Canadian Real Estate Sales Print Longest Losing Streak Since 2008

Canadian real estate sales continue to slide even lower. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show sales dropped once again in March. The decline in home sales across the country marks an unusually long period of negative growth.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Fall To 6 Year Low

Canadian real estate sales slipped once again. CREA reported 41,964 sales in March, up 33.57% from the month before. This represents a 4.59% decrease compared to the same month last year. The monthly increase was normal, but the annual is most definitely not. Over the past 10 years, only 2013 printed fewer March sales across the country.

Canadian Real Estate Sales

The unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The annual pace of growth is getting larger, and printing an unusually long negative streak. Last month’s 4.59% decline is the third consecutive month declines have become larger. It was also the 15th negative month in a row – the longest streak since 2008.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change

The annual percent chage of unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Markets With The Most Growth Were Very Small

The largest sales growth was observed Niagara, Winnipeg, and Quebec City. Niagara, which topped growth, reported 521 sales in March, up 2.96% from last year. Winnipeg was next with 948 sales, up 2.71% from last year. Quebec City came in third with lucky number 888, up 2.07% from last year. In addition to small growth, each of these markets are very small themselves. The gains literally represent an increase of 15, 25, and 18 homes, respectively.

Canadian Real Estate Sales By Market

Canadian real estate sales in markets with more than 500 sales in 2018.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Greater Vancouver Real Estate Leads Sales Declines

Western Canadian real estate markets were hardest hit, especially Lower Mainland, BC. Vancouver had the biggest drop with 1,745 sales in March, down 31.6% from last year. Fraser Valley followed with 1,164 sales, down 26.14% from last year. Edmonton came in third with 1,331 sales, down 11.62% from last year. Lower Mainland markets sales are still dropping very quickly. Fraser Valley’s annual decline is more than twice that of Edmonton’s.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change By Market

The percent change in Canadian real estate sales, in markets with more than 500 sales in 2018.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Canadian real estate sales are still showing declines across the board. The few markets that did show growth, were extremely small. In fact, the largest gain by units is smaller than a typical rounding error in Toronto. Sales declines have gone on so long though, reversal or recession are likely to be in the picture soon.

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  • KT 1 year ago

    A little much to use an abandoned space needle picture, no? Is it from a movie?

    • Rick 1 year ago

      It’s not, it’s a picture of Niagara, the market with the “most growth.” Subtle joke I’m guessing.

    • MP 1 year ago

      And it’s not abandoned. Despite its run down appearance, it is acutally still operational I believe

  • Trader Jim 1 year ago

    Is a reversal even possible? Previous boosts to sales required helicoptering money with a 4 point drop, which we don’t have. They would have to go NIRP (kill all retirement plans, send food inflation soaring), AND lengthen amortizations. It would be lunacy, and true banana republic kind of stuff.

    • CanadaSucks 1 year ago

      Canada is already a banana republic. We don’t have money for new ice breaker of new navy ship. A nation that cannot defend itself is not a real nation. A nation that depend on housing to boost his GDP is not a real nation. A nation that used immigration as a way to boost GDP is a failed nation with failed people with no imagination to produce anything.

      • SUMSKILLZ 1 year ago

        Yeah, the whole war planes, icebreaker boats, submarines and rescue helicopters multi-decade debacle is quite the downer. That and the closing of Downsview base. I wish Downsview could have been the crown jewel of military bases in Canada. A sight to behold. What happened to big dreams?

        • CanadaSucks 1 year ago

          I used to be an engineer doing mathematical simulation of mechanical system. One day my company send me to US air force research laboratory. I could not believe how much money they had to do basic and applied research. I came back from this trip totally delusional about so call Canada superiority and so call best country of the world. I have stayed impressed to this day by the calibre of US engineer compare to Canada. Now I am understand why we have internet today. It was a reach project finance by the US army that has lead great benefit for the whole world and civilization. Canada seem to care more about projecting an image of progressiveness then wealth. You cannot build a nation of progressives values such as LGBT, mass migration, diversity, women right at the expense of men an so on. For my Canada has been a banana republic since 2000. I don’t like to quote Wikipedia but this is a well know fact:

          The U.S. Department of Defense awarded contracts as early as the 1960s, including for the development of the ARPANET project, directed by Robert Taylor and managed by Lawrence Roberts. The first message was sent over the ARPANET in 1969 from computer science Professor Leonard Kleinrock’s laboratory at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) to the second network node at Stanford Research Institute (SRI).

          I don’t Canada getting better and I am not surprised to see the young talented people leaving, I think I am done venting my frustration for now

          • Amy Mason 1 year ago

            What’s the point of projecting an image of being ‘a nation of wealth’ if only old, pale men of a certain sort are able to enjoy it and reap the benefits? There’s even more talented young people streaming into Canada, economic immigrants. And without them we’d truly be lost.

            Comparing Canada to the USA is unfair, they’re the most powerful and wealthiest country in the world, their population is ten times higher than ours. Of course they have advantages, and of course this means we’re part of their system. But the USA also has weaknesses, especially when it comes to diplomacy, transparency, and human rights. Canada has a role to play as a bridge and a moderating force between them and their would-be enemies. Which, if the USA had their way entirely, would be more than half the world.

            Canada’s by no means ‘the best nation in the world’, we have many competitors for that position, including Japan, which has three times our population. But being in the top ten isn’t so bad.

  • Me 1 year ago

    The spring market for detached homes in Toronto appears to heating back up.

    Sales up – and Inventory down.

    Condos have gotten so pricey – that SF looks like a bargain. Plus I see new SF homes under construction are down 50% from the peak in 2017.

    Nice to see. The real estate market is local after all. Or did that change ?

    • Brad 1 year ago

      umm how do you take lower sales as heating up?

      • Mtl_matt 1 year ago

        He’s doing you a favor by telling you to buy now or be priced out forever.

      • Me 1 year ago

        For example in the Vaughan Detached Market

        Sales up 19% over last 4 weeks vs a year ago to 158

        Inventory is down 6% to 661

        Townhome sales in Vaughan
        are up 21% to 94 while Inventory is down 32% to 176

        In Markham,

        Detached sales up 15% to 143
        Inventory is down 7% to 505

        Townhome Sales are up 16% to 95 while Inventory is down 28%

    • carlton 1 year ago

      “Sales up – and Inventory down.” what country is this happening? will that kind of action return to Toronto in the near future?

      • Me 1 year ago

        It’s more happening in 905 area. Where new home construction is down 50% in the last two years. And prices have corrected 15-20%.

        • Burt 1 year ago

          prices haven’t really corrected all that much in york region. if you dig and cherry pick listings you can find declines that big in the 1.5 million plus range. maybe even greater declines in that range but that’s pretty much irrelevant for everyone except like 2% of buyers.

          what needs to happen for any semblance of stability is for places in the 500,000 to 1 million range correct about 15-25% from where they are now to get back in line with the local economy and economic fundamentals. this may take another year or two though.

        • SUMSKILLZ 1 year ago

          Stuff is moving at corrected prices in my Aurora neighbourhood. Stuff priced right (say 2013/2014) sells in a week or two. That was not happening last summer/fall. I even saw a line up at a showing for a small semi the first day on market this past weekend.

          • Burt 1 year ago

            i’ve kept a pretty close eye on aurora and the rest of york region and as far as i can tell prices haven’t rolled back to 2013/2014 yet (although that’s where it needs to be) i feel they are closer to 15/16. anyway we shall see

          • Renter 1 year ago

            I see this happening in Stouffville as well.

  • Chris D 1 year ago

    Could we get data for the east coast as well? Thanks for all the hard work you do.

  • Popeye 1 year ago

    To see lower end homes sit in slowing or dead markets at similar pricing is a huge red flag we are nearing the breaking point. As inventories begin to balloon sellers will get realistic, the belief they can hang on forever is complete delusion. Eventually the property will have to sell.

  • Amy Mason 1 year ago

    As a MetroVan resident who can’t even afford an apartment, I’m thrilled that we’re finally starting to get this back under control. Maybe some day we’ll have houses available for under a million again? I still remember when prices were low enough a house could be bought outright for the cost of a modern down payment. And the average family’s annual income was less than an order of magnitude lower than the housing price…

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