Canada

Teranet: Canadian Real Estate Prices See Biggest November In 24 Years

Canadian real estate prices made record gains last month. The TeranetNational Bank of Canada House Price Index (TNB HPI) shows major markets making very large advances in November. Analysts that created the index note this is the biggest jump for the month in at least the past 24 years of data. However, they also note a couple of signs that may indicate things are starting to slow. 


Canadian Real Estate Prices See Biggest November Rise In 24 Years

The C11, an aggregate index of Canada’s 11 largest real estate markets, made a record advance. The indexed price movement increased 0.93% in November, and is up 8.96% from the same month last year. National Bank analysts note it was the strongest monthly gain for November in at least 24 years. This follows October’s record advancement, and continuing the abrupt trend reversal for annual home price growth. Seasonally adjusted, the index creators’ note there’s some deceleration, “suggesting that the uptrend of the published (smoothed) index could slow in coming months.”

Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Toronto’s Suburbs Are Seeing Prices Rise Faster Than In The City

Greater Toronton real estate prices are growing at the fastest pace in three years. Prices advanced 0.78% in November, and are now up 10.32% from the same month last year. The index is now at an all-time high, although Greater Toronto lagged surrounding areas. In the rest of the Golden Horseshoe, price increases ranging from 11.7% for Peterborough to 18.1% in Oshawa. 

Toronto Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Are Still Not Above 2018 Highs 

Greater Vancouver real estate had a big month, but it’s still lagging Canada’s annual gains. Prices advanced 0.97% in November, and are now up 6.31% from the same month last year. The region is still 1.01% below the July 2018 all-time high, but at this rate that’s not very far off, is it? 

Vancouver Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Real Estate Prices Are Some of The Fastest Growing In The Country

Greater Montreal real estate is seeing some of the fastest price growth in the country. Prices advanced a huge 1.42% in November, and are now up 14.48% from the same month last year. This represents an all-time high for the Greater Montreal area, which is seeing annual growth at almost double the national number. Prices in the region didn’t grow nearly as fast as Toronto and Vancouver did during peak growth, but it’s gaining ground quickly. 

Montreal Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Canada’s big real estate markets put in another multi-year record for price growth, with almost no exceptions. Segment by segment, is another story. Condo apartments are relatively slow in major markets, but a boom in larger suburban detached homes are more than making up for the slow down. Price growth is being fueled by record low mortgage rates, combined with a total lack of downside seen during a recession. If consumers don’t see prices fall during a recession, they likely feel any downside has been largely eliminated. 

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2 Comments

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  • TorontoLife 4 months ago

    Well hasn’t it? I mean if prices don’t fall during a recession it seems unlikely they will ever fall.
    I’m beginning to believe that the current real estate market will not behave as it historically has – with prices only ever appreciating.

    • giantbill 3 months ago

      looks like. the real estate will never fall again.

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