Toronto

Toronto Real Estate Inventory Up 110%, First Time Average Dips Negative Since 2009

Toronto Real Estate Inventory Up 110%, First Time Average Dips Negative Since 2009

Toronto real estate typically has a cooler winter, but there was some interesting data points from last month. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show that prices continued to soften across Greater Toronto in November. This was accompanied by a slide in sales, as well as a huge jump in inventory.

Prices Reach A Negative Milestone

The benchmark price is up, but still tapering for composites. The composite benchmark, which is a typical home, across TREB is now $744,700, a decline of $2,900 from the month before. This represents an 8.41% increase compared to the same time last year. In the City of Toronto proper, the benchmark is now $791,300, a 12.33% increase compared to the same time last year. These numbers are higher mainly due to the increase in condo prices.

Source: TREB.

The tapering of price growth is the highlight of this report. The 12 month increase of 8.4% is the lowest since March 2015. The benchmark price is also 8.78% lower than the peak benchmark obtained in May 2017. While prices are still higher than last year, they are dropping – there’s no denying that.

Source: TREB.

The average price also reached a new milestone, going negative on a 12 month trend for the first time in years. TREB reported an average sale price of $761,757 in November, a 2.35% decline from the month before. This represents a 1.92% decline compared to the same month last year. This is the first dip into negative territory since 2009, for the annual average price.

Source: TREB.

Toronto Real Estate Sales Buck The Seasonal Decline, But Are Still Down

Sales of Greater Toronto real estate typically make a monthly decline in November, but that wasn’t the case this year. There were 7,374 sales, a 3.60% increase from the month before. Compared to last year however, sales were down 13.72%. Breaking those sales down, 2,978 of the sales were in the City of Toronto proper. That’s a slightly better 11.78% decline for the City, when compared to last year. Many believe that the monthly uptick is due to new mortgage rules set to hit the market in January.

Toronto Real Estate Listings Are Up Over 110%

There’s a lot more inventory this year than last year, which should provide relief from climbing prices. New listings in Greater Toronto reached 14,349, a 3.72% decline from the month before. This represents a 36.42% increase compared to the same month last year. The monthly decline was substantially smaller than the typical decrease, and was way higher than last year’s record lows.

Source: TREB.

Active listings, which are the number of listings that remain at month end, also saw a big climb compared to last year. TREB reported 18,197 active listings across all segments, a 3.51% decline from the month before. This represents a yuge 110% increase compared to the same month last year. Once again, last year was record lows, so it’s expected to be higher. However, a 110% jump is a pretty rapid climb for inventory.

Source: TREB.

Toronto real estate continues to see prices soften with a decrease in sales, and more inventory. That may seem like a bad thing, but it shows that the market is responding to normal mechanics – which is a good start. However, if there was a boost to sales from people trying to squeeze in before the new mortgage rules in January, conditions can continue to soften even further.

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11 Comments

  • Reply
    Mike 1 week ago

    It’s already Game Over for TREB!

    These sites will no longer disappear as no one will be scared of TREB’s lawyers letters! TREB lost in court, they cant bully or scare anyone anymore. Supreme Court, yeah right, will never get there.

    This industry is going to drastically change. I wonder what percentage of RE agents will get wiped out. I estimate 80% as technology, stats and relevant advice takes over. Commissions will also get cut for the remaining agents.

    • Reply
      John 1 week ago

      I think your forecast is more grim than necessary. Sure, a reduction in realtors is expected, if not from technology, then from a cooling market. But at the end of the day as a millennial I will still turn to a realtor to facilitate and navigate the process of buying a home.

    • Reply
      bluetheimpala 1 week ago

      I agree with John. Just because there are YouTube videos on how to tile a shower doesn’t mean the majority of people actually do it even though it will save you thousands and thousands of $$$. Of those who try most will fail or do a bad job the 1st time and have to pay someone to correct, some will succeed on their next attempt once they learn the rope, very few will knock it out of the park.

      I can assure you what will happen is a bunch of good people will get fleeced. The good agents will always do good business. Your loser brother/cousin/nephew who failed at ‘professional gaming’ and ‘being dope’ but then though being an agent was cake walk will also burn.

      If having access to historicals means more private sales, because clearly that is all an agent is good for gathering stats, Toronto real estate is going to be a fucking mess and a ton of good people (read: seniors, ESL minorities, etc) are going to get taken advantage of.

      • Reply
        Alistair McLaughlin 1 week ago

        How is publicly available sales history going to lead to people being taken advantage of? It won’t. If anything, it’s the opposite. More price transparency means less fuckery in the marketplace, not more.

    • Reply
      Justin Thyme 1 week ago

      When home sales start to show up on ebay it’s game over.

      Methinks actually it is a market niche for an IT start-up: a buy-sell app for houses. All you need is a lawyer, not an agent.

      • Reply
        Tommy 1 week ago

        It already exists. I forget the name of the site/app (I think it’s called ontheblock) which allows you to bid on properties online and book viewings from the site.

        • Reply
          Justin Thyme 1 week ago

          But now the site will be able to give good historical comparative data. But it begs the question be asked, Will these sales show up on the TREB data base? Or should the app get the prices directly from the land registry office?

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