a pipe dream. Too bad the peopld in the east like liberals who have consistently hurt them for 65y.
Do you own a device with spell check? I just skip over most of what you write because it’s basically unreadable…
Do you own a device with spell check? I just skip over most of what you write because it’s basically unreadable…
A big part of the problem is definitely privilege. Helicopter parents and social media influencers have convinced a lot of young people that real work — like welding, fabrication, machining, and trades — is beneath them or somehow undesirable.
These are good-paying jobs that build real skills, but many younger folks don’t want to get their hands dirty or work physically hard. It’s not that there’s no work in Ontario — it’s that too many people have been turned off from solid trades and skilled labour.
And let’s not forget another reason Ontario’s unemployment rate is higher right now: Trump-era tariffs are finally kicking in and hitting the auto, steel, and aluminium sectors hard. That’s caused slowdowns and layoffs in some of Ontario’s biggest industries.
I concur. A few of my friends have left for everywhere from the US to China, but articles like this aren’t helping. You should be focused on why people are staying in Canada, not showing others how popular it is to leave. This is anti-Canadian.
This is the dumbest point I’ve seen on the internet in a long time, and a prime example of why Canada’s social media tax should be eliminated.
You aren’t looking for news (coverage of a recent event), you’re looking for feel good propaganda. Check out the CBC, I’m sure they stepped over a dead TFW to tell you about how tasty the food they produced is.
Wow, that’s quite a rant. Let’s stick to facts instead of name-calling.
Nobody’s asking for propaganda — just real info. Ontario’s unemployment rate has gone up and is around 7.9% now, partly because of economic pressures like tariffs hitting the manufacturing and resource sectors.
And for the record, there’s no actual ‘social media tax’ in Canada for regular users posting or reading content. Maybe you’re thinking of proposed taxes on tech giants or digital services — a separate issue.
Happy to discuss facts, but not interested in trading insults.
Frankly at present the cbc, ctv, global, torstar, quebecor, city should all have a disclaimer tgat tgey arent news, more like a infomercial for carney.
The worsr part is we are all paying to be lied to?
GTA landlord, you are right. This exposes the cultist mentality that Canadians (especially Torontonians) have.
You’re supposed to say it’s paradise, and anyone that thinks otherwise is demonized and should go back to where they are from because Canada is the best place on earth.
Ok so reporting that people, after a dismal 10y of economic destruction worse than the great deprsssion, is anti canadian?
Maybe if we held our leaders accountable for their many failures since 2015 we wouldnt be in this mess.
The reality is if canada cant right this ship in 2025, which is basically impossible with carbey and crew in charge, we will be behind the 8ball for decades.
Im confused how so manympeople votrd for the same idiots who got uz into this mess to somehow get ys out? Its clear by now that carney is just trudeau 3.0, spend spend spend, tax tax tax. A joke that people cant see the forest for the trees. Trump managed to undo almost a decade of bad policy in 3mos. And hes the enemy?
Have you seen the shit his goons are doing? That’s good policy?
The governments at all levels know perfectly well this is happening, but they don’t care. They promise to fix the housing crisis but fail to do anything substantive.
The real estate values of the 70% who can afford a house and are banking on artificially inflated values to fund their retirements must be protected at all costs, even if it means sacrificing 30% of the population.
That means young people will never be allowed to own a home, and seniors and older people who were forced to retire early and can’t afford a house, will only be allowed unaffordable rents and be forced to decide whether they can afford to eat or pay for essential medications.
So the issue with hpusing has nothing to do with ‘supply’. The mechanism by which stephen harper avoided the gfc (in central canada and bc) was to expand the money supply and provide risk free funding for the private banks. This led to a massive expansion of the money supply,but since the main tool to deliver this expansion to consumers is housing loans, we say the price of housing rise substantially, despite a recession.
This might have worked had the removed the stimylus in 2015, but instead they contiinued to expand the.money supply.
So by 2025, the price of housing has extreme inflationary pressure, but because of sticky prices, govt intervention, and so on, price arent coming down, instead prices of everyrhing else is rising to meet it. Its basically how you create stagflation.
Exactly, Steve. And people wonder why so many young people are leaving? 1. Cost of housing 2. Cost of everything else.
And why people don’t want to have babies here anymore? See 1. above!!
Canada sucks now. We were born here, but can’t wait to leave. This country is ruined for a generation. Soon taking my teenagers to somewhere they’ll have opportunities to get good jobs and own a home of their own by working hard – and that isn’t Canada.
Punjabies have destroyed this one great country.
The US has robust Indian immigration at its schools, but there’s a difference. The US is making people compete to go to its top schools, while Canada is combing rural farming communities to see if they can scam families to attend a college that shares an office space with an immigration consultant that popped up overnight in a strip mall.
Are Punjabis the ones setting policy in this country?
So I lead an engineering team in big tech in Seattle WA and literally this is the profile of one of our typical junior developers from India: University of Connecticut Bachelor of Science in Engineering (BSE), Summa Cum Laude, Computer Science and Engineering Aug 2018 – May 2022
Grade: 4.0
Nope, that would be uneducated, racists like yourself. Do better.
It’s getting real. This is the first year that rental inquiries for students didn’t start in June. Landlords are resistant to lower rents, but the units are sitting vacant for months now.
I’m not sure where the CMHC is getting its data from but even at the highest vacancy rate since 2018, this feels like the pin that keeps prices up just popped out.
Well the issue will be that if no one is renting, the viability of a rental property will fall, forcing sales, and dropping prices. To your point, there is seripus downward pressure on rents due to supply and price. If rent prices fall 25, 35% many landlords will be unable to keep their properties.
This would be a net postive. The problem.is the govt subsidizing reits and ofher large landlords to flood the market at high prices which counters this.
The Liberals did such a great job destroying the Country that many have no choice but to leave now.
Canada is fast becoming a failed state. The main contributor to the chronic malaise?
Canada has the highest percentage of people that work for the Government. These are essentially unproductive people who are a huge drag on the Country.
The addtional devastating effect is that they are paid for out of our taxes.
Here is how the G7 compares:
Canada: 21.6%
United States: 13.4%
United Kingdom: 16.7%
Germany: 11.1%
France: 20.0%
Italy: 13.5%
Japan: 7.7%
All Governments use this as a way to stay in power. What better way to stay to get a vote then to give you a job with a great pension. The result is what you see today: A huge bureaucracy that in turn creates taxes (Federal, Provincial, Municipal). This is a deeply entrenched sytemic issue that will never be resolved.
I don’t blame young people for leaving. Their prospects are bleak. The successful countries have the lowest number of people working for the government. Canada is just at the beginning of a massive slide to poverty.
No brainer. New USA luxury houses cost 400K or less. Dump everything you own in Canada. Move to Freedom.
Yeah, and finding your way around your new country should be easy. Just ask one of the soldiers, or ICE agents, or riot police, directions to where you want to experience your new freedom. They are in every major city now. You also won’t have to worry about emigrating to a new country, they will choose it for you and give you a free helicopter ride in the middle of the night to your new choosen destination. Ahhh, FREEDOM. Now there is a country who has a plan and knows how to take care of its problems… WINNING
My wife and I were born and raised in Canada, went to UBC and really tried to raise our kids in Vancouver. It was impossible financially 🙁 We moved to Redmond Washington to work at Microsoft 12 years ago and it’s been amazing! Can live well off 1 income, great education, best and brightest from all over the world. We still love visiting our family in Canada of course!
How about you compare apples to apples instead of apples to oranges? Ontario has the largest population of all provinces and territories. In Q1 of 2025, Ontario’s population was 16,176,977 and, according to your numbers, 13,600 people emigrated to another country from Ontario. That’s an emigration rate of 0.084%.
BC on the other hand, had a population of 5,719,961 in Q1. And again, according to your numbers, 5,500 people left BC to live in another country. That’s an emigration rate of 0.096%.
So yes of course, more Ontarians are leaving Canada than from other provinces and territories, Ontario has the largest population in the country. But based on those population levels, BC is losing a higher percentage of their population than Ontario is.
Want to try again?