Greater Toronto real estate got its first annual price decline since 2009. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show sales continued to slide, and inventory continued to climb. This resulted in prices declining across Greater Toronto on an annual basis… although prices are up from last month. Don’t worry, we’ll walk you through the data.
Benchmark Prices See First Annual Decline Since 2009
Toronto real estate prices continued to see growth taper, and even turn negative in some segments. The price of a “typical” home is now $760,800 across all TREB regions, a -1.50% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw the benchmark drop to $817,800, a 4.78% increase compared to last year. Prices remained positive in the City of Toronto, due entirely to exuberant condo price escalation.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
It should be noted that Greater Toronto prices are up compared to last month. The benchmark increased by almost $9,100. Good news if you bought last month, but things aren’t so cheery if you bought a year ago. This is the 11th consecutive month the annual price change has dropped. Turning negative from the massive 31.26% peak it made a year ago. The 1.5% decline is the first decline observed on the benchmark since July 2009. Remember benchmark prices tend to “smooth” the trend. Fast moving markets should take other measures into consideration.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
One of the most popular measures is the median price, a favorite of Mainland Chinese buyers. The median sale price across all TREB regions is $651,000, a 14.9% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto has a median of $680,000, a 3.12% increase from last year. Medians show a larger drop in Greater Toronto, and a more conservative increase in the City.
Greater Toronto Average Sale Prices Decline Over 14%
The much more volatile average sale price showed declines. The average sale price across TREB reached $784,558, a -14.26% decline from last year. The City of Toronto saw an average of $817,642, a -9.09% decline from last year. Remember, average prices aren’t great for determining how much you’ll pay for a home. They’re great for determining the flow of upgrades.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Sales Decline Almost 40%
Toronto real estate sales continued to slide. TREB reported 7,228 sales across all regions, a 39.53% decline compared to last year. Breaking that number down, the City of Toronto saw 2,797 of those sales, a 33.78% decline compared to last year. The 905 saw 4,431 sales, a 42.67% decline compared to last year. Declining sales don’t mean a lot as a number by itself, so hold judgement until you see how it compares to inventory.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Inventory Soars Over 103%
New listings are starting to decline on an annual basis. TREB reported 14,886 new listings in March, a 12.43% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 4,438 of those new listings, a 22.34% decline. The 905 saw the other 10,428 new listings, a 7.41% decline. The sales to new listings ratio is at 49%, which CREA calls a “balanced market.”
Sales declined faster than new listings, so total inventory did continue to swell. TREB reported 15,971 active listings across all regions, a 103.06% increase compared to last year. In the City of Toronto, there are now 4,104 active listings, a 46.10% increase compared to last year. This is the part where the industry goes “but it’s below historic inventory levels.” Then we go, “but so are sales.” It’s a cute little back and forth we do.
Source: TREB. Better Dwelling.
Confused about the numbers? Well, they’re confusing this month. Prices are down across TREB compared to last year, but up from last month. Before trying to jump to a conclusion, it’s worth remembering how benchmark prices work. Since they’re a moving average, sales bought with mortgages approved before B-20 Guidelines, are being averaged in with sales made afterwards. The full impact, or lack thereof, won’t be known until at least the end of May. Changes related mortgages issued with foreign income won’t be known until August. Looking for clear market direction? You won’t get it until then.
As always, we’ll be breaking down the market into segments a little later.
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