Canadian employment slipped last month, according to one of the world’s largest payroll processors. ADP Canada National Employment Report shows non-farm payrolls decline in May. The decline was due to construction, which led the country to the first May drop in over seven years.
ADP Canada National Employment Report
The ADP Canada National Employment Report is a monthly measure of non-farm employment. The numbers are from their real-time database of over 2 million employees. By tapping their information, they can make estimates on actual empirical data. In contrast, Statistics Canada (Stat Can) employment is based on a smaller, survey based set.
ADP numbers are not a replacement for government numbers – they’re a supplement. Since they have a more broad data set, industry specific events are in focus. ADP numbers are great for forecasting trends yet to appear in Stat Can’s datasets. They’re also great for deeper industry insights.
Canadian Payroll Drops By Over 16,000 Jobs
Canadian non-farm payroll dropped from the record high. Seasonally adjusted payrolls fell to 16,519,461 in May, down 0.10% from the month before. The drop works out to 16,020 fewer jobs than the month before. Declines aren’t unusual, but typically employment rises in May. This is the first monthly decline for May in over 7 years.
Canadian Employment Monthly Change
The monthly percent change of Canadian payrolls for the month of May.
Source: ADP Research Institute, Better Dwelling.
The Biggest Loss of Jobs Are In Construction
Of particular interest to the real estate industry is construction, which led lower. Construction payroll dropped to 1,013,127 in May, down -1.10% from last year. The decline represents 11,223 construction payrolls, the majority of last month’s decline. It’s the first May decline over the past 3 years. It’s also the largest decline over the past seven years. The shift is something worth watching.
Canadian Monthly Change By Industry
The monthly change of payrolls by industry in May 2019.
Source: ADP Research Institute, Better Dwelling.
Last month’s ADP numbers show an unusual movement that may surface its head soon. This is the first monthly decline for May in over seven years. Most was due to a decline in construction, which will impact residential investment.
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FYI at an average of $100k/pop, that’s $1,100,000,000 hit in income. That’s a big hit for just a month.
If prices don’t rise, expect a lot more cancellations in Vancouver. Already 5,000 units delayed to deal with the oversupply. A city growing faster than Toronto, with less building, and more density.
Don’t worry.
Ottawa will legalize global dictators and war criminals to park their money into Canadian real estate, that a dilapidated shack in the middle of Ontario or Quebec will become “world class” at a million dollars.
Cottage county has seen price increases by the double digit percentages every year, but retirees tend to be very miserly. Only money laundering could account for such huge increases.
INB4 MM posts some ‘Sensation’ or whatever drivvle with a statscan article he doesn’t read…probably something about how this is unrelated to the decline in real estate and the increase in other areas will offset everything else plus immigration plus hamster pants (ostrich with rhind stones of course). I guess we’ll assume all these housholds are dual income and have been saving for a rainy day because construction workers are by far the most fiscally responsible labour pool right? Bye my muffin. I’m busy so I won’t have time to battle today but you never know. Blue is always watching. Tock. BD4L.
50% of Toronto residents earn less than C$35,000 after-tax yearly. The condo and luxury housing boom will eventually come to an end if Scheer proposes to ban foreign money laundering.
How is this important to real estate? Record building is happening.
Click on the Residential Investment link at the bottom of the article. A drop in construction means lower residential investment, and that’s the first pin in widespread GDP losses.
Who will build the condo towers if the workers are being laid off?
Thaaat’s pretty bad…. summer time is PRIME construction season (longer days, favorable weather), and to see construction jobs being slashed is NOT a good sign.
It’s a good sign for us Geneeration Z’ers (those born after 1996).
We don’t believe that it’s sustainable that university degree holders are being told to work for free for work experience, while a land owner who doesn’t even Grade 8 education could increase his net worth by hundreds of thousands a year because he bought real estate at the right time before Canada allowed mass immigration.
Let the real estate prices fall!
#Toronto is failing us
#Work for free
#Greedy Landlords
#BOOMER Retirement
@WW: The article has backed up statistics, facts and scientific evidence. You only have one liner rhetoric. Who will believe you?
Toronto is a city that is under decline for the bottom 99%, and the 1% high income earners will eventually feel the heat either through a recession or civil unrest.
However, Canadians are passive, so I doubt that they will revolt against a system where profits are capitalized but losses are socialized through taxpayer paying for bailouts of corporations.
Never count on socialized losses changing. It leads to weaker currency though, so watch for FDI outbound to rise as the wealthiest move into foreign held assets.
Exactly. Canadian elites will hide their money in Cayman, BVI and France, while those temp workers are harassed by armed thugs in blue for miscalculations in their earnings and tax rates.
Canadian taxpayers will have to bail off the housing downturn and the mortgage losses for those in debt.
On June 12 you reported that Canada has never had more homes under construction. Two weeks later it’s reported that 11,000 construction jobs were lost at the same time. Am I missing something or do these two stories contradict each other?
It means the projects aren’t rolling over, and commercial construction is slowing. Typical end of cycle stuff.
First commercial space starts to receive less demand. Peak jobs.
Then residential construction slows. Peak buying.
Normally the first round of employees would go to work on starting the next round of buildings. This keeps happening as the cycle moves up. When the first batch can’t find work, or there’s no projects for them to move to, they stop working.
Not contradictory, but foreshadowing the fall from peak building.
They don’t teach this in Economics class.
You’re probably one of the few reasonable posters here.
April is when the carbon tax being rolled out. Price of gasoline since April in Montreal has been between 1.25 to 1.32 $/liter. Also record breaking gasoline price in BC. We are now beginning to see the effect of high inflation in Canada. Immigration is not a solution in a high inflationary environment. Immigrants and Whites of ancestral origin will eventually leave Canada.
Canada has been selling itself to immigrants as a prosperous nations with full of opportunities. Talented people will now avoid Canada. Plus the Canada weather sucks. That does not make Canada attractive anymore to internationals investors.
Poloz says that there is no inflation, because the CPI measurement excludes the vital costs, and they measure it based on the discounts of their Ivey League membership, or the cost of gas prices which fluctuates every day.
The average rent for a one-bed apartment in Scarborough or NY was $1,500 back in 2015, and now it’s almost $1,900 for new tenants. The apartment is still in the sky, and no major capital maintenance have been done.
Canada is an immigrant trap now. Two people from my work quit and went back to India. Said it was not worth staying here ( Toronto ) But hey the money launderers love it. Most immigrants do not come in with a lot of money and prefer to live in the larger cities which are expensive. Fortunately the labor market is hot and people are landing jobs but they dont pay well to have a good life here . A lot of them go through their hard earned savings and leave some try to tough it out. Any recession shock will be pretty bad news as housing is a necessity. Once you cant afford it you either leave the country or get a card board box.
Those Indo immigrants are lucky that they escaped from the lies of the Canadian immigration PR scams.
I remember one man from a former French colony telling me that someone from India mistaken him for being from India, and was that clarified, the man from India asked him, “What are you doing here wasting your life?”. The man from India was already leaving Canada via Toronto for good.
Read my comment regarding newcomers from even Venezuela regretting moving to Toronto.
I see a correlation of higher rent increases, lower purchasing power and a debased currency making it harder for working class immigrants to succeed in Toronto, despite the major wage increase under Wynne.
There’s 80,000 trades and Construction workers just in BC alone, not counting the admin, finance, ans various other careers in that industry. Then add on their dependents and the number affected gets very big indeed.
Next we’ll talk about the psychological and real impact of every homeowner losing equity in their homes. Guess what? Over half bought in the past 5 yrs or so. therefore they cannot sustain a 35% or more correction.
What’s going to surprise everyone is just how big and nasty this gets, because most do not know how gigantic the Construction/Housing industry has become in BC. it’s by far and away BC’s largest industry and is the “Economic Driver” of the province.
See all those public sector jobs? Alot of them are gone when this thing implodes because it will take with it billions in tax revenues.
We Gen Z (born after 1996) could care less if some greedy and likely racist Boomer is concerned that their plywood bungalow is losing value because they either inherited or bought very cheaply while working at No Frills or Zellers.
If it weren’t for urbanization of major cities and mass immigration luring professional class immigrants into a trap, those plywood houses would be worth 1/5 of their million dollar value.
Could some of the drop be related to finishing the Champlain Bridge in Montreal?….but then again, they started building the REM train lines, so likely not. I do find the figure to be a head scratcher. Vancouver can’t be all of that.
It wasn’t finished in May, they just opened one direction yesterday and it opens officially Monday next week. The brunt of the pre-fab concrete shop work has been completed months ago, and while they’re finishing up what’s needed to switch the traffic over there’s probably a lot of temporary structures to remove and finishing to be done. Afterwards they’re starting the demolition of the old bridge, and just the mobilization for that will probably require large crew sizes. Other major infrastructure projects like Turcot and the thousands of smaller road work is probably keeping the workers fully utilized. Real estate is also starting to boil in Montreal, so I doubt residential construction has any slack.
The job losses in construction probably come from BC if the data is accurate.
Imagine being such a self centred narcisisit like MM that you balk at “construction guys” losing their livelihoods as long as your “investments” hold value.
Who cares if there is a housing shortage in van (massive homeless pop), lets just block all new supply so my store of value holds (real estate), its value.
I think maybe Ill take the same attitude, cant wait til scumbag globalists like soros push for massive wealth taxes on your real estate (meanwhile hiding billions in trusts/fake charities), good luck paying 5% on your appraised value every year. Lol rekt.
Yup, 35% of BC’s GDP is tied into real estate or last time I checked?
look out below.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/british-columbians-our-governments/government-finances/financial-economic-review/financial-economic-review-2018.pdf
See page 9.
It seems to indicate that the direct GDP contribution to BC is 18% (for 2017). Toss in the 8.6% from construction and the uplift this provides to other industries (everything from Audi’s to lumber) and you could get to 35% really quick.
oh snap, nice DD RainCityRyan- I appreciate it.
A bear real estate market remedy is the recent extradition law that mainland China is trying to impose on Hong Kong which will eventually become law and so will other mainland Chinese laws that will end the democratic and capitalist privileges of 300,000 Hong Kong residents with Canadian passports. Many of them have plenty of money to buy condos and houses in Canada which are relatively very cheap because of the very poor Canadian dollar vs US dollar exchange rate. Hong Kong residents who do not have Canadian passports will also be looking for safe places to park their money away from the potential grasp of the Communist Chinese government and some of that will be in Canada.
This was recently profiled in the CME4PIF Blog, and the shocker is the reason why at the end of the story:
https://cme4pif-thoughts.blogspot.com/2019/06/vancouver-bubble.html