Toronto Real Estate Board Sales Jump, Most October Inventory Since 2012

Greater Toronto real estate buyers were a little more confident last month. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers in October showed huge improvements from last year. Prices are still in a downtrend, but higher sales and improved price gains lend to the possibility of breaking that trend.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Up Over 2%

The price of a typical home across TREB moved higher last month. TREB reported the benchmark price of a composite home reached $766,300 in October, up 2.64% from last year. In the City of Toronto it reached $845,900, up 7.01% from last year. The vast majority of the gains were due to a rise in attached and condo apartment prices.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price

The price of a “typical” composite home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

The benchmark across Greater Toronto saw mild acceleration. The annual rate of change on both TREB’s 2.64% and the City’s 7.01% are higher than last month. However, benchmark price growth is still in a downtrend. Technically speaking, this is still a walk lower unless the benchmark rises above $772,400. However, the odds of prices breaking out of a downtrend did improve last month.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price Change

The annual percent change of TREB’s benchmark price for all home types.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Median Sale Price Rises Over 4%

The median sale price of Toronto real estate moved higher. TREB reported the median reached $683,000 in October, up 4.27% from last year. The City of Toronto reached $699,000, up a massive 7.53% from last year. The median is less useful for figuring out what you’ll pay. Instead, it should be used for understanding the direction of dollar flows.

Toronto Real Estate Average Sale Price Is Up Over 3%

The average sale price of a home improved across Greater Toronto. TREB reported it reached $807,340 in October, up 3.45% from last year. The City of Toronto saw the average hit $869,870 up 6.19% from last year. The increases are largely due to that jump in semi-detached and condo apartments prices.

Greater Toronto Average Sale Price Change

The annual percent change of the average sale price of all homes.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Sales Rise Over 5%, Still Under 10 Year Average

Greater Toronto real estate sales improved from last year, but still lag the trend. TREB reported 7,492 sales in October, up 5.98% from the same month last year. The City of Toronto represented 3,031 of those sales, up 5.86% from last year. This month is 5.29% below the 10 year average for October sales. A huge improvement from last year’s policy-impacted numbers, but far from “normal.”

Greater Toronto Sales To New Listings

The number newly listed units per month, in contrast to sales.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Board Has Most Inventory Since 2012

New listings of homes for sale were mixed across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 14,431 new listings in October, down 2.73% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 5,292 of those listings, up 5.10% from last year. Basically, the City saw more new listings than last year, while it dropped in the suburbs. The impact on total inventory wasn’t all that big.

The total number of active listings for sale showed only slight changes. TREB reported 18,926 active listings in October, up 0.35% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 5,665 of those listings, down 0.28% from last year. The slight increase across the board makes it the most active listings for an October since 2012. It’s not that big of a jump from last year, but it’s nearly 80% higher than the number we saw in October 2016.

Greater Toronto Active Listings

The number of listings available for sale in May 2018, across Greater Toronto.

Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto prices are still in a technical downtrend, but things may improve. The bull case: We’re seeing sales trend higher, and an acceleration in prices gains. This means the current crop of buyers are little deterred from jumping in. The bear case: Higher inventory and more expensive borrowing. This means inventory of homes for sale is rising, while that of qualified buyers is shrinking.

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  • Reply
    SUMSKILLZ 4 years ago

    In my neck of the woods, northern York Region, “New Price” signs vastly outnumber “Coming Soon” signs. At least that is what I saw walking a dozen or so streets during trick or treating.

    • Reply
      Mica 4 years ago

      Suburbs are looking at lot worse than the city apparently. Prices are only up 2%, which means you’re looking at a real loss in the burbs already.

  • Reply
    Smith X 4 years ago

    Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Sales figures and prices need to show a consistent trend.

  • Reply
    Ethan Wu 4 years ago

    Good observation with the downtrend. Highly unlikely to see a continued climb going int to the winter months. TSX is negative, showing a blended decline in profits and investment capital in the stock market.

    Disappearing capital from so-called “productive” investment vs “non-productive” is usually a sign of deteriorating economic fundamentals. Wait for it to show up in government reports soon.

    • Reply
      Yuzheng 4 years ago

      Yes, the precipitous drop in for most indicators should be flashing a warning sign for everyone. The world’s best investors are openly discussing the next investment crisis, and the average person is still thinking that things only go up.

  • Reply
    rx81 4 years ago

    The market is going down and the way government is going solve this problem is by boosting immigration to 350k (1% of canada’s population) per year by 2021. Unless those immigrants are bringing in boatloads of cash for a downpayment, reality is that they won’t have the salaries to afford the housing since you can only lend 4x your annual salary.

    • Reply
      Dar Robbins 4 years ago

      Many people I know with money have or are planning to leave the US and Canada.
      Government can expand GDP with cashless immigration through credit extension only for so long. We’re getting real close to a Minsky Moment.

    • Reply
      SCE 4 years ago

      This is a very simple way of looking at things. Everything is connected. Why do you think specific demographics form in specific neighbourhoods. IE. The old regent part. This was traditionally a poor area and no one wanted to live there. But is also took away supply from people who had money and wanted to live in a nice neighbourhood. So what happened to those people? They moved to better areas, say Rosedale area. That caused prices to go up strong.

      Well now, Regent Park isn’t looking to shabby anymore. It’s all about space, and there isn’t that much in Toronto. You can use this example for just about any area in GTA. Everything is connected.

  • Reply
    Jay 4 years ago

    The Fed down south will be fighting American’ salary ‘inflation’ (3.1% growth so far) by jacking up the interest rates as fast as possible.

    Canadian’s are in for a ride if BoC doen’t keep up.

    • Reply
      Yuzheng 4 years ago

      Interesting that the US is seeing salary inflation, but we’re not in Canada. Technically, we’re right around where we should be seeing full employment.

  • Reply
    Ian 4 years ago

    If you want to know the future of Toronto, follow Vancouver. They also saw the same detachment, with a rise in condos dragging the market higher. Now Vancouver’s condo market just entered a buyer’s market, so we should see prices drop rapidly. Toronto has historically trailed Vancouver by 6-8 months.

  • Reply
    SCE 4 years ago

    Crash and burn real estate…. oh wait. I mean wait for 6 months from now when the recession hits. That will show em logical people. Just got to wait 6 months….. er maybe 6 years. Anytime within that window prices will drop a bit.

  • Reply
    SCE 4 years ago

    Tick tock. BD4L

  • Reply
    Joey 4 years ago

    Real Estate market in GTA is healthy. People want to live here. Sure people predicting it will go down for the last 15 years will eventually be right and then say I told you so. But then it will go up again too. Most families in GTA have built their wealth through real estate and they will continue to do so. GTA real estate is one of the best investments you can make for your family and generation s to come. I’m glad my parents invested in real estate, as I did. It definitely established us in Canada. Rent is through the roof, and I will eventually give those rental properties to my kids. This way I know my kids will always be in the real estate game in the GTA and not be priced out.

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