Vancouver Real Estate Pre-Sales Fall 62%, New Launches 31% Below Expectation

Greater Vancouver real estate pre-sales are slowing, and inventory is rising. Numbers from MLA Canada, one of Vancouver’s top real estate marketing firms, show a decline in new project sales in November. Fewer sales are pushing inventory higher, even with  delayed project launches.

Vancouver Real Estate Pre-Sales Fall Over 62%

Greater Vancouver real estate pre-sales are slowing very fast. There were 487 sales in November, down 51% from the month before. Last month’s number represents a 62% decline, when compared to the same month last year. A monthly decline was expected, but the percentage decline was nearly 7x as large as last year. The annual decline is pretty rough, anyway you try to spin that.

Vancouver Pre-Sale Inventory Rises Over 38%

New listings for pre-sale real estate spiked, but came in below forecasts. There were an estimated 1,298 new pre-sale listings in November, up 38.86% compared to last year. Even though there was a large inventory increase, it came in 31% below MLA’s forecast for the month. This likely means more projects are being delayed until this month, or even the new year.

Greater Vancouver New Pre-Sale Real Estate Listings

The number of newly available pre-sale units of new homes across Greater Vancouver.

*MLA estimate.

Source: MLA Canada, Better Dwelling.

Lower Sales, Higher Demand Means Softer Market

The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) dropped as sales fell, and inventory increased. The SNLR reached 38 in November, down 36.66% compared to last year. The SNLR is a quick way to use same month absorption of new listings, to determine relative sales demand. When the ratio is above 60, it’s a seller’s market where prices generally rise. When it’s below 40, it’s a buyer’s market and prices should start to decline. Between 40 and 60 is considered a balanced market. Using this standard, we’re in a buyer’s market for pre-sale real estate.

Greater Vancouver New Home Pre-Sale Absorption

The ratio of sales to new listings of pre-sale homes across Greater Vancouver.

*MLA Canada number not available, Better Dwelling estimate based on inference data obtained from MLA.

Source: MLA Canada, Better Dwelling.

Greater Vancouver real estate pre-sales are down, while inventory is starting to rise. Delaying pre-sale inventory might help firm up the market, but pressure from the resale market may drag prices lower anyway. The condo resale market just made the single largest nose dive in the history of Vancouver’s benchmark price index.

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  • Reply
    Mtl_matt 4 years ago

    Why is the canary not moving anymore?

  • Reply
    Bluetheimpala 4 years ago

    Shiiiitttt sluuurrryy! Tick tock. BD4L.

  • Reply
    ken 4 years ago

    Big condo developers are insiders and know what’s coming, like all big financial players do, which is why, historically speaking, they almost never get caught in a serious downdraft. Not this time, this time they decided to build the most condos in Vancouver history, timed to complete at the worst time in Vancouver history.
    I guess they’re just extremely stupid all of a sudden.

  • Reply
    John Victor 4 years ago

    I went to the nearby Walmart in Vancouver this morning to do my Xmas shopping and it seems like the number of people living in campers is growing every week. When I drove home to my humble apartment the hwy entrance had homeless people living underneath the overpass. My little apartment didn’t seem so bad after all. My daughter is staying with us because the dorm closes over the Christmas holidays. It has been challenging raising 2 kids in an apartment but i t got done with a bit of drama .I don’t know what will happen in 2019 but I wish everyone a merry Christmas and a happy Newyear.

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