Toronto

Toronto Real Estate Is Seeing Detached Prices Climb, But Still In Correction Territory

Toronto Real Estate Is Seeing Detached Prices Climb, But Still In Correction Territory

Toronto real estate is seeing detached prices climb for a second consecutive month. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show prices inched higher in March. Even with the climb, prices are lower than last year, as declining sales and rising inventory continue to release pricing pressure.

Greater Toronto Detached Prices Are Down Over 6%

Toronto’s detached market is back to seeing prices climb, although they still remain lower than last year. TREB reported the benchmark price for a detached reached $924,900 in March, a 6.69% decline from the year before. The City of Toronto saw benchmark prices reach $1,100,500, a 6.17% decline from the year before. Despite the negative climb, market directions isn’t all that clear.

Better Dwelling. Source: TREB.

The benchmark price is higher than the month before, but is still in correction territory. The detached benchmark price climbed for a second consecutive month, and is now 1.96% higher than the low reached in January. Though the benchmark price is still 11.87% lower than the peak, meaning it’s still in correction territory. The rise is encouraging, but it’s definitely not out of correction territory. Even if a bank CEO says it three times,  while rubbing a copy of their mortgage book.

For those skeptical of the benchmark, the median price is also lower. TREB reported a median sale price of $873,000 across all regions, a 14.66% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw a median sale price of $1,010,955, a 19.97% decline compared to last year. Medians don’t account the change in sales mix, but are the most commonly used method of analyzing prices globally. This metric is particularly popular with Mainland Chinese buyers.

Better Dwelling. Source: TREB.

The average sale price is also still negative, but slightly higher than the month before. TREB reported an average sale price of $1,005,779,  a 17.1% decline from last year. The City of Toronto had an average sale price of $1,293,903, also a 17.1% decline from last year. As a monthly reminder, average sale prices are not indicative of how much you’ll pay for a house. They are better used as an indicator of upgrade flow, which we’re not seeing.

Better Dwelling. Source: TREB.

Greater Toronto Detached Sales Are Down Over 46%

Sales of detached units have dropped significantly. TREB reported 3,120 sales across all regions, a 46.3% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 706 sales, a 41.1% decline compared to last year. A decline in sales doesn’t mean a whole lot until you look at inventory.

Better Dwelling. Source: TREB.

Greater Toronto Detached Inventory Is Up 122%

Speaking of which, there’s a lot more inventory. New detached listings across TREB reached 8,011, an 11.1% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 1,473 of those new listings, a 23.44% decline compared to last year. The drop in new listings was lower than the drop in sales, which led to rising inventory levels.

Active detached listings, those still available for purchase, soared across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 9,651 active listings, a 122% increase compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw 1,642 of those listings, a 66.36% increase. The significant rise in listings, combined with the decline in sales, should mean less pressure on prices to increase.

Major policy changes, and higher interest rates, lead to a little market unpredictability. There’s almost no way to tell how people are going to react to the changes, until six to twelve months of the changes. We’re less than three into B-20. Despite that, many media outlets, and even bank executives, are calling the two month increase the “end” of the correction.

There’s no way to tell if the correction will continue, or has already ended. Two months of price increases are encouraging, but you should probably learn what equities analysts call a dead cat bounce. Any asset that falls from a great enough height, will bounce – even a dead a cat.

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72 Comments

  • Reply
    Ahmed 2 weeks ago

    Convenient the RBC CEO is saying the correction is over. Must align with their China expansion. Fun fact, BMO bank machines show ads in English and Chinese now. Yes, a Bank from MONTREAL doesn’t even show Canada’s second official language now.

    • Reply
      Rui Amaral 2 weeks ago

      TD has been doing this for a while now

    • Reply
      Dirty City 2 weeks ago

      BMO hasn’t been based out of Montreal for almost 50 years now. Just like ScotiaBank hasn’t been based out of Nova Scotia for almost a hundred years. The banks just the names to sound regal and important and give the impression of choice. If you want a real Quebecois financial institution look to Desjardins.

    • Reply
      Alistair McLaughlin 2 weeks ago

      Bank machines have been doing that since the mid-1990s. Even in Winnipeg, where I lived at the time.

  • Reply
    Sammy 2 weeks ago

    Important to remember month over month numbers are useless. We always see prices seasonally climb here, the annual trend is what you should be watching. If prices fall with the post-May taper, that’s when you know shit hit the fan.

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 2 weeks ago

      Exactly, the music is still playing for many. Who will be left without a chair?

  • Reply
    Bluetheimpala 2 weeks ago

    Gotta expect a pop after a few months of declines; there is still old/bad money in the system. As the author noted we’re still in the early phases. Tick tock.

  • Reply
    Laura 2 weeks ago

    As someone who’s renting and waiting patiently for prices to go back to where they were in, say, fall 2015 (when you could buy a 3 bdrm detached relatively nice home in midtown Toronto for a million even), is this day ever going to come? Seeing these stats makes nervous and depressed, even though I’m an avid reader of this blog and completely understand, using sheer intellect and common sense, how messed up this housing market is.

    • Reply
      Joe 2 weeks ago

      March and April are the last two months where pre-approvals that happened prior to B-20 will expire, so you can expect a lot of panic buying and really numbers don’t matter until we see the data from May (which will be first week of June).

      Also note that markets don’t go straight down 90 degrees, they go down some, up some, down some, up some… but the only thing that matters is the overall trend, which is currently a major down trend when you look at the tech analysis.

    • Reply
      MH 2 weeks ago

      Patience and prudence will be rewarded.

    • Reply
      Dirty City 2 weeks ago

      It took two years for the market to bottom in Toronto in the early 90’s. But hard to say what will happen this time. It’s better to not try to time the market and buy what you can afford with your finances. If a house is really what you want have you thought of moving to Ottawa, Calgary, or another city where you can get all the services you want without irrational pricing?

      • Reply
        xelan 2 weeks ago

        Unfortunately it took around 7 years back than from the very top to the very bottom adjusted for inflation.
        Even if you want to buy a house to live in, it’s your life in on stake- 25-30 years slavery commitment. When you factor in interest payments and also taxes you pay on your salary 1Mil purchase can easily turn into 2.5-3M money you have to earn in order to pay it off over 25-30 years.

      • Reply
        John 2 weeks ago

        It took 6 years. 2 years of hard decline, 4 years of gradual decline. Beginning in 1990, prices did not uptrend until 1996.

        They have continued for 21 years unabated. 3 years longer than the average 18 year cycle.

      • Reply
        vnm 2 weeks ago

        Worst advice ever.

    • Reply
      Mmr 2 weeks ago

      It will take time. No one can time market perfectly. My question is why didn’t you buy in 2015? I know people could not make decisions three or five years back when they could afford but didn’t pull the trigger. And keep waiting. After 2015 everything become over valued. So now you have to wait. If price don’t keep falling by end of this year then you might have to wait for Even longer unfortunately but don’t Jump in to market now it’s too late.

      • Reply
        Joe 2 weeks ago

        If you look at the overall housing graph the market became detached from fundamentals between 2011-2012, it’s just that is got much worse in 2015. Realistically we should see a drop followed by stagnation until we hit 2012 prices + 3% annual for 6-8 years adjusted for inflation.

    • Reply
      Russ 2 weeks ago

      Home price will fall below the 2015 level quicker and sooner than expected. 2019 and 2020 will be the years to look for. The 1990 real estate correction took 6 years to reach bottom and 1996 was the lowest point.

      • Reply
        Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

        There are a few key differences with today vs then however. 70s into the 80s is when a lot of women joined the workforce. Household income increased as such. Speculating but I assume this helped put a floor on how far prices could fall back afterwards.

        Also, HELOCS weren’t really a think back then. The amount of Canadian HELOC debt grew 800% between 2000 and 2012. Growth rate tapered big time afterwards but overall amount has continued increasing since. Globe had an article the other day labelled the 208 billion dollar debt trap. Interesting read

        • Reply
          vnm 2 weeks ago

          The 80s bubble was also fuelled by half a million anglo Quebeckers leaving the province after 1976 , most of them to Toronto. It was a huge demographic shift.
          They didn’t move back, so even though prices fell by nearly 50% between 1989 and 1996, it curtailed the correction.
          There is no economic or demographic justification in Toronto for the current bubble, that we now know. And since it’s happening in major cities all over the world, one looks to the common denominator, low interest rates and consequential unbridled speculation.
          That party is over, interest rates are grinding slowly up.
          When interest rates started going up, that was the beginning of the correction.
          The rest is smoke and mirrors. Bluetheimpala has it nailed: tick tock!

          • Bob 2 weeks ago

            “There is no economic or demographic justification in Toronto for the current bubble, that we now know.”

            That is absurd. Marginal demand at the top has driven the market in Vancouver. And it sounds like it has done the same in Toronto. All of that demand is the result of concentrated global wealth. That wealth needs a location, and Canadian real estate has been one of the best places to put it. The forces today are much more powerful economically than in the 70’s and 90’s.

          • vnm 2 weeks ago

            Bob, agree 100%. Concentrated global wealth, facilitated by networked information and banking systems, and non-existent government protections.
            But I categorize all that under consequential unbridled speculation.
            Economic reasons would be demographics, household income/debt etc.

          • Alistair McLaughlin 2 weeks ago

            There was also a massive increase in the 25-34 year old age bracket as boomers had just hit their home buying years in the 70s and 80s. We’ve seen the same thing with Millennials from 2001 to present. In 2020, that age bracket will once again stop growing and start shrinking, even with the recently announced increases in immigration. Last time that age group was shrinking was 1990 – 2000. We know what housing did during that decade.

          • Josh 2 weeks ago

            There is actually a demographic move into the GTA: immigrants. E.g. in Q4 28000 immigrants moved into Ontario, with the vast majority going to the GTA and Golden Horseshoe area. That gives one more than 100000 per year,. And new building is just not keeping up with the demand. Until the supply situation improves to meet the demand, prices will keep on going up unless the economy really tanks.

          • AJ 2 weeks ago

            Josh
            RE prices are not determined by the supply & demand of housing, but by how much liquidity is in the credit market. We have drunk enough from the cheap credit punch bowl and that is being taken away from us in the form of higher interest rates, tighter regulations and some economic headwinds. So even if all the immigrants want to buy houses, where are they going to get the financing?

          • Raging Ranter 2 weeks ago

            Josh, new building has exceeded new household formation in the GTA. That has been proven with statistics here and elsewhere. Look it up.

            More than 50% of condos are purchased by investors, with nearly half of those losing money after mortgage & condo fees (would be 75% if property taxes, insurance and maintenance were counted). In high spec neighbourhoods like Richmond Hill, almost a quarter of all detached houses were purchased by “investors”. That’s not organic demand driven by new household formation, that’s speculative mania.

      • Reply
        Mmr 2 weeks ago

        It might fall below 2015 or it might not. This things are never certain. You have to wait end of this year to see what happen. If prices don’t fall any further or remain stable it will be hard to tell things will change next year. One thing for sure it will not increase any more. Either stable or correction now what percentage correction we have to wait.

        • Reply
          vnm 2 weeks ago

          A safe bet, but I think it has to fall back to 2011 levels or the city will fall apart and then all bets are off.

        • Reply
          Tommy 2 weeks ago

          I think it has a higher probability of falling back to or even below 2015 prices because the historical data shows that it’s very rare to be long stretches of “stability” in the real estate market especially in the midst of corrections created by global factors and immense government interventions. The markets are either rapidly shooting for the stars year-over-year, or plummeting.

          The exuberance is over for anyone following the stats. Only very non-savvy and unsophisticated people are buying now. It’s literally the worst time to buy in the past 20 years.

    • Reply
      rob fritz 2 weeks ago

      why buy? just rent for awhile in Toronto. much cheaper than owning a house. prices may go down but the interest rates go up. i think you will pay the same (monthly mortgage etc…) for a house in 2019 as you would have in 2016/17 even if the house went down 10-20% due to interest rate increase and tax rate increase. I believe the government is too invested in real estate for them to allow a major correction. the entire fair housing plan was to make sure there was not a major crash.
      we’ll see. this GTA market is fascinating and like no other.

      • Reply
        MH 2 weeks ago

        It is exactly like any other speculative bubble out there. If it fascinates you, it only means that you have not seen this dog and pony show before.

        • Reply
          rob fritz 2 weeks ago

          I’ve been around. This one had the government come in at the height and introduce completely new rules. unprecedented. This one is different. super low interest rates. ridiculous foreign demand and domestic speculators. helocs as financing vehicles etc… great economy, election year. Most torontonians can’t shake that previous owners have made so much money on housing and can’t believe they missed out. They still want in (huge demand) for the next pop in the future.

          • MH 2 weeks ago

            Given that both prices and sales are down YoY this huge demand is apparently coming from an increasingly small group of people.

            I get it, you have a pony to sell and you came here to tell everyone that it is in huge demand in case anyone is interested. If you think that it is a pinnacle of creativity then I have to disappoint you, such carnival barkers are always a part of the very same old show. Their favorite spiel is “This one is different”.

        • Reply
          frank diesel 2 weeks ago

          YoY don’t mean nothing when government did insane intervention. keep renting ass-wipe. what yo portfolio? just another loser looking for crash.

          • Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

            Its funny. Last summer the RE talk was forget about the MOM drops we have seen since the April peak. If you look at YOY we are still up X%….. sales should pick up in the fall.

            Now…… don’t worry about YOY. It was crazy last year. Look at MOM, sales volume and price have been increasing since January…….. sales and prices should pick up in the late spring early summer.

            I predict in late spring/ early summer when we are comparing sales to the months immediately following the fair housing plan it will be – Look at YOY, prices and sales have now stabilized, but don’t focus on MOM because it always trends down following the busy spring season

          • Raging Ranter 2 weeks ago

            You sound nervous Diesel? That big mortgage starting to feel like a noose?

      • Reply
        vnm 2 weeks ago

        Your point perfect illustrates why prices have to fall by at least 50%.
        With housing there has to be at least a vague parity between what people can afford and the price.
        The mantra “if you can’t afford it, move somewhere cheaper” is absurd because the way things are it would involve relocating most of city. It’s like saying if the water is too expensive, find something else to drink.
        If the government had the power to disallow corrections, there wouldn’t be any.
        In fact the housing mess we’re in is a result of a failed attempt to do just that.

      • Reply
        Tommy 2 weeks ago

        We’ve seen this movie before. I sincerely hope I experience as an adult, what occurred when I was a child in the 80s/90s – people doing anything to get rid of the homes they can’t afford by offering huge discounts and the keys to their car.

        Likewise, I hope the housing market’s fall is so precipitous that it compels the government and banks to roll back a large number of regulations (barriers to entry) – no stress test, no income verification mortgages, and initiate new government incentive programs/rebates.

        • Reply
          Raging Ranter 2 weeks ago

          Why would you hope for a renewal of reckless government policy? That is what created the mess in the first place.

          • Tommy 2 weeks ago

            Perhaps I didn’t phrase it properly. I want the government to get rid of policies such as the stress test. I want lenders to have the freedom to bring BACK things like no income verification mortgages. When the market is down, I want it to be easier for people to buy.

          • Alistair McLaughlin 2 weeks ago

            And those are exactly the policies that got us into this mess in the first place. We should not wish for a repeat.

    • Reply
      Tommy 2 weeks ago

      Yes it’s possible that prices may fall to 2015 levels again (since 2016 and 2017 home prices shot way above the historical mean), but keep in mind that even housing market crashes take years to hit bottom. If a correction of that scale is in the pipeline, it may take several years of steadily declining prices to reach it. The last major crash in 1989 took until 1996 to hit bottom.

      That being said, history is a just a guide. Perhaps the market can and will correct much faster this time around considering overall debt levels, enormous supply (of condos) to be unleashed, rising interest rates, stress test (which decreased purchasing power by 20%), investors unable to buy and be cashflow positive, the dearth of foreign buyers (ever since the tax and China reigning in capital outflow), and so on.

      Although I already own multiple properties, I’m also looking to buy when prices hopefully tank. They’re very high and unsupported by fundamentals.

    • Reply
      Takanome 2 weeks ago

      This market is not based on fundamentals, logic and common sense. It is based on speculation, FOMO, emotion and non-sense =). The future remains uncertain. Although we know what the likely outcome should reasonably be, I am not certain it will be so.

      Barring something drastic (which is a possibility too), I think there are too many young folks who are sitting on the sidelines who want to own. This is the wild-card that likely will save the collapse.

  • Reply
    Jay 2 weeks ago

    Bulltrap.

  • Reply
    Russ 2 weeks ago

    Do not read too much on those bank CEO or any hotshot realtors out there because they want to keep the game going. Real estate in GTA is at the start of a correction, not the end. Downtrend is what we need to be watching. The last real estate correction in the 1990s took 6 years to reach bottom. Take my word, we are looking for many years of downtrend in the housing sector.

    Inflation/hyperinflation, rising interest rates will fuel the downtrend and coupled that with low # of foreign/local investors in market. Right now do not believe any so-called positive report out there this is just a blip or a return to normalcy is imminent. The correct reporting will be real estate needs to correct fair market value so working middle class can afford.

  • Reply
    vnm 2 weeks ago

    That historical unemployment chart posted the other day was a real eye opener.
    I’d read that unemployment was less than 4% in 1929, but not that every recession since then, which happen like clockwork every 8 -10 years, was preceded by similarly low rates. Makes sense, labour costs go up, leading to inflationary pressures, leading to interest rate increases.
    We’re at that point with employment numbers now … if there isn’t a recession in the next 18 months give or take, it will be the first time since forever.
    Combined with record debt levels and even a slight increase in interest rates, ouch.

  • Reply
    DataDude 2 weeks ago

    Renters are being nudged to buy condos by unrealistically raising rents around the city. what was 1300 to 1400, 2 years ago – is 1900 now.

    Try renting a two bedroom apartment in any area. I find a lot of new immigrants in rental offices shocked to hear the rents

    • Reply
      Mmr 2 weeks ago

      Two bed room now go for 3000 in downtown core. I rented mine last year. But even with that lot of new investors can’t cover expenses. Which mean rent is still went up by lot less that how much asset price went up. That’s why you see other day it was report even with high rent half of people actually losing money.

    • Reply
      Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

      Well despite those rents, 44% of “investors” were still losing money month over month.

      I sold last year and when I was looking for a rental I was shocked at how competitive it was. RE agent was telling me that it was due to such a shortage of condos and supply in the market as a whole. Was getting a bit desperate so I tried calling some of those rental property managers. Oversee multiple buildings. From that person I was told that they also had record low vacancy because she had been noticing a bigger and bigger trend of people who had sold their properties and were looking to rent for a while. Do not know if there is a proven correlation, but it would make sense to me that as the ownership market turns there could be an increased flood into rental property. People need somewhere to live.

      Anyway, point I am getting at is that I think you should continue to be patient. Some landlords might try to jack up their rents by 20% to justify why they paid a 20% premium, people who just got out with some positive equity might rush into these for a little bit but ultimately rents are tied to income, not lower carrying costs. I believe the slowdown in ownership and new construction will lead to a recession, that recession will lead to job loss and lower the amount landlords are able to charge. A tenant with a good paying job can leave you’re rental for the one across the hall if its price drops and yours doesn’t. This could lead to more and more landlords becoming cash flow negative. As you said rent prices jumped big time in the last couple years. Let’s see how many of the smarter landlords who purchased in the last couple years allowed for even 15% correction in rent prices.

      • Reply
        Mmr 2 weeks ago

        I don’t know how it works. I rented same unit in 2012 for only 1650 even then it cover all my expenses. My agent last year told me it’s going for 3000. I was shocked to see people will pay this much so I told her no one in right mind will pay this much. Within 48 hour multiple people applied and it was rented. Is it really shortage of supply? Or too many immigrants? I don’t know. But I personally benefited if I am honest with high rental in Toronto. Things might change who knows. Time will tell.

        • Reply
          Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

          Sounds like you are in a solid position.

          • Mmr 2 weeks ago

            I am fortunate because I didn’t not by anything Toronto after 2011. honestly i didn’t have any money left to buy anymore. Maybe that’s turn out to be blessing I didn’t. Life is funny how things turn out.

        • Reply
          Tommy 2 weeks ago

          Very happy for you Mmr. Given your numbers, you are virtually immune to market fluctuations at this point. Vacancy rates are at their lowest, so competition is fierce. With rent controls in place, tenants that are paying less than market rents are digging in and not leaving their rental unit which causes further decreases in available units.

  • Reply
    Bluetheimpala 2 weeks ago

    totally agree Grizz.
    Very interesting read: https://www.quora.com/What-caused-the-1989-Toronto-housing-bubble-burst

    I see a lot of the same symptoms but specifically a stretch of ‘good times’ where businesses are booming and near record unemployment resulting in a run up in wages. Despite what many want to believe a new university educated worker is making more than 5-8 years ago. In advertising a starting position was $25-30K and is now $35-45K in most cases and I’ve observed that trend when I moved into software; even customer support is making $40K a year. This applies to those 8-10 years in; almost everyone I know is making $70K with many in the low $100K, that’s individual not HHI. With low rates everyone could finally get into housing circa 2013, which was great however rates never corrected and speculators entered after seeing the bonkers returns. Prices just kept going up and consumers started overextending themselves. Governments and industry liked the windfall and we kept the train going. People were making a ton and FOMO took hold in 2016-2017. Then HELOCs and other debt instruments blew up as well as community lending. I think you’re correct; there is much more at play than some exuberance and salary appreciation.

    • Reply
      Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

      Very interesting read. Looks like they touch on some very similar forces to today.

      Another interesting point I have come across. Some people blame the response to the US housing bubble to the measures taken after the dot com bubble. The US slashed rates, a ton of investment now looked for somewhere new to go and then flooded housing which had already been increasing for a long time.

      In 2014, the Oil price bubble blew. Canada slashed rates in half. 1% to .5% Housing started to pick up further in 2015 then went crazy in 2016-2017.

      • Reply
        Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

        Sorry blame the US housing bubble on responses taken after the Dot Com bubble

        • Reply
          Raging Ranter 2 weeks ago

          Exactly. Greenspan has interest rates at absurdly low levels (1% between 2001 and 2004) in order to “save” the economy from reverberations from the collapsing dot.com bubble. (9/11 was an afterthought, as the increased security and military spending was insanely stimulative.) The dot.com bubble itself may have been avoidable to a certain extent had Greenspan run somewhat tighter monetary policy during the 90s. He made his “irrational exuberance” speech in 1996, then completely ignored asset bubbles the rest of his career. Weird how a guy who was prescient enough to see trouble brewing in financial markets four years before anyone else was ultimately able to bury his head in the sand and inflate two of the biggest bubbles in history.

  • Reply
    boss 2 weeks ago

    I’m a realtor. In my opinion, the overall market will go down some more. And this will be led by the 905’s especially in areas with very high speculation activity like Richmond Hill, Aurora, etc. And Especially the larger detached homes say 2800 sf+ at $1.2M+

    I know SO many people who are just refinancing and re-mortgaging their homes in above areas just to stay afloat, as they missed the boat in 2017. Eventually these people will give up and have to foreclose. To make it more complicated, many of them have purchased pre construction that are closing now and going forward for the next 18 months.

    416’s and key areas will go down less, stay flat, or even slightly increase compared to 905’s

    However, in the long run, I just cannot see how real estate prices will not get higher and higher, much higher than now. It will happen. The path to that wont be a straight one, there will be ups and downs and some bigger downs but eventually, prices will sky rocket. I’m talking 10-15-20 years from now.

    So the key is if you want to buy now, as long as you don’t intend to sell in the next 1-5 years or so, then you will probably be fine. But if unsure, then don’t buy go rent.

    Now that’s the other problem, rents are insanely high now they are getting higher and higher. Multiple offers everywhere especially key areas…

    I think the market went ahead of itself from mid 2014 to mid mid 2017. Now it will pull back to 2015/16 levels and stay there for a while before it goes up again years from now. It might even go lower before it starts to go up.

    That’s my prediction…. I have done over 300 Transactions all over the GTA so I have a different perspective than just reading numbers and news articles.

    Cheers!

    • Reply
      Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

      I read that report by movesmartly as well Boss. What do you think happens to condo market that has twice the amount of “investors” than any of the GTA regions. Notice how for RH, Vaughn, Newmarket not a single one of them had more than 22% as their share of investors. 48% for condo based on who took possession in 2017, 44% of which lose money each month. Means they were presold in 2013-2014……….. right before the period you highlight as excessive

      • Reply
        Mmr 2 weeks ago

        I think condo market is different then detached when it comes to investors. Even back in 2010 I asked to concord development sales people who develop city place condos what percent are actually investors and they told me it’s almost 80 percent. My point is condo is always seems as an investment even 8 or 9 years ago and for rental but detached on those areas were pure purposes of flipping cause no one will rent house in suburbs. I know some one who lost 300k in Richmond area who try to flip it and bought it just for flipping in short term.

        • Reply
          Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

          Downtown condos should be much easier to rent out then a house in the suburbs I agree on that. But if your plan is to rent then it has been a losing one for a while as larger and larger percentages of investors go cash flow negative. Unless some of these investors end goal is to help subsidize rent for hard working Canadians, anyone buying recently is doing so to flip. Same motivation as detached buyers.

          Unfortunately it is a record number of condos hitting the market over the next 3-4 years……. not detached.

          • Mmr 2 weeks ago

            Yes true unfortunately condo investment don’t make sense either in recent time. But I don’t think long term detached market will do any better. The shortage of detached is kind of fake idea specially in gta. Maybe downtown detached houses are very few and some specific areas. In overall there are no shortage of detached in gta.

          • Tommy 2 weeks ago

            Conversely, the GTA will have imported several hundred thousand more residents in the next 4 years.

        • Reply
          frank diesel 2 weeks ago

          you own 1 condo as investment. everyone else here want market to crash and are not investors. they want to crash so they can get in and are very jealous of others that made money.

      • Reply
        frank diesel 2 weeks ago

        Boss Grizz. you are a renter? you are just another punk who wants real estate/economy to crash so you can get in. you and the regulars provide same shit analysis day in and day out on this blog.

        • Reply
          Grizzly Guys 2 weeks ago

          Was in, got out because I believe our real estate/economy will crash. Could have weathered it, had over 80% equity, but thought it was time to take my chips of the table.

          I got a sales call from a RE agency today that I had used quite sometime back asking me what my plans were in the industry. Told her to check back with me in 2-3 years.

          I have never gotten a sales call from a realtor asking if I was looking to buy………..must be a sign of the times………… wonder if their wallets have been taking a hit considering the are commissioned based and total sales are down 40%…….. hopefully not to many of them have mortgages on multiple properties.

        • Reply
          Raging Ranter 2 weeks ago

          Better get to bed Frank. You’ve got to get up extra early tomorrow morning to start your paper route. That mortgage isn’t going to pay itself.

          Here lies Frank.

          A victim of B20.

          The stress test killed him.

          R.I.P.

        • Reply
          Raging Ranter 2 weeks ago

          Hey Frank, which story is yours?

          https://www.communityforfairness.ca/our-stories

    • Reply
      vnm 2 weeks ago

      Is there an actual prediction somewhere in that drivel?
      You’ve recommended both buying and not buying, and said that in an indeterminate number of years prices might skyrocket or go lower.

    • Reply
      John 2 weeks ago

      There is not a single point in time where housing has not increased over the long period. This will forever be true, just like it is with gold.

      You use this as a sole reason to ‘buy now’ which is terrible advice, and why shitty realtors are nothing more than sales people.

      In fact, leveraging yourself improperly with real estate today could crush you tomorrow. If your lender comes to you in 3 years at the bottom of the market and wants their money back but your loan is under water, you lose everything.

      But that’s okay… because you, the realtor, collect your fees while the money is still in everyone’s pocket.

  • Reply
    ketchup chips 2 weeks ago

    There is no crash just minor correction. prices stay high for long time. most become renters forever. 2 million more people in toronto in 25 years. hold your property – make dolla dolla!

    • Reply
      vnm 2 weeks ago

      The best economies have the lowest rates of home ownership vs renting

      List of countries by home ownership rate (%)

      Romania 96.4
      Slovakia 90.3
      China 90
      Cuba 90.0
      Croatia 89.7

      ***
      Germany 51.9
      Hong Kong 51.0
      Switzerland 43.4

      • Reply
        Raging Ranter 2 weeks ago

        Interestingly, HK and Switzerland are both facing serious private debt bubbles as large or larger than Canada’s.

        Germany though is rock solid. Consumers there are no dummies. They pay cash for almost everything.

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