Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canada Loses 1 In 5 Immigrants, High-Skill Labor Most Likely To Flee
Canada is world-renowned for its ability to attract immigrants, but few realize how many it fails to retain. A new study found that 1 in 5 immigrants leave for onward migration after arriving in Canada, most within the first 5 years after arriving. The lack of focus on retention means significant capital invested in attracting and training labor is squandered, and instead of poaching global talent the country is paying to train its competition. Even worse, the demographic most likely to leave were hand picked for high-skill employment that Canada is lacking.
Canada Expects 1.2 Million Residents To Leave Next Year, Refugee Claims Soar
Canada is bracing for a mass exodus after an abrupt change to its immigration policies. A new plan to shrink the country’s population will rely primarily on reducing the temporary resident population. About 1.2 million temporary residents will see their visas expire next year, and while the country will be providing hundreds of thousands of visas to them, most are expected to leave. A big uptick of students suddenly claiming refugee status shows some resistance, but with the immigration minister himself expressing skepticism on the sudden surge, strong outflows are still expected.
Bank of Canada To Slow Interest Rate Cuts With GST Holiday & ON Stimmy: BMO
From a GST holiday to straight up cash, Canadian politicians are feeling generous with your tax dollars this winter. A few weeks ago the Province of Ontario announced it would be sending taxpayers $200 cheques. This week the Government of Canada announced a multi-month break from GST on essentials this holiday, and $250 cheques to households making $150k or less in the first quarter. The stimulus packages are equivalent to a whopping 0.3% of GDP, expected to provide a substantial but temporary boost to the economy. That boost has already helped the market to cut expectations of the Bank of Canada rate cuts in the coming weeks.
Canadian HELOC Borrowing Is Back, Rising Nearly As Fast As Mortgages
Falling interest rates are motivating Canadians to spend that home equity once again. HELOC debt climbed to $170 billion in September, rising 3.0% from last year. Total household debt secured by housing was even higher—hitting $325 billion, rising 3.2% over the same period. It’s an unusual level of growth, almost matching the rate of mortgage debt. If that’s not a coincidence, it may be a leverage problem in the making.
Canadian Household Debt Surpasses $3 Trillion For The First Time Ever
Canadian household debt hit a new milestone, surpassing GDP by a long shot. Households owed over $3 trillion in September, up 3.6% from last year. Annual growth of consumer credit (+4.0%) continues to surpass mortgages (+3.5%), both continuing to see an acceleration in accumulation. Credit growth typically marks consumer strength, but this time it’s occurring while delinquencies are on the rise. It’s worth paying attention when this combo appears.
Canadian Inflation Surprises Higher, Property Taxes Soar Most Since 1992
Canadian inflation made an “unexpected” acceleration. Annual growth of CPI climbed back up to 2.0% in October, as the base effect of falling gas prices eased and removed downward pressure. Stat Can made a special note of one major contribution to inflation—property taxes, which grew at the fastest rate since 1992. It’s unclear how the re-acceleration was unexpected since the Bank of Canada warned this would happen at the start of the summer. However, even they forgot about it at the last “supersized” rate cut announcement.
The definition of skilled labour can be misinterpreted. Since Canada is uncompetitive in manufacturing on the global stage (aka not a low-cost producer), they may be referencing construction. However, if you work in construction, most workers limp home after 40 years of age if they aren’t disabled or injured. It doesn’t matter what country these labourers go to; they face the same issues. It may be best to work/live in a country with satisfactory health care and workers’ compensation. Unless you work for the Government, you can’t expect to receive an indexed pension from the company where you worked.
NO BRAINER
142 MILLION HOMES AND FARMS IN THE USA IN ALL PRICE RANGES
ONLY LOSERS BUY IN CANADA