Canadian real estate soared on runaway population growth—but that fuel is running low. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the population stalled in Q2 2025, marking one of the slowest quarters on record. It’s uncharted territory for BC and Ontario, where home prices soared based on the myth of perpetual growth—yet both provinces are now shrinking.
Canadian Population Growth Has Only Had Two Worse Quarters Ever
Canadian Population Growth: Quarterly change in thousands.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
Canadian population growth is grinding down to one of the slowest rates on record. The population growth was basically a rounding error, advancing 0.0% (+20.1k people) to 41.55 million people in Q2 2025. Only two other quarters in history have shown weaker growth—in 2020, when physical restrictions prevented growth, and 2015 during the global energy downturn. Outside of those instances, this marks new territory for the country—especially if the trend persists.
Canada’s Population Growth Still Lofty Compared To Pre-2016
Those who didn’t notice are forgiven since the country is still coming off record growth. Annual growth still came in at 1.24% (+510.4k people) in Q2 2025—still robust, but half the rate of the peak observed in 2023. Aside from lockdown quarters with physical restrictions, annual growth is now in line with pre-2016 growth rates.
Ontario and BC Populations Made A Rare Contraction
Canadian Population Growth: Provincial breakdown of quarterly change in thousands.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
Breaking down the shift shows some provinces aren’t just stagnating, but now shrinking. The largest Q2 declines are estimated in Ontario (-5.7k people), and BC (-2.4k people). While relatively minor, especially in contrast to recent quarters, a quarterly decline is new territory for these provinces: Ontario has never recorded a weaker quarter of growth, and BC has only seen one weaker quarter—in Q4 2020.
Two other provinces were slightly negative, but a contraction so small it’s considered flat: Newfoundland (-115 people), and Quebec (-1.0k people). The remaining provinces posted mild gains, primarily due to interprovincial migration.
Falling population growth is generally a negative, but may not be this time. The population stagnation is due in part to a policy decision to allow the economy to catch up to the crushing pace of growth it failed to support. Canada also began to track outflows this year, which previously led to decades of overstated immigration retention.
The real question is what this means for real estate values—particularly in Ontario and BC. If sky-high home prices were justified by breakneck population growth that’s now stalling, that premium may now be at risk. Policymakers are currently prioritizing healthy growth, but it’s unclear if they can stay the course without the credit-driven bubble they’ve relied on.
Has anyone been to Toronto in the past two years or have people relied strictly on the media narrative? It’s a ghost town, apartment vacancies are higher than pre-pandemic, and no one wants any of tens of thousands of units without parking.
The City royally fudged up but won’t admit it.
I wouldn’t say ghost town but it appears the pain is intentional—the worse the trafffic, the more money you’re willing to let the gov pay to “fix” it. Multi-billion dollar infrastructure projects with inflated budgets is the goal.
The problem isn’t going to be realized. Young people will just leave while Boomers feel self-satisfied and blame the Orange Man for killing the economy.
I go to Toronto about once a week (from the ‘burbs), and don’t find it to be a ghost town at all. I hate the traffic so take the train in. Apartment vacancies may be high but prices are staying put. I wonder when reality will set in for sellers.
A house in my neighbourhood sat on the market for almost a year (with 4 different realtors and one price through it all) with no offers. I wondered why the seller didn’t lower his/her price.
I spent 6 weeks working downtown. Every 4th floor in the office towers were empty. People living in the streets. Concrete barriers at every intersection. Traffic gridlock all day long for no reason. It seems like There are fewer people working there today than there was in the 80s. The public spaces are decrepit. Detroit 2.0…
Good. Left Ontario and it was the best decision I ever made. Everyone hates on Alberta but if you’re young and actually want to work, they have a real economy.
Well, it’s temporary.
Problem lays here – a lot of TFW (in ON and BC what I know for sure) cannot make PR after their visa ends soon bcoz here it’s TOO TOUGH but much easier in AB, SK etc.
SO they move AB-SK, apply for PR, stay 1-2 years max and … well it depends how it goes but a lot will come back.
Bet this doesn’t last a quarter without reverting to population growth.
No worries – libs will bring next bunch of refugies from MidEast, and “refugies” who escape Trumps ICE deportation.
Shrinking job growth appears to be the prevailing pattern, regardless of where you live.
I’m having trouble finding a general practitioner to address my health concerns. The medical system doesn’t keep long-term information to reference regarding my past visits. AI could eliminate the loss of this information, saving everyone time and expense and give a quick diagnosis. I suspect AI could eliminate most of the paper shuffling in every profession. Robotics won’t eliminate physical assembly in my generation, which is good news for Ontario, where 70% of all Canadian manufacturing takes place.