Canadians May Want To Prepare For Higher Mortgage Rates Soon: BMO

Canadian bond yields are on the rise, and a big bank has forecast it will take mortgages along for the ride as well. The latest research note from BMO focuses on climbing longer term bond yields. The bank sees this as just the beginning, and sees modest growth for the next two years. They also expect rising yields to drive mortgage rates higher along with it. 

Canadian Bond Yields Are Soaring, Meaning Higher Mortgage Rates Are Coming  

Global bond yields are climbing, and it’ll push mortgage rates higher if this continues. The Government of Canada (GoC) 5-year bond yield is now 1.096% today, up 26.25 basis points (bps) from a month before. Around a third higher than a month ago is quite the boom, driven by global central banks making hawkish statements last week.

Since debt products compete with each other, rising bond yields take mortgage rates with them. The GoC 5-year strongly influences the 5-year fixed mortgage rate. “With the upward pressure in longer-term bond yields renewing itself, the risk that 5-year fixed mortgage rates could move higher is mounting,” said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist with BMO. 

Adding, “recall that this was also the case in early-2021 and, after fixed rates began to creep up, the pullback in bond-market interest rates stopped the move.”

Canadian Bond Yields Forecast To Rise Further

Unlike earlier this year, the rise in bond yields isn’t thought to be a blip this time. The recovery is well underway, and more importantly inflation is rising and looking less transitory by the day. BMO sees these factors pushing the 5-year GoC yields up 40 bps in 2022, followed by another 30 bps from the year before. That’s pretty much double the rate seen about a month ago. 

Even though yields would still be low (lower than inflation, certainly), it’s enough to push mortgage rates higher. “That’s not a game changer, but enough to pressure fixed rates gradually higher and out of the sub-2% range,” he said.

This Is Probably The Ideal Time To Lock In Your Mortgage Rates

There are a lot of factors to consider when locking in mortgage rates. If you’re buying, the impact of rising rates are something to consider. People renewing might now find a better time to renew, pending Canada doesn’t pull a double-dip recession. 

“Should I lock in? The age-old question is ultimately a personal finance issue, but it’s just about the right stage of the cycle to do so,” said Kavcic. “That is, while longer-term yields are still (relatively) low, and before the BoC begins to raise rates—the latter is likely a 2022 H2 story.” 

Mortgage rates will still be low, and possibly lower than inflation for a while. They just won’t be this low for much longer, unless Canada falls into another recession soon. Economists have been calling rising rates for the past few months, warning the longer it takes the more sudden the increase will be. Climbing bond yields seemed unlikely until last week, which even left some banks scrambling to correct their assessment.

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13 Comments

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  • Tia Wolfe 11 months ago

    Canadian are on so much wacky tobacky, they think a double dip recession would be good news for home prices. No need to work while sugar daddy is PM.

    • Ahmed 11 months ago

      a good economy means prices will rise, and a bad one means prices will rise. What else do you need to know? It’s clearly not a bubble.

  • RW 11 months ago

    You should hear real estate agents talk about mortgage rates. They think the country is “bankrupt” but still somehow able to see home prices rise forever.

    • Whiskey Foxtrot 11 months ago

      and the highly skilled immigrants are coming to help push prices up, even with elevated unemployment and lower growth projected than their home countries.

      • Otto Ruck 11 months ago

        And anybody with equity in Vancouver and Toronto will be looking to buy a 2nd or 3rd rental property before the rates go up, in anticipation of many more highly skilled immigrants to arrive over next 4 years..

      • BCGuy 11 months ago

        I’ve never met any of these “highly skilled” immigrants you speak of. I’m sure they exist I just haven’t met them.
        I’ve met a ton of international students from India that want permanent resident here so they can move to the US though. Most work part time at Tim Hortons and Dominos while going to communist clown college to get indoctrinated so they can get more points on their application for permanent resident.

        Met a couple trades people working manual labor but they were here because their significant other was at University.

  • Jason Chau 11 months ago

    More people need to understand why rates are rising. This isn’t due to rising productivity leading to a major change in how things are done. It’s stagflation.

    The BOC managed to avoid a housing correction for a shot at the worst scenario possible.

    • Whiskey Foxtrot 11 months ago

      What’s going to prevent the government from not engaging in further rate suppression though? If the won the last election while actively promoting wealth inequality, these clowns electing them will be fine with being locked out of ownership for decades. to “own the Cons,”

    • J_Morrow 11 months ago

      You are correct, sir.

    • Lisa D 11 months ago

      I agree it’s stagflation

  • Bernard 11 months ago

    It’s silly for the government to play this game. I don’t need my house to rise every day by thousands, and then fall in a couple of years to ruin my community. Simple, stable housing. This is all people need to be happy.

  • Rhett Hare 11 months ago

    They’re much happier living large by flipping homes and taking cash out refis.

  • Shannon Kalyn 11 months ago

    Maybe “Build back better “ will help ? Wake up everyone. The ongoing pandemic will not equate to continued prosperity.

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