Vancouver

Greater Vancouver Detached Real Estate Sales Just Keep Printing New Lows

Greater Vancouver real estate is slowing, and the detached market is no exception. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) March numbers show prices are back to where they were almost 3 years ago. Rising inventory and a multi-year low for sales contribute to a declining outlook.

Greater Vancouver Detached Real Estate Prices Falls Over 10%

The price of a detached home across Greater Vancouver is still falling. REBGV reported a benchmark of $1,437,100 in March, down 10.5% from last year. In the City, Vancouver East fell to $1,390,700, also 10.5% down from last year. Vancouver West dropped to $3,026,300, down 12.3% from last year. No need to whip out the calculator app, the last one is a whopping $424,441 loss over the past year.

Greater Vancouver Detached Benchmark Price

The price of a typical detached home across the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.

Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.

The annual percentage declines are getting larger, and are nearing historic sized drops. Last month’s 10.5% annual decline marks the 13th month of consecutive deceleration. The annual pace of growth hasn’t been this low since June 2009.

Greater Vancouver Detached Benchmark Percent Change

The 12 month percent change of a typical detached home across the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board.

Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.

Fewest Detached Sales In At Least 20 Years

Greater Vancouver detached sales have dropped to the lowest levels in years. REBGV reported 529 sales in March, up 20.22% from the month before. This represents a 26.7% decline compared to the same month last year. The monthly increase is normal for the season, but the annual decline is not. The most recent March is the slowest for detached sales in over 20 years of data.

Greater Vancouver Detached Sales Vs. New Listings

The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.

Greater Vancouver Detached Listings Rise Over 11%

New listings for Greater Vancouver real estate are pretty close to flat. REBGV reported 1,798 new listings in March, up 28.79% from the month before. This represents 0.11% decline compared to the same month last year. The monthly increase is seasonally expected, and the annual number is close to last year’s levels.

The lack of new listings didn’t stop total inventory from rising. REBGV had 5,649 active listings in March, down 7.11% from the month before. This number represents an 11.37% increase compared to the same month last year. March detached inventory was last seen at this level in 2014.

Falling sales and rising inventory may be pointing to lower prices in the future. The sales-to-active listings ratio (SALR) fell to 9.4% in March. When the SALR is above 20, it’s a seller’s market – and prices are expected to rise. When the SALR falls below 12, it’s a buyer’s market, and prices are expected to fall. When the ratio is between 12 and 20, the market is balanced – and prices are just right. Currently Greater Vancouver is technically a buyer’s market.

Generally speaking, Vancouver’s detached market was hit with lower prices, a multi-year high for inventory, and a multi-decade low for sales. The market has wiped out nearly three years of price increases, and it’s hard to find any sign it’s firming up.

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17 Comments

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  • Reply
    Im Therious 4 months ago

    Anybody have any anecdotes about “friends” that have been left holding the bag?

    They say that housing will be last thing to go, after the toys, holidays, etc..

    We all know what is happening/will happen, but the Great Deleveraging seems not to have started in earnest yet…

    • Reply
      Bay 4 months ago

      Here’s a pipe dream. The Gesara that was passed and agreed to by our government and it is followed, there is a Jubilee component that allows one time forgiveness of all Canadian mortgages and credit card balances. Expected implementation by our government and US – this August 2019

  • Reply
    Bob Emery 4 months ago

    It’s time to address the elephant in the room: white people who get house-horny after watching HGTV and then go out in droves to bid up the prices on every mouldy East Van shack, making it impossible for hard working Chinese – whether they are new immigrants, first generation, second generation – from being able to afford a home to call their own.

    That these price drops have coincided with the mortgage stress test and not the foreign buyers tax that was enacted a year prior just further proves that white people are the real problem.

    I have a policy solution: a ban on home purchases by white people who watch HGTV. If you are have watched any HGTV at all, you should be forced to have a ‘cooling off’ period of six months where you are banned from buying a house. Perhaps also forced to read Garth Turner’s blog.

    I personally think this is a much more equitable solution than the stress test because it addresses the real culprits.

    • Reply
      Usman 4 months ago

      Its a racist comment from Bob, I would request admin to remove this.

      • Reply
        Bob Emery 4 months ago

        It’s a sarcastic comment from Bob.

        But we can all go back to blaming the Chinese for everything, like everyone else does, if that makes you more comfortable.

      • Reply
        gattu 4 months ago

        Huh, that’s racist? The best satire is funny, because it’s part true

    • Reply
      straw walker 4 months ago

      Interest rates on house purchases that exceed $1.5 million are not a reflection of that house selling.
      Banks rarely lend more than 50% on a house priced over $2 million. So the stress test only applies to affordable concrete apartments in Vancouver.

      Your negative comment on white CDN ownership of houses is wrong.. What has caused the speculative attitude in house pricing in Vancouver is the Chinese turning housing into the Chinese launder mat.

    • Reply
      Bob 4 months ago

      Have you sold a house on the west side in the past decade or so? The only people able to afford basic homes for $4,000,000 are those who ‘acquired’ the money in a different economic world. We feign the moral high ground and denounce SNC when they follow local customs abroad, while simultaneously eagerly accepting graft money being used to buy up real estate here.

      That tsunami of offshore money is still sloshing around the system, allowing local people to fund eye-opening East Van purchases with their windfall real-estate wealth – driving up prices from here to the Kootenays so that housing costs and local incomes are now disconnected province-wide.

      The inflow of money has slowed, but it still arrives here every day to some degree. (What else can you do with hundreds of billions in trade surpluses, but buy up the countries who are sending you their money?) Unless the inflow stops altogether, there will be a much, much higher floor on local real estate than there would be if local economics were the driving force.

      When someone drops $2,000,000+ on a moldy East Van shack, find out where the money came from. It wasn’t from saving their $53,000/year Vancouver salary.

  • Reply
    Rans 4 months ago

    How much it will go down further. Wanna buy a house in vancouver

  • Reply
    Rana 4 months ago

    How much it will go down further. Wanna buy a house in vancouver

    • Reply
      CaptainObvious 4 months ago

      Hi Rana it will go down exactly 23.4% for detached homes.

    • Reply
      C 4 months ago

      Just wait another two years and you will get a good deal. You will observe about 50% drop from today’s prices. Enjoy your waiting.

  • Reply
    Dan 4 months ago

    Bob’s post does sound racist, doesn’t it?!

    But for some reason, the reverse/official “narrative” of blaming on the Chinese have been rationalized to not be so.

  • Reply
    Terry 4 months ago

    They dropped 25% in 1994 to 1999. It’s about time for that cycle again.

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