Toronto

Greater Toronto New Home Sales Improve, But On Target For A Weak Year

Greater Toronto new home sales made a big improvement from last year. Altus Group data shows sales of new homes were up big in September. Most of the increases were in the suburbs, and a lot of the increase has to do with a slow comparison period. Year to date, Greater Toronto new home sales are much weaker than usual.

Greater Toronto New Condo Prices Rise, While Detached Fall

Greater Toronto new home prices are all over the place, with condos still rising. The benchmark price of a new single-family home reached $1,081,175, down 3.4% from last year. The condo apartment benchmark fell to $841,159, up 6.5% from last year. Single-family prices have been falling for two-years now. Condo apartment prices are showing smaller growth, but it’s still large.

Greater Toronto new home sales made a very large rise compared to last year. Altus reports 3,061 sales in September, up 73.0% from last year. Breaking that down, single-family homes represent 954 of the sales, up 283.1% from last year. Condo apartments represent the other 2,107 sales, up 38.6% from last year. Much of this has to do with the combination of a weak first half of the year, and last year’s weakness.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total August new home sales in Greater Toronto.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto new home sales year to date (YTD), provides a little more context to these numbers. There were 24,410 new home sales YTD, up 43.3% from last year. However, the number is still 19.67% below the 5-year median sales volume for this period. It’s a big increase compared to last year, but still far below the typical volume for the period. This could indicate buyers from last year we’re delayed into a combined cohort this year. If that’s the case, a volume increase may not persist. It’s impossible to tell at this point if it’s a bump, or new trend.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales YTD

Total YTD new home sales in Greater Toronto for August.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

In the City, sales are seeing big growth – just not as fast as the suburbs. There were 1,332 sales in September, up 9.3% from last year. Condo apartments represent 1,294 of those sales, up 6.8% from last year. Single-family homes represent another 38 homes, up 442.9% from last year. It’s a big increase from last year, but also much smaller of an increase than the 905 is experiencing.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total new home sales in Greater Toronto for August, by region.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto New Home Inventory Rises Over 34%

Greater Toronto is experiencing strong inventory growth for new homes. There were 18,745 new homes for sale in September, up 13.4% from last year. This is a 34.4% increase compared to the same month last year. Sales increased faster than inventory causing a mild bump in relative demand.

The sales to active listings ratio (SALR) made a small increase. SNLR reached 16.3% in September, up from 12.52% last year. The market is a buyer’s market when the ratio falls below 12%, and prices are expected to fall. Above 20%, and the market is a seller’s market – where prices generally rise. Between 12% and 20%, the market is balanced – and priced right for demand at the time. The indicator needs to stay within a range for some time, for prices to respond to the demand level.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales To Active

The ratio of sales to active listings for new homes in Greater Toronto, for the month of June.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto’s new home market is improving, but there’s a lot of mixed signs. Single-family home prices are still falling, but the declines are getting smaller. Condo prices are rising, but the increases are decelerating. Sales made a very large increase, but most of the rise is in the suburbs, and has to do with the comparison period.

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4 Comments

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  • Reply
    Yan 3 weeks ago

    Of course volumes are going to rise. You have to consider when B-20 came out, people that saw no risk prior were hoping to get a deal. When they saw a “deal,” they took it. If you saw no risk before, you certainly don’t see much risk at a 10% discount.

    The real question is how many of these people would you gamble your funds with?

  • Reply
    Quon 3 weeks ago

    “It’s because everyone wants to live here”

    Yeah, but home prices increased in 95% of cities? How sustainable do you think that is?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alyyale/2019/10/25/home-prices-jump-in-95-of-cities-reaching-record-high/#6f67668d3e24

    • Reply
      Trader Jim 3 weeks ago

      Exactly. Rising prices have more to do with monetary insanity than anything.

      BOC said yesterday there’s going to need to be a “material” impact before the next cut occurs. That means no friendly, pump on the gas cuts for an unnecessary credit boost.

  • Reply
    Snarky 3 weeks ago

    Everything is fine, everything is great, the economy is booming and rates are holding. CMHC expects prices to climb after a two year slump. When I hear/see these articles I think if it’s so great why do these wins need explanation, why the public comments, why the gov subsidy, why is encana leaving, why the consumer negative sentiment? I keep thinking “the man” doth protest too much. Great video reminder to look under the hood…. https://youtu.be/L641nDfauQI

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