The Canadian real estate industry just became a little bearish. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the trade association representing the country’s agents, has revised their 2018 and 2019 sales forecast. The organization now sees sales falling even further this year, than they did during their prior forecast. Declines are now expected to be over 50% higher than previously expected.
Canadian Real Estate Sales Forecasted To Drop 11% In 2018
Canadian real estate sales are on the slide, and CREA is finally acknowledging it. The industry now expects Canadian real estate sales to fall to 459,900 in 2018, an 11% decline from last year. In 2019 they expect sales to move slightly higher to 474,800, a 3.2% increase from this year’s forecast. However, sale numbers in 2019 will still be 3.96% lower than sales in 2017.
Canadian Real Estate Sales 2018 Forecast
Canadian real estate sales forecasted for 2018, both March and June forecasts.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
To contrast, in March they were much more optimistic. Canadian real estate sales were previously expected to fall to 479,400 in 2018, a decline of 7.1%. In 2019 they had previously expected sales at 496,500, 3.6% higher than their 2018 forecast. We did point out during the previous forecast the decline should be closer to 12%. It’s nice to see them finally catch up.
Canadian Real Estate Sales 2018 Forecast Change
The percent change of Canadian real estate sales forecasted for 2018.
Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
Ontario Real Estate Forecasted To See Over 35,000 Fewer Sales In 2018
Ontario real estate sales are expected to drop by the most number of units in 2018. CREA is now forecasting 187,200 sales in 2018, a 15.9% decline from 2017. Sales are expected to rise to 198,800 in 2019, an increase of 6.2% from 2018’s forecast. Although 2019 is still expected to be 10.65% lower than 2017. At this time, the forecast likely isn’t modeling any changes to employment due to changes to minimum wage or full-employment.
British Columbia Real Estate Sales Forecasted To Drop Over 17%
The largest ratio of sales expected to decline is in British Columbia. CREA is forecasting 85,400 sales in 2018, a 17.7% decline from last year. In 2019 they expect sales to increase to 88,200, a 3.3% increase from this year’s forecast. Sales in 2019 are still expected to be 14.99% lower than 2019 sales.
Quebec Real Estate Sales Forecasted To Rise Over 3%
Quebec real estate is one of the few markets expected to see sales rise this year. CREA is forecastings 85,650 sales in 2018, a 3.7% increase from 2017. In 2019 the industry expects annual sales to rise to 87,000, a 1.6% increase from this year’s forecast. The 2019 increase would be 5.38% higher than last year’s sales. Quebec and Nova Scotia are the only two provinces the industry expects to see higher sales this year.
Alberta Real Estate Sales Forecasted To Drop Almost 8%
Alberta real estate sales are forecasted to drop for the next two years. CREA is forecasting 52,700 sales in 2018, a 7.9% decline compared to last year. In 2019 they expect sales to drop to 51,900, another 1.5% decline from this year’s forecast. That would bring 2019 sales down 9.29% from 2017’s number. Ouch.
The sales forecast is actually still a little optimistic if you think about for even a few seconds. Residential real estate sales are currently 15.4% lower than they were at the same time last year. In order to hit the 11% decline they are forecasting, the second half of 2018 would need to outperform 2017. Remember, last year had what the industry referred to as a “B-20 mortgage rush.” They attributed a rise in sales in the last quarter to a one-time event. Now what’s the one-time event they’re factoring in now?
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