Most Canadian real estate markets have resisted the national price decline—but that resilience is cracking. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the price of a typical home fell in December, with only PEI and Quebec posting gains. While most of the downward pressure has been concentrated in Ontario and BC, Nova Scotia abruptly posted the largest drop in the country last month. The sudden shift may be signalling that another province is ready to return to reality.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Down Over 21%, Driven By ON & BC
Home prices slipped again in December, with the typical home falling 0.7% (-$4.8k) to $660,000. Prices are now 4.0% (-$27.4k) lower than last year, and a staggering 21.6% (-$181.6k) from the March 2022 peak—though most of that decline has been contained to just a few provinces.
Nova Scotia Real Estate Prices Crater, PEI & Quebec Rise
Canadian real estate prices: 1-month change, December 2025.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Only two provinces posted price gains in December. Prince Edward Island led with a 0.9% (+$3.4k) jump, more than double Quebec’s 0.4% (+$2.3k) increase. New Brunswick was flat, with a negligible $100 uptick.
The rest of the provinces saw prices fall, some sharply. Nova Scotia led the decline, with prices plunging 3.2% (-$13.5k) over just one month. That’s nearly triple the rate of the drop seen in Ontario (-1.1%, -$8.0k) and BC (-0.8%, -$7.1k), the second and third largest in the country, respectively.
Most of Canada’s Home Price Declines Driven By BC & Ontario, But Nova Scotia May Be Next
Canadian real estate prices: Change from peak to December 2025.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Ontario continues to lead the country’s decline from peak. A typical home in the province is down 25.7% (-$259.2k) from the March 2022 peak to $749,400 in December. BC follows at a distant second, with prices down 16.6% (-$177.6k) to $894,000. Despite the national drop, nearly all of it stems from just these two provinces—but they may have company soon.
Nova Scotia is now the third-largest decline from peak, with prices down 5.6% (-24.6k) to $412,900. That might not sound dramatic, but more than half that drop happened last month. A correction that suddenly suggests a sharp shift in sentiment, that typically doesn’t just roll back the next month. With Halifax condo prices closing in on Toronto’s condo bubble, the market may have just snapped back to reality.
In other words, work from home just scheduled its funeral.
All the speculators returning to Toronto?
I have a very hard time believing that Quebec would go opposite the rest of the country. Situation here is bleak. So what I’m guessing is happening, sales are way down, but it’s the higher valued homes that are selling. Basically “richer” people buying and selling among each other. If CREA was legit and not simply a tool of the real estate lobby, they’d provide the real stat: Total value of all sales YoY. Give us the last 5 years of it, and we’d see how much real estate has crumbled since 2021-22. But they won’t do that as it doesn’t serve them.
Did Manitoba stop being a province?
When did Manitoba become a province?
Kidding. My understanding is Manitoba doesn’t produce an HPI for CREA, and because the land registry is privatized there’s no cost-effective way to actually get the provincial data. Also why third-parties skip Manitoba.
Thanks for the detailed reply!
The entire housing sector is in a bad way — if you are able, you can buy and sell, if not, you are likely a renter for life.
The Canadian government can do things to help make home ownership more affordable to all groups, but they are not focused on that. the city of Kelowna is aggressively working to return all rental properties to short term status! the region lacks hotels, and the government solution, to satisfy the tourism sector, is to rely on individual investors, rather than attract industry to build out more hotels, which in turn would benefit employment opportunities. Many people with means have snapped up 1000s of new construction units to simply AirBnB. As long as housing remains a means to gain wealth for the individual, prices will hold or even grow. The government makes and changes rules – immigration flow, short term rental laws, and even work from home opportunities. It will only get worse. Allowing units to remain vacant for AirBnB with tax breaks means the market will see a flurry of interest for investors, but what does that really do for a community? As a renter, I dislike short-term AirBnB — it reduces the number of affordable units for my needs, and often drives developers to build dog-crate styled units about 400sqft. If I was a buyer I would not like the competition to get into the market against groups or corporations buying up properties to rent out with surge pricing in mind.
Kelowna will win their fight to bring back a massive stock of units to rental platforms for travellers seeking ski, golf, wine and more; but they will continue to lose the working class that can no longer afford to live in the region — housing needs to be balanced and fair. It should never had been seen as a wealth development opportunity. No one should be afforded the right to own property and not actually live in it; not as long as the homeless population continues to rise, and for anyone out there who thinks that’s a lunatic leftist policy, just keep in mind everyone in Canada is at risk of becoming homeless due to the economic conditions we now face. Only a small percentage of Canadians are actually immune from losing their home. I lost my home from the COVID pandemic. Job layoffs, no employment — no way to pay the bills. Here too the government could have done something different with policy, but often the Liberals favour nothing but their own power and wealth. If it’s not happening to them, it’s not happening to anyone.
If you own your home, hold it and don’t fret about its value until you no longer need a home. If you own a place, and generate income renting it out – please consider a long term tenant vs short term. If you are like me, a life-long renter because you never could save enough to get into the market – just keep on, keeping on. Good luck!