Vancouver real estate continued its mild slump. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) numbers showed slowing demand in October. Home sales in the region hit a 6 year low, while inventory reached a 4 year high for the month.
Greater Vancouver Real Estate Prices Are Up Just 1%
The price of a typical home across Greater Vancouver is up, but it may not be for long. REBGV reported the composite benchmark reached $1,062,100, down 3% over the past 3 months. Prices are now 1% higher than the same month last year, with prices turning negative in the City of Vancouver. The actual benchmark price is below peak, but not all that far.
Greater Vancouver Composite Benchmark Price
The price of a typical home across Greater Vancouver, in Canadian dollars.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
The change for the benchmark might have seller’s breaking a light sweat. The annual 1% is below inflation and smaller than the month before. The benchmark has now seen price growth decelerate since February. Rising inventory and lighter sales are likely to continue this trend in the near term.
Greater Vancouver Composite Benchmark Price Change
The annual percent change of a typical home across Greater Vancouver.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
Greater Vancouver Real Estate Sales Are Below 10 Year Average
Sales of Vancouver real estate continued to slow down. REBGV reported 1,966 home sales in October, a 23.3% increase from the month before. Compared to the same month last year, sales are down 34.9%. The board itself noted October 2018 is 26.8% lower than the ten year average for the month. Some news sources reported it as a potential sign of recovery, but a monthly October jump is normal. An annual drop is not.
Greater Vancouver Composite Sales Vs. Listings
The number of homes sold vs total inventory in Greater Vancouver.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
Greater Vancouver Real Estate Listings Jump Over 42%
The number of new real estate listings showed some big gains. REBGV reported 4,873 new listings in October, down 7.7% from the month before. Compared to the same month last year, new listings were still up 7.4%. The increase of new listings helped to push total inventory levels even higher.
The number of active listings for Greater Vancouver real estate saw a big increase. REBGV reported 12,984 active listings in October, a decrease of 0.8% from the month before. Even with the decrease, active listings are up 42.1% when compared to last year. The board noted that listings are now at a 4 year high.
Higher inventory and lower sales helped to draw the sales to active listings ratio (SALR) even lower. The composite market has a SALR of 15.1%, compared to 33.1% last year. Generally speaking, prices rise when the SALR is above 20%, and fall when it’s below 12%. The market is technically “balanced” at this point.
Vancouver real estate is starting to return closer to normal, but will it stop there? Sales are at multi-year lows, and inventory is at multi-year highs for October. Usually markets tend to balance a binge with a purge. Although the narrative that a binge is followed with normalization is totally adorable.
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Just a few more listings, or a few dropped sales, and Vancouver hits buyers market using the SNLR method. Prices are down in the city, but if you’re in the suburbs, you should really watch out.
Small improvement with inventory and sales from last month, but it needs a lot more to bring new buyers in.