Another Big Six bank has notified investors they’re prepared for falling home prices in the near future. National Bank of Canada (NBC) notified investors last week the bank has revised its outlook based on data up to Oct 31. While some indicators had surprising improvements from the previous forecast, some have revised lower. In all scenarios, including a surprisingly good one, the bank expects real estate prices to fall.
Forecasts for analysts are a little different from consumer forecasts, because they have multiple scenarios. Instead of one straight-forward answer, risk professionals prefer to look at a base case, along with at least one upside and downside. The base case is the scenario they believe is likely to unfold with the current information. Conditions change fast though, so they typically include a list of things to watch for, in case the picture gets better or worse.
The scenarios are fairly self-explanatory, but let’s go over them anyway. In the base case, the assumption is we continue the modest recovery that we’re seeing, without a hiccup. The upside would see a rapid deployment of an effective vaccine, and monetary measures contain any downside. The downside includes a delay in deployment of an effective vaccine, and/or fiscal measures aren’t effective. All three scenarios aren’t outrageously outlying in any way.
Canadian Real Estate Prices To Fall Over 5% In The Base Case
NBC’s base case scenario sees a modest price decline over the next 12 months. The bank sees home prices falling 5.2% over the next 12 months. In this scenario, other cofactors are GDP making a substantial climb of 3.0% in this period. They also see unemployment at 8.9%, which is inline with what RBC forecasted last week. This base case is just a little smaller than Canada’s largest bank is expecting, as well as the CMHC.
National Bank of Canada Real Estate Price ForecastNBC’s national real estate price forecast based on risk scenarios. Source: NBC, CREA, Better Dwelling.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Expected To Fall 1.5% Optimistically
The upside also sees Canadian real estate prices falling, but not as much. In an upside scenario, the bank is forecasting a price decline of 1.5% over the next 12 months. In the upside scenario, GDP grows by 3.7% over the same period. Unemployment also settles at 8.4%, significantly higher than last year, but a big improvement. Recessionary levels of employment and GDP in an optimistic scenario, only translate to a small price drop.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Expected To Fall Almost 10% In A Worst Case
The downside scenario sees Canadian real estate prices falling at almost double the base case. Home prices are forecasted to fall 9.9% over the next 12 months from October. GDP would make a very small decline of just 0.4% in the same period. The unemployment rate also increased to 10.4%, almost double the rate last year. The downside decline is similar to what other non-vested risk firms have forecasted.
The forecast for price declines isn’t far off from RBC’s last week, the CMHC, or other risk agencies. These numbers are for national declines, and likely mean markets that are most overvalued are likely to see bigger drops, while undervalued markets may see little impact.
Declines might seem unusual at this time while record real estate sales are happening. However, most risk agencies, and even the BoC, said they don’t see mortgage defaults or price drops until next year.
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