Canada

The Canadian Real Estate Industry Is Also Seeing National Price Declines

Canadian real estate prices turned negative, but not all markets are suffering. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show the national price index declined for a second month in a row. Prior to last month, price declines weren’t seen since September 2009, almost a decade ago. Despite the national drop, underperforming markets are beginning to boom.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Make Second Annual Decline Since Great Recession

Canadian real estate prices are showing annual declines for a second month. CREA reported the benchmark price of a typical home was $617,200 in March, up 0.83% from the month before. This represents an annual decline of 0.47% from last year, and prices are down 2.25% from the all-time high.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Change

The 12 month price in change of a typical home across Canada.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The annual pace of growth is showing the declines are getting larger. The 0.47% decline in March is an increase from the month before. This is the second month of negative annual growth, and  the largest since August 2009. The decline is very small in the grand scheme of things, but could be the start of a larger trend. Worth watching this number closely.

Ottawa, Guelph, and Montreal Real Estate Make Largest Gains

The markets leading price gains were Ottawa, Guelph, and Montreal. Ottawa’s typical home price jumped to $405,500 in March, up 7.64% from last year – the largest gain in the country. Guelph followed with a typical home reaching $537,700, up 7% from last year. Montreal followed with prices reaching $357,600, up 6% from last year. These markets made substantial gains, but are still significantly below the national index.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Price

The price of a typical home in Canada’s largest real estate markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The largest annual prices drops were in Vancouver, Barrie, and Calgary – in that order. Vancouver’s typical home fell to $1,011,200 in March, down 7.65% from last year. Barrie followed with home falling to $460,600, down 6.06% from last year. Calgary came in third with prices falling to $409,400, down 4.95% from last year.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change – 1 Year

The 1 year percent change in the price of a typical home, in Canada’s largest markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Five Canadian Real Estate Markets Are Printing New Highs

Negative national growth isn’t impacting all markets, with 5 hitting new all-time highs. Ottawa, Guelph, Montreal, Niagara, and Hamilton printed new highs for the price of a home in March. The markets are all under the national average, and most underperformed over the past 5 years.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change From Peak

The percent change from peak pricing for a typical home in Canada’s largest markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Some smaller urban markets are very far from their peaks. Edmonton is home to the biggest gap, where the price of a typical home costs $319,000 – down 17.18% from its peak price. Regina followed with a typical home falling to $264,100, down 16.51% from peak. Barrie came in third at $460,600, down 15.65% from last year.

Toronto and Vancouver real estate escaped the polar ends of the peak, falling in the middle. Toronto’s typical home is now $779,100 in March, down 4.63% from the all-time peak. Vancouver fell to $1,011,200, down 9.24% from peak.

Canadian real estate markets are experiencing negative growth, with a few notable exceptions. Only half of markets grew above the pace of inflation, with the largest markets growing close to. The national decline is very small at this point. So small, a single month’s movement could put it back in the green. However, it’s still worth taking note of the fact that the market is struggling to print gains. Especially after the significant drop in growth from the April 2017 peak.

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24 Comments

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  • Grizzly Gus 8 months ago

    Well……… QE has begun in Canada.

    Since November BOC has added $516,000, 000 in Canadian mortgage bonds to its balance sheet. 250,000,000 in March alone.

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1010010801

    Hold onto your wallets.

    • SUMSKILLZ 8 months ago

      By coincidence I was listening to Paul Simon when I read your post…”Hello darkness, my old friend…”

    • Zoika 8 months ago

      When StatsCan says “.. : not available for a specific reference period” for that data range prior to December, was that data simply not tracked or was it zero?

      Regardless, a huge increase in March!

      • Ethan Wu 8 months ago

        The asset buying mandate didn’t exist before December, so they couldn’t prior.

    • SMH 8 months ago

      Would you be able to explain what that means in laymen terms? Or like one of those “Explain to me like I’m 5” subreddits? Thanks in advance!

    • Smaug 8 months ago

      Looks like the BoC is trying to insulate the housing market from its own rate hikes. Buying mortgage bonds pushes up prices for said bonds, which pushes down yields. Banks can thus raise money for mortgages more cheaply than other types of loans, so mortgage rates go down, even while other rates creep up.

      So, continued cheap money for the real estate industry, and “rate normalization” for everyone else. Yet they whine about the stress test?

    • Gregory 8 months ago

      Yes, don’t step in front of that freight train. Rates lower for longer.

      $250M in March, so say the average Mortgage size is 300k — so that’s 833 houses they are helping to subsidize (drive rates down).

      so far ~ $0.5B bought on a Total Balance Sheet of $110B+

      They continue to broaden the range of “high quality” assets on its balance sheet beyond Gov’t Bonds and T-Bills.

    • Ry 8 months ago

      Yup. Big banks are starting to speak up about the stress test too.

  • Pierre 8 months ago

    Montreal, probably not going to fall anytime soon. It’s cheaper than Toronto, and larger than Vancouver. It’s amazing prices have stayed so low for so long.

  • Gregory 8 months ago

    I hope the bears are right.

    I sold my downtown Toronto condo in October – renting for $4400 a month – waiting.

    Need at least a 15% correction.

    • WW 8 months ago

      You literally write this every week. White people have too much time on their hands.

      • Grizzly Gus 8 months ago

        Stupid white people

      • Gregory 8 months ago

        are you talking about me ? or Better Dwelling writing the same stuff ?

        I guess you have time on your hands too ! I’m retired so I have loads of time.

    • Sideliner 8 months ago

      You should find a cheaper place to stay. I am renting a 5 bedroom 2900 SQF home that backs onto a creek in Oakville for $3000 a month. You can take the GO train downtown if you have to.

      • Gregory 8 months ago

        I hate to commute, I don’t need that much space. 1850 sqft is enough – appreciate the advice.

    • Average Man 8 months ago

      $4400 a month? Jesus. Even in Toronto, what the fuck are you renting my guy?

  • CanadaSucksBigTime 8 months ago

    Whites leaving out Vancouver and Toronto and migrating to Montreal. Not that many Whites left in Toronto and Vancouver. Same thing is happening in California that is a leftist state . So same thing is happening in Vancouver. and Toronto that are two leftist city. Too much diversity in Vancouver and Toronto for the average White person

  • Bob Emery 8 months ago

    “Now is the ideal time to buy!” -literally every panicked Realtor in the country

  • qt 8 months ago

    Time to start shorting those Canadian Banks!

  • Asterix1 8 months ago

    Please! I beg you…

    No more “benchmark” charts. These things are a total joke.

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