Canada

Toronto Real Estate Forecasted To Barely Beat National Price Growth: Royal LePage

One of Canada’s largest real estate brokerages sees big price growth, just not in the country’s biggest city. Royal LePage released its forecast for Canadian real estate prices in 2021. They note the pandemic has accelerated a relocation pattern that started before the pandemic. Consequently, while price growth is optimistic, cities like Toronto are barely forecasted to outperform national price growth. 

Canadian Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Rise 5.5% In 2021

The brokerage expects Canadian real estate prices to grow rapidly, just not as fast as they did this year. The aggregate price of a home is expected to reach $746,100 in 2021, up 5.5% from where 2020 is expected to finish. The firm believes the pandemic “accelerated” relocation patterns. As work from home trends persist they observed buyers flocking to secondary markets, not too far outside of traditional major ones.  

Toronto Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Barely Outperform

The brokerage sees Toronto real estate rising at a rate not much greater than the national growth rate. The aggregate price of a home is expected to rise to $990,300 in 2021, up 5.75% from the previous year. The brokerage said this would be led by continued demand for larger units in the 905. Over the past year suburban homes have driven price growth across the region. 

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Rise 9% In 2021

Greater Vancouver real estate prices are expected to rise at a much faster pace than Greater Toronto. The aggregate price of a home is expected to rise to $1,262,600 in 2021, up 9.0% from this year’s forecasted finish. Most of these price gains are expected to be driven by demand for detached units. Royal LePage’s forecasts is the only one we’ve come across that sees Vancouver prices growing faster than the national average. 

Montreal Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Rise 6% In 2021

Greater Montreal real estate prices are expected to see slower growth next year, but still outperform. The aggregate price of a home is expected to hit $514,900 in 2021, up 6.0% from 2020. The brokerage does expect to see demand ease alongside the lockdown, as well as a potential uptick in mortgage defaults. The last point they believe, could potentially add inventory to the market, helping to keep prices from rising as quickly as they would have during the pandemic. 

The forecast is generally one of the more optimistic about real estate price growth, as brokerages tend to be. This one isn’t too far off from the base case of the CIBC risk model though. It also tends to rely on trends mentioned in other forecasts – the acceleration of relocation, and shift to detached homes most notably. The most obvious difference in this forecast though, is how the firm feels about Vancouver. Most firms, including industry groups, forecasted B.C. to lag in price growth. Royal LePage has its biggest market leading national price growth by nearly 50%.

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4 Comments

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  • Liam 3 weeks ago

    Royal LePage thinks real estate prices will grow? Stop the press! This is shocking stuff.

  • V 3 weeks ago

    And all these average homes worth more than 600k are going to keep selling. I trust realtors…….I have only been ripped off 2x out of 2 transactions with realtors. Crackheads can be trusted more! But then again Royal LePage ain’t Century 21 or Remax so maybe they can be trusted more!

  • Willem Hoekert 3 weeks ago

    Forecast, not forecasted

    • Trevor 2 weeks ago

      In financial writing, it’s “forecasted.” A forecast needs to be past tense for disclosure, because it’s in relation to moving variables.

      At the time, that’s what they thought. That may not be the case a day later. Like appraisal, it’s a snapshot.

      https://grammarist.com/usage/forecast-forecasted/

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