Toronto

Toronto Real Estate: Detached Homes See Demand Fall In The City, Rise In The 905

Toronto’s detached real estate market is showing signs of stabilizing – relatively speaking. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show prices are officially on the rise in March. Meanwhile, the 905 and city, head in opposite directions with sales and inventory.

Detached Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Flat

Detached prices in Greater Toronto moved a little higher, according to the benchmark. TREB reported the benchmark (a.k.a. a “typical home”) hit $923,000 in March, up 0.08% from the same month last year. The City of Toronto benchmark reached $1,120,200, up 1.79% from last year. The increase isn’t much, but it is a big leap from the month before.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Price

The price of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The annual pace of growth is small, but it made a huge jump to arrive at that number. TREB’s 0.08% and the City’s 1.79% increase are an abrupt and large change in direction from the prior month. Large changes aren’t typically seen in the benchmark, considering they are multi-month numbers. As stated earlier this month, this may have to do with a seasonal adjustment distortion. No other pricing indicator made an abrupt climb. In fact, none of the board’s other major price indicators showed a rise at all.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Percent Change

The 12 month percent change of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The median sale price of detached homes across Greater Toronto showed minor declines. TREB reported a median sale price of $850,000 in March, down 2.63% from the year before. The City of Toronto had a median sale price of exactly $1,000,000, down 1.08% from the month before. For those wondering, this means half of detached homes in TREB sold at least 7.91% less than the price of a “typical” one. In the City of Toronto, half of detached homes sold at least 10.73% below the price of benchmark detached home.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price

The average sale price of a detached house in the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The average sale price also made a small drop across Greater Toronto.  TREB reported an average of $984,782 in March, down 2.08% from last year. In the City of Toronto, it fell to $1,267,598, down 2.03% from last year. The average sale price is less of an indicator of sticker prices, and more of a sign of dollar flow.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price Change

The 12 month percent change of average sale price across across TREB.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Detached Sales Rise In The Suburbs, Fall In City of Toronto

Greater Toronto sales of detached homes are on the rise, in the suburbs at least. TREB reported 3,230 sales in March, up 3.52% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 671 of those sales, down 4.95% from last year. Sales a rising in the 905, but falling in the City of Toronto. Sales across Greater Toronto are 26.3% lower than the median over the past 10 years. This is also the second fewest sales for March in the past decade.

Toronto Detached Sales Vs. New Listings

The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Detached Inventory Falls In The 905, Rises In The City

The number of new listings for detached homes fell across the board. TREB reported 7,364 new listings in March, down 8.07% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,431 of those new listings, down 2.85% from last year. The drop in new listings did more to total inventory in the suburbs than the City.

The impact of new listings dropped total inventory in the 905, but wasn’t enough to keep the city from rising. TREB had 9,361 active detached listings in March, down 3% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,750 of those listings, up 6.57% from last year. The 905 is seeing inventory drop, while the City’s lingering listings pushed the total higher. The number of active listings is 17.36% higher than the median over the past 8 years (as long as publicly available), and the second highest in that period.

Toronto Active Detached Listings

The total number of detached listings available.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The Greater Toronto detached market is stable, relative to last year. Prices are moving higher officially, but there’s a good chance it was a statistically anomaly. No other price indicator showed an increase, so watch the number carefully. What we know for sure is inventory is higher than usual, and sales are lower. The great inventory crunch is over, now let’s see how buyers react with prices.

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12 Comments

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  • Reply
    Marcus 7 months ago

    lol @ the benchmark. The concept of seasonally adjusted numbers is to compare consecutive periods, not annual changes.

    It is funny that real estate boards in Canada use a SA benchmark for prices, but every year is based on the previous year’s adjustments. This means every year is using a different adjustment. Unless they adjust the whole data set, at which point you’re comparing the past decade as one block? 2017 would create a lot of noise, since there was such heavy trading volume in winter months.

  • Reply
    Q 7 months ago

    In 2015, 2016 when I bought a house? Definitely low inventory. Today? Not even close.

    Literally thousands of homes for sale, just not ones people think are worth buying at these price levels. Glad I got in before the spike in prices, but even I know that has to roll back at some point. Ups and downs work their way out, I’m just happy to own a place that is just a few dollars more than rent. Would I buy today, just 4 years later? I would be extremely worried.

  • Reply
    Gregory 7 months ago

    A prime example that real estate is local… and to generalize is a mistake.

    There have always been pockets of strength and weakness across all types (condos, towns, SF) and areas of the GTA

    New Condo prices look insanely high now… and a Detached 905 SF look like a bargain vs $1.3M for an 800 sqft new Condo downtown. Same in 2015 when you could get a 1000 sqft condo in CityPlace for $550-600k and small urban semi’s were selling for $1.0M+…. now it’s flipped back.

    I remember watching Luxury Downtown Condos fall 15% from 2011 to 2015 – while the Semi Market was on fire !

  • Reply
    SUMSKILLZ 7 months ago

    Anedotally, in my neck of Aurora, stuff is moving again, but the pickings are very slim and sale prices are depressing if you need to sell.

    That being said, family in Montreal are foaming at the mouth with the RE frenzy never seen since maybe 1967. Folks are getting unsolicited bids on their homes from flippers. Cash deals, 21 day closings. Euphoria does not begin to describe the goings on. Everyone’s dreaming of being a millionnaire.

    • Reply
      Joseph 7 months ago

      Ottawa’s pretty bad right now too (bad if buyer, good if seller). Similar things happening.

      Over last weekend, people set up lawn chairs to camp out for the release of HN homes Riverside South build. 26 units, 615k to 900k.

      With that said, they are an excellent builder. Maybe the best in Ottawa. Quality builds.

  • Reply
    questionguy 7 months ago

    would love to see these graphs superimposed on previous bubbles- is this stabilizing or dead-cat bounce?

  • Reply
    gattu 7 months ago

    These charts tell the story a LOT more clearly https://torontorealestatecharts.com/toronto-detached/

  • Reply
    Tan 7 months ago

    Always look in the past if you are trying to predict the future, i think from here price fall or rise doesn’t matter owning a home will be a dream for many in future as it was in the past.

  • Reply
    Jojo 7 months ago

    Throughout my career in real estate investments, I’ve always felt like I’ve bough it at the very peak. Turns out market always seem to correct itself over 5 to 7 years. “Overpriced” perhaps means the new baseline.

  • Reply
    Vladamir Putin 7 months ago

    Liquidity is reaching super saturation levels….debt defaults will lead to deflation…thats why Canadian Banks are being shorted

    • Reply
      Tudval 6 months ago

      Banks don’t think they have a problem with debt servicing. They should know. Liquidity can be added quickly if needed.

  • Reply
    Tudval 6 months ago

    These are pretty small differences.. detached homes are pretty much flat from last year in 416, with little ups and downs, also depending on the area. Right now it seems to be going a bit up again after a slow March (bad weather also). Still many sellers looking for unreasonable prices, 10% or more above market, did some agent fool them they could get that price? Of course, everybody would like to sell 10% above market everything.. stocks, gold, etc, then buy back cheaper, but it just doesn’t work that way. It just gives the impression of more inventory than it actually is available at current prices.

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