Canada

Canadian Real Estate Industry Forecasts Prices Rising Over 9% Next Year

Canada’s real estate industry expects next year to be slower than this year, but still sees massive price growth. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the industry group representing Canada’s Realtors, released their 2021 forecast. They expect next year will see large growth, just not as large as we’ve seen this past year. Ontario is forecasted to lead the country, while B.C. real estate is expected to put a drag on the numbers. 

Canadian Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Rise Over 9% 

Canadian real estate prices are expected to make a massive increase next year, according to the industry. CREA forecasts an average sale price of $620,404 for 2021, up 9.1% from this year. For 2020, the industry expects the average sale prices to finish 13.1% higher than 2019. In 2019, prices only increased 2.4% at the national level, so these are all humongous prints following. The industry must be hoping for a pandemic every year. 

Ontario Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Rise Over 16%

Ontario real estate prices are expected to lead home price gains at the provincial level. CREA forecasts the average sale price will hit $823,656 in 2021, up 16.3% from 2020 levels. The industry expects 2020’s year to finish at $708,377, up 17.1% from last year’s average. In 2019, prices only increased 6.3% from the previous year, so these are very ambitious forecasts. It’s worth mentioning Southern Ontario real estate prices, outside of Toronto, have been responsible for most of the price gains. Toronto suburbs have seen prices grow much faster than the City.  

CREA Real Estate Price Forecast

CREA’s forecasted change in average real estate sale prices across Canada, with a breakdown by province.
f = forecast. Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

B.C. Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Remain Flat

British Columbia’s prices are surprisingly not forecasted to move much next year. CREA is forecasting an average price of $780,276 for 2021, up a relatively flat 0.3% from 2020. The association expects 2020 to finish with an average of $778,012, up 10.7% from the previous year. In 2019, the average sale price across BC fell 1.0% from the year before. Not sure what’s behind the volatile forecast, but BC is forecasted to be the worst performing provincial market in Canada. This follows just underperforming in 2020. 

Quebec Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Rise Over 13%

Quebec real estate prices are forecasted to be the second fastest rising prices, just after Ontario. CREA is forecasting the average price will reach $407,569 in 2021, up 13.6% from the same month last year. The industry group is forecasting 2020 will finish at an average of $358,754, up 13.3% from last year. In 2019, the average sale price only increased 3.7%, so these expected jumps are very large. 

CREA’s forecast is much more optimistic than those shared by less vested interests over the past few weeks. No one was expecting price declines this year, but the end of mortgage payment deferrals are expected to motivate some sellers next year. Banks like RBC, ratings agencies like Fitch, and risk firms like Veritas have all forecasted declines. Although, those less than positive forecasts are a pretty hard sell to the public right now, considering the record real estate sales during a recession. 

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9 Comments

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  • Patrick 4 months ago

    This year interest rates fell. I’m sure they’ll fall to -1.25% to print this forecast next year.

  • Kasha 4 months ago

    Ha ha, what else they can predict?

  • straw walker 4 months ago

    Canada needs the same law England has…The unexplained wealth order,,if you buy goods /real estate with money that you cannot prove were from legal sources then then those assets are seized.
    A funny story from this is a women bought some 30 million dollars worth of clothes …which were seized…now what do you do with the clothes??

    • Paul 4 months ago

      Auctions. Be careful what you wish for…

    • Marco Von Marcovich 4 months ago

      This is already in play with the A-lenders and real estate as you have to prove where every penny of the down payment came from.

  • poetrycraig 4 months ago

    The CREAs optimistic forecast brings to mind e.e.cummings poem
    a salesman is an it that stinks Excuse

    Me whether it’s president of the you were say
    or a jennelman name misder finger isn’t
    important whether it’s millions of other punks
    or just a handful absolutely doesn’t
    matter and whether it’s in lonjewray
     or shrouds is immaterial it stinks

    a salesman is an it that stinks to please

    but whether to please itself or someone else
    makes no more difference than if it sells
    hate condoms education snakeoil vac
    uumcleaners terror strawberries democ
    ra(caveat emptor)cy superfluous hair

    or Think We’ve Met subhuman rights Before

  • V 4 months ago

    I wouldn’t listen to Real Estate people like CREA. They will tell you prices will go up so all the dummies over paying will keep over paying. Let’s not forget how prices plunged 30% in 2017 after a sharp rise. Realtors are crooks and a lot of them are pathological liars.

  • Rick Hyne 4 months ago

    Prices going up. Next post. Prices going down.

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