Toronto real estate saw a minor price acceleration last month, and condos were no exception. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show the price of a typical condo is just below the all-time high. For the first time since December, annual price gains stopped decelerating. This could be a sign of the market getting ready to make another boom… or it more likely has to do with comparing it to the wonky July we had last year. Yes, wonky is a technical term.
Toronto Condo Prices Are Just Under All-Time High
Toronto condo prices had mixed movements, moving lower across TREB, but higher in the city. TREB reported the typical condo price hit $501,400 in July, $1,000 below the all-time high the month before. The City of Toronto’s condo benchmark reached $530,200, up $900 from the month before. The divergence of the suburbs and the city continues through most indicators.
Toronto Benchmark Condo Price
The price of a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
The monthly and annual increase was mixed as well. The monthly price change in both the city and the burbs was the worst lowest movement since August 2017. As for the annual change of 8.33% in TREB and 10.15% in the City, those are actually higher than last month. The annual price gain has reversed deceleration for the first time since December. We’ve only seen a single month change direction so far, so it could be a blip that gets smoothed out over the longer run. One month is far from a trend, but there is a chance prices could accelerate further. Anyone who says there’s a clear up or downtrend for the market is full of s**t.
Toronto Benchmark Condo Price Change
The annual percent change of price, for a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
The median sale price of a condo increased across the board. TREB’s median sale price hit $485,000 in July, up 10.79% from last year. The City of Toronto’s median sale price reached $524,500 in July, up a massive 12.79% from last year. Remember, the median sale price isn’t adjusted for size or quality like the benchmark. Consequently, they have limited use in figuring out you would pay for a condo. They are a popular indicator for international buyers and figuring out dollar flow.
Toronto Median Condo Sale Price
The median sale price of a condo apartment in Toronto.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
Toronto Condos See Average Sale Price Rise Over 8%
The average sale price of a condo increased across Greater Toronto. TREB saw an average sale price of $546,984 in July, up 8.9% from last year. The City of Toronto reached an average sale price of $582,547, up 9.2% from last year. Much like the median, an average sale price isn’t useful for pricing a unit. It is helpful for gauging upgrade flow.
Toronto Average Condo Sale Price
The average sale price of condo apartments in Toronto, and the suburbs.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
Toronto Condo Sales Are Up Over 5%… With A Footnote
Sales of Toronto condos are up compared to last year, but that has limited meaning. TREB saw 2,002 condo sales in July, up 9.4% from last year. The City represented 1,415 of those sales, up 5.8% from last year. This time last year, TREB recorded one of the worst Julys for Toronto real estate sales, due to buyer uncertainty around policy changes. The bump higher may not mean all that much, since we’re not comparing it to a natural market month.
Toronto Condo Sales Vs. New Listings
The number of condo sales, vs newly listed condos per month in Toronto.
Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.
Condo Inventory Rises In The ‘Burbs, Falls In The City
New listings for Toronto condos fell across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 3,383 new listings in July, down 1.11% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,360 of those new listings, down 0.75 from last year. The drop in new listings had a mixed impact on total inventory.
The total number of active listings at month end showed mixed movements. TREB reported 3,984 new condo listings in July, up 0.22% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,583 of those listings, down 4.68% from last year. That means inventory was higher in the suburbs, but lower in the city.
Toronto Active Condo Listings
The number of condo listings available for sale in Toronto.
Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.
Last year this time, Toronto’s real estate market was still adjusting to the provincial policy changes. That made last year one of the worst Julys in the market’s history, with sales plummeting over 30%. It would have been surprising for this month not to beat on sales. Just like with the general and detached markets, there won’t be a clean read until the fall.
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This time two years ago, you couldn’t walk into a pre-sale centre and find inventory, agents would have bulk bought them for assignment resale. Now the developers still have stock, so demand is slower for sure.
Also going to be a number of people that can’t close on their new build when it registers, without going to a private lender. Since people will chase bad money with good money, I imagine they’ll take the private lender hit, and hope prices don’t fall (while pumping a massive amount of interest to the private lender). Sometimes this stuff is painful to watch.
Interesting, it looks like condos will do that thing where prices start to taper, make a small bump higher, before regressing to the mean line.
The dead cat bounce ..