Greater Vancouver’s condo market continued to cool quickly. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) numbers show prices are near flat in December. The rapid decline in price growth was accompanied by doubling inventory, and a multi-year low for December sales.
Greater Vancouver Condo Prices Are Up Less Than A Point
Condo prices in Greater Vancouver have wiped out most gains over the past 6 months. REBGV reported a benchmark price of $664,100 in December, shedding 6.4% from 6 months ago. REBGV condo prices are now up just 0.6% from the month last year. In the City, Vancouver East posted a benchmark of $538,000, down 1.4% from last year. In Vancouver West it fell to $738,700, down 2.9% from last year. Prices in the City of Vancouver are leading the market lower for condos.
Greater Vancouver Condo Apartment Benchmark Price
The price of a typical condo apartment across Greater Vancouver, in Canadian dollars.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
The pace of price growth continues to taper across Greater Vancouver. The 0.6% annual pace of growth is the 11th consecutive month of growth deceleration we’ve seen. It’s also the lowest pace of growth seen since September 2013.
Greater Vancouver Condo Benchmark Price Change
The annual percent change of a typical condo across Greater Vancouver.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
Vancouver Sees Fewest December Sales Since 2008
Condo sales across Greater Vancouver dropped to Great Recession levels. REBGV reported 535 sales in December, down 33.95% from the month before. This represents a 47.95% decline compared to the same month last year. The monthly decline is expected, but the annual decline is unusually large. This was the fewest December sales since 2008.
Greater Vancouver Condo Sales Vs. New Listings
The number of condo apartments sold vs new inventory in Greater Vancouver.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
Vancouver Condo Inventory More Than Doubles
The number of new listings for condo apartments made a substantial decline. REBGV reported 643 new listings in December, down 61% from the month before. This represents a 30% decline compared to the same month last year. The decline in new listings wasn’t enough to make a dent in the rising total inventory levels.
The number of active condo listings continues to build higher levels. REBGV reported 3,771 active listings in December, down 18% from the month before. This represents a 118% increase compared to the same month last year. That’s right, more than double the condo inventory.
The rise in inventory and decline in sales could apply more downward pressure on prices. The sales to active listings ratio (SALR) fell to 14.2% in December, down 76% compared to last year. This is the lowest it’s been since 2014. Generally speaking, a ratio above 20% means we’re in a seller’s market, and prices should rise. Below 12%, and it’s a buyer’s market, meaning prices should fall. Between 12% and 20% is technically a “balanced” market, but the rapid deceleration could see a buyer’s market soon.
Greater Vancouver Condo Sales To Active Listings Ratio
The ratio of sales to active listings in Greater Vancouver. Higher ratios mean more pressure on prices to rise.
Source: REBGV, Better Dwelling.
The Greater Vancouver condo market is seeing higher inventory, and a multi-year, recession level low for sales. It shouldn’t be a huge surprise that price growth has fallen nearly flat, and is trending towards negative growth. Prices in the city are already falling, and the suburbs aren’t generally known for propping up a market.
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As inventory continues to grow and no one wants to touch RE, I don’t see any end to the slide in prices. Even with rate hikes slowing or stopped, QT continues to effectively pull liquidity from the market and act as rate hikes.
Only way to stop a “price decline” is massive inflation, but I don’t see how that is in Canada’s best interest. Pensions would be crushed anyways and I’m not sure anyone is better off.
“REBGV condo prices are now up just 0.6% from the month last year”….WTF?
curious to see what spring will bring. First 3-4 months last year sales were still up for those pre-approved by the b20 stress test but to me the real comparison will be after may
Even Better Dwelling putting out BS stats now, as if anything in Vancouver is going up. Here’s some truthful, real data folks.
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends
That link you posted shows the condo median price dropping quite a bit over the last year.
Wait until summer